Posted on 05/26/2022 8:11:56 AM PDT by blam
(Look at that beautiful corn in the background)
Texans need to be prepared for the grid to fail. Again. A new bombshell report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) shows that while Texas has made some progress in increasing surplus energy flow to the grid for times of heightened demand, power is going to be extremely tight this summer, and Texans should prepare to expect rolling blackouts during the hottest months of the year.
The recently released 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment found that Texas, along with parts of California and the Southwest, are in an “elevated risk category of energy emergencies.” The extra pressure on the grid comes from a combination of abnormally high temperatures and doubt conditions, poor upkeep and maintenance of generators across Texas, persistent supply chain issues, and increasing demand. NERC also sighted cyber threats, wildfires, and a shortage of coal generation inputs as major issues that they will be monitoring as the days grow hotter and sufficient energy supply to the grid becomes more vulnerable.
While Texas still lacks the energy capacity necessary to meet demand at its highest points during extreme weather conditions, NERC acknowledges that Texas has made concerted efforts to mitigate the issue. The Lone Star State has increased its anticipated reserve margins, largely thanks to the increased installation of solar and wind power capacity. Overall, Texas’ renewable energy capacity is 4,100 megawatts higher than last year. This increase in solar and wind capacity does not come without its own challenges, however. The industry is still working out what to do about “solar trips,” when solar resources shut off due to circuit problems or grid disturbances such as lightning or fires.
Texas’s much-maligned grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), was touting the recent increases in reserve energy capacity just the day before NERC dropped its sobering report.
“Two years ago we had 12%,” said ERCOT interim President and CEO Brad Jones.
“Last year we had 15 to 16 and this year we have 23% reserves. So, you can see our reserves have grown over each of those years. We feel very confident about our position this summer.”
That confidence now rings as ironic in the face of Texas’ elevated risk category for summertime energy emergencies.
Despite ERCOT’s gains, University of Houston Energy Fellow Ed Hirs says Texas has not done enough. “We have less dispatchable power on the grid than we did last summer,” Hirs said. “We have about 63,000 plus megawatts available. That’s about a thousand megawatts less than we had last summer. Demand is growing.” And at the same time that ERCOT is boasting that it’s ready for summer, they had to call for energy conservation over the weekend as several generators failed.
Texas needs to invest in generators in a big hurry. Typically spring provides a respite from extreme temperatures and an opportunity to work on the grid and generational capacity, but early heat waves have already put a near-maximum strain on the grid in 2022. What’s more, generators are loath to invest in expansion at a time when inflation is high, cash is tight, and they’re not sure who is going to pick up the bill. The Houston Chronicle reports that so far, Texan consumers are bearing the brunt of it.
The long and short of it is that the grid just can’t keep up with increasing pressures of demand and market volatility. The old rulebook for planning and operating energy reserves for the summer months is out the window. “Now we’re really looking at extreme weather,” NERC Director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis John Moura said Wednesday. “And what we’ve all learned in recent history, is that extreme doesn’t mean rare.”
Buy a hybrid, propane/gasoline or at a minimum, propane. I would suggest you get one that is big enough to run your AC. My generator that I use during hurricane blackouts is 7550 watts, I run everything. Cylinders of propane gas do not go 'bad' like gasoline.
But the grid is robust, that’s why all the auto manufacturers are pimping EVs, right?
A lot of my neighbors are going solar - there was a crane across the street yesterday lowering solar panel.
This may be the best way to get off the grid.
As if because of global warming it’s suddenly hot in Texas?
Well I will say this texas city is so packed with new people it’s hard to get around. To get a burger in my local bar and grill you have to go on a Tuesday afternoon
Everything now seems to wreak havoc on the delicate little system.
Funny, things weren’t like this in the past.
I’m getting real sick of the bs game these people are playing with so many lives.
The green world is deadly.
Could or could not.
no worries...it’s part of an incredible transition on the way to a 3rd world country...
Good post and you’re right. All on purpose.
Was driving behind a car from Pennsylvania and one from CT, this morning.
Grrrrr.
Our roads/stores/restaurants are definitely more crowded, these days.
Spot on!!
They don’t care how many suffer/die, etc., for their evil agenda.
Why would Texas do that?
Texas had an estimated 8.2 million vehicles registered in 2016.
Imagine if even half that number are EV’s, what would that do to the grid?
The 2021 power grid failure showed how vulnerable the power grid is.
Which run on those evil fossil fuels, the same as the ones which fuel power plants.
How about just using the power plants to begin with? I have a sneaking suspicion that regular use of an efficient power plant even year round, would use less energy than a generator would to make up for green energy short falls.
My solar system in Alabama is large. And after my upgrade it'll produce probably 90% of my power, including charge an EV for ~200 miles per week. But even with all of that it's not enough to go off grid.
If I wasn't getting an EV, producing over half my power is about as much as I can do and get a decent ROI. Anything above that is running into the law of diminishing returns. It's only because I'm adding an EV that upgrading will pay for itself.
And the EV will bring with it a variable demand. Basically, if my wife and I drive it on average 30 miles per day, and if the range between fully charged ("full" being 80%) to reaching range anxiety (let's say under no circumstances we let it get below 120 miles left on charge) means my effective range is about 150 miles. Thus at 30 miles-ish per day we can go 4 days or so in a row without charging it before we decide to charge it even if we don't have good solar. So each day when we come home with the EV we can decide if we'll charge it with the intermittent charger powered only when the solar batteries are charged well enough to make it through the night on battery power and have excess for charging. There are a few times a year where I'll go 4 days in a row with little to no sun and I'd choose to charge the EV with constant power (read: power I'll pay for on my power bill). Thus, I can't go completely off grid. But I'd move the needle bigly so that most of energy costs are basically pre-paid by the cost of the solar system. That's a fixed HELOC payment, and is better than hoping the Dims don't jack up gas and power rates soon.
Back in the 80's in Houston many cars had Michigan license plates....every now and again one would have a bumper sticker that said, "Will the last person out of Michigan turn off the lights."
I’ve already experienced a few rolling blackouts in my neighborhood this month.
Nuclear power generating plants should be up and running before any gas/coal generating plants are closed.
Wind and solar 'ain't' going to do it.
Y’all need a bunch of nuke plants
And on Abbott's election chances. He better guard against Demonicrat sabotage at Texas power plants.
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