Posted on 05/23/2022 9:30:20 AM PDT by Browns Ultra Fan
US home prices were growing at a near 20% YoY rate for the latest Case-Shiller National home price index report. But mortgage rates have soaring like a SpaceX missile shot.
The result? Closed sales for April 2022 are down -9.5% YoY.
Of course, I am moving to one of the metro areas in the USA where closed sales fell only -1.10% YoY in April: Columbus Ohio. I should move to San Diego CA where closed sales fell -21.4% YoY.
Of course, the US still suffers from lack of available inventory for sale.
April new listings are down -5.7% YoY. Columbus Ohio didn’t change from April ’21. San Diego is down -18.4% YoY for new listings.
Rising mortgage rates? Inflation? What a total fiasco.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Also there are 1.4 million homes still sitting under-construction waiting for supplies to finish them and put them on the market.
...and millions of invaders in line for a new house.
Not unless they give them away free like they did in 2008 then we are screwed.
In our area, one of the poorest metropolitan areas in the nation, you cannot find a house in an even not so safe neighborhood for less than $400,000. In one of the top ten most dangerous zip codes in the country you have to pay $250,000.
Almost every new home is $1,000,000 (bare minimum), many of them are purchased by people who already have three or four other homes in different cities or towns.
It has been a long time since there have been middle class homes on the market because people are afraid they will wind up on the street if they try to move.
I just spoke to a customer who stated a truckload of LVL(Laminated Veneer Lumber) that he ordered December 3, 2021 arrived last week. If he wanted another load, the lead time was estimated at August.
This is a product used for large spans or load carrying beams.
There are no a lot of substitutes unless the engineer changes the design.
Typically, lead time is less than a month.
This is just one example. Over the past 18 months there have been extended lead times on windows, doors, electrical panels, appliances and even OSB.
Lower home prices would be a huge relief on inflation.
Across the road from me (Huntsville, AL) is a 450 acre cotton field sold to developers last year. Access, grading, leveling and underground drainage prep began this spring.
I’m wondering if the developer(s) will carry on if new sales slow dramatically. The last few years here, the housing market has been red hot in an affordable market in this mid-sized city.
Will that continue? Time will tell.
What’s “YoY?”
Year over Year
Also a huge part of the problem is various equity groups that buy SFR’s and rent them out thus taking them off the market. I know of one group in Agoura Hills that is funded into the Billions and was an active buyer during the foreclosure period 2008-2011.
There are something like 3x as many Airbnb rentals available in Manhattan, NYC than there are apartments available for lease.
YoY means Year over year. Over a period of one year.
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