Posted on 04/20/2022 3:55:11 AM PDT by blam
Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience reduced output due to soaring fertilizer prices.
The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg.
Chemical fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, are the most applied nutrients for high-yielding rice cultivation. Farmers have been particularly vulnerable to soaring fertilizer prices as some have reduced the amount of nutrients to save costs. This threatens future harvests as production declines could stoke food inflation for a crop that feeds half of humanity.
Humnath Bhandari, a senior agricultural economist at the institute, said the 10% drop in global rice production is a “very conservative estimate.” He said if the Ukraine conflict continued and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice output could be even more severe. This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, similar to the one that the UN has been warning about.
Russia and Belarus are big suppliers of every major type of crop nutrient. Western countries have sanctioned both, which have limited fertilizers shipments to the rest of the world, crimping supply and why prices are soaring. On top of this, Moscow has reduced or halted nutrient exports.
Nguyen Binh Phong, the owner of a fertilizer shop in Vietnam’s Kien Giang province, said nutrient costs have soared three-fold over the past year, forcing farmers in the region to reduce fertilizer use by up to 20% because of rising prices.
“When the farmers cut fertilizer use, they accept that they will get lower profit,” Phong said.
Bloomberg outlines a significant problem: Unlike most crop prices, the price of rice has gone down, not up, which will compress farmers’ margins even more.
Governments across Asia have kept rice prices under control to maintain social order. Some countries offer generous fertilizer subsidies to farmers to keep yields plentiful. For example, India will spend $20 billion this year to shield farmers from soaring nutrient prices, up from the $14 billion budget before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Bhandari said it’s “inevitable” that rice prices will go higher; “It has to be reflected somewhere.”
Maybe the world is in the beginning stages of a food crisis and could worsen next year as crops of all sorts could experience harvest declines because farmers are spreading fewer nutrients due to high prices.
Global food prices will remain at record-highs (or at least elevated levels) as forward-looking markets expect tightening supplies in 2023. This will give rise to continued social unrest (see: here & here) as the dominos fall in the weakest countries.
The Leading Rice Growing States In The United States
And, the reason rice fields are flooded is to kill weeds.
The US fertilizer plants are having shipping issues.
Lucky for rice farmers. They get to use water for weed control rather than pay the inflated prices, if even available, for herbicide.
Sanctions are a tool that affects a lot of people other than those that are the target.
Because 1.81% of the world attacked 0.56% of the world, we seem intent on screwing up 100% of the global economy.
The 85% of the world that is not involved in the sanctions is going to figure out how to get even.
Yup. The nutrients that rice crave are similar in chemical structure as arsenic .
I read a report a few years ago that every sample of rice taken in China exceeded the US FDA standards for acceptable arsenic levels.
I try not to eat anything from China.
Same here. Their produce is crap.
Whatever the left “warns” us about, they are planning on implementing.
Prepare accordingly.
I mean how many 25 lb bags should I have stock piled?
4?
10?
Rice does last forever if stored properly.
Brown rice does not keep well.
White rice does much better.
I suppose that how much you store depends on how much you eat.
FWIW, oats are nutritionally better than white rice and keep very well. IMO, they are a great survival food. One can live on them for years. I know.
Yeah I’m not a fan of brown rice.
Didn’t know that about oats though, thanks for that!
Sugar and maple syrup should be in good supply.
BTW, if one lives almost exclusively on oats, the 10# box that you can buy at Sam’s Club lasts about three weeks.
Don’t forget salt and good quality multivitamins.
Sugar keeps forever, but can cake up. I store mine in 1/2 gallon size canning jars. The jars are somewhat expensive and like all glass subject to breaking. OTOH, they do hermetically seal, don’t rust, and critters can’t chew through them. There are pluses and minuses to every storage method.
Maple syrup, along with honey, are replenished naturally every year.
You mean the 10 pound box?
The darker rice contains more oil. Oil goes bad faster.
You can say that again. I found out mostly the hard way.
I don’t keep more than 5 lb at a time of brown rice, but I keep it in the freezer. Ditto for red rice and black rice. FYI red rice is the Power House of nutrition in the rice family.
I have white rice stored in half gallon tanning jars with desiccant pouches. It will last much longer than it will take us to eat it.Jasmine rice running Thailand is generally lower and arsenic than most rices. Ditto for imported basmati.
Yup.
Since oats are virtually all I eat, yeah, the ten pound box lasts about three weeks as the primary source of nutrition.
I’m sure supplemented with regular food that everyone else can eat, that can be extended for many more weeks.
Does red rice tend to go rancid like brown rice does?
Yeah but knowing Big AG and farmers, they’ll sell Arkansas rice to China if they can get more money for it. Globalism sucks.
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