Posted on 03/25/2022 6:09:54 AM PDT by Browns Ultra Fan
We’ve got Trouble in Potomac City!
The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve is going deeper into inversion.
The short end of the Treasury curve is rising, as expected, but declining at the 5 year tenor and beyond.
The aggregate Treasury Index is plunging as Fed Funds Futures signal 8.341 rate hikes over the next year.
Mortgage rates? Climbing as mortgage refinancing applications fall (as expected).
Is The Federal Reserve actually run by The Office’s Michael Scott?
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Investors pay close attention to the Treasury yield curve, or slope of market-based yields across maturities, because of its predictive strength. An inversion of the 2s/10s has signaled every recession since the 1950s, according to Principal Global Advisors. That’s true of the early 1980s recession that followed former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s inflation-fighting effort, the early 2000s downturn marked by the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and various corporate-accounting scandals, as well as the 2007-2009 Great Recession triggered by a global financial crisis, and the brief 2020 contraction fueled by the pandemic.
Inversions have already struck elsewhere along the U.S. Treasury curve, suggesting the dynamic is broadening out and could hit the 2s/10s soon. Spreads between the 5- and 7-year Treasury yields versus the 10-year, along with the gap between 20-and 30-year yields, are all now below zero.
“The yield curve has the best track record within financial markets of predicting recessions,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy
at Medley Global Advisors in New York. “But the psychology behind it is just as important: People begin to factor into their minds interest rates that are perhaps too restrictive for the economy and which could lead to a downturn.”
Naw..aint nothing gonna happen. Brandon is in charge. Everything is gonna be just peachy.
Dont you all have any faith in the pig faced worthless c-sucker?
So much for the myth “bonds are a safe haven.” What a bath the bond market has taken of late.
“Fed Funds Futures signal 8.341 rate hikes over the next year.”
Idiocy to make such numeric claims.
One of the easiest ways to slow this down is to change their energy policy. Instead they chose to dance with the world’s devils.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.