Posted on 02/26/2022 3:39:46 PM PST by Hojczyk
Here’s an interesting Twitter thread from someone named Riho Terras, a member of the European Parliament, posted a few hours ago. Obviously we’re not in any position to vouch for the accuracy of this thread (and some of it seems dubious), but pass it along in the interest of broad coverage:
THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.
Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.
The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.
If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.
Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.
Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Spring approaches. The ground will soon turn to mud. The roads will be covered by defenders and/or clogged with destroyed vehicles. A bad supply situation will become much worse. New, follow on tracked units will be cut off and out of supplies. Their crews will abandon them. Supply routes are everything. They cannot remain open without air superiority and aerial denial neither of which Russia has or is likely to achieve in the near future.
“Will all that Russian armor soon not be able to operate?”
They will become more confined to the roads, where it will be easier to target them with Javelins and NLAWs. Choke points will be easier to establish by killing lead vehicles, or creating obstacles.
That’s exactly what the Finns did to them 80 years ago.
Then the Russians said, “Enough of this”, and bombed Helsinki into submission.
I’m waiting to see if the ghost of Simo Häyhä shows up....
Luulen että näen häntä
Yup. I wonder if Putin will do the same thing?
Putin is not the only leader to suffer recent humiliation. Difference is that unlike Putin, Biden is too stupid to know it!
I have had conversations where similar sentiments have been presented. My sense is that the urge to volunteer for Military Service is going to be seriously diminished over the next few years.
My boy lost high school classmates as well as others whom he came to know very well in the following years, yes, due to ‘politics.’ I have felt his anguish at times though he tends to be very stoic for the most part.
I do not possess enough insights or knowledge to be able to determine the sanity of Putin or others. I have a pretty good idea about our own politicians and their rogue accomplices.
I suppose that I will be obliged to wait until the Books are opened in order to learn.
“ Russia’s difficulties will make a Chinese-Taiwan war less likely.”
Maybe China will begin to assess a better historical opportunity to seize long sought territory and resources in Siberia. Maybe more.
There is no honor among thieves. If Putin’s Russia becomes enough of a pariah (e.g. thermobaric barrages of cities), the International community might welcome a Chinese relief attack in the East. Chance of a lifetime for some of that sweet hydrocarbon supply that China needs so badly.
I’d like to see. Would you have a link? Thanks in advance.
CC
“I expect he will try and force Ukraine into accepting a treaty of neutrality, and eventually move his forces back into the 2 breakaway areas east which he will absorb permanently.”
I agree 100%. But, he needs to take Kyiv.
If the Kiev government goes pro-Russia, I predict Western Ukraine will break away and form The Republic of Ruthenia, based in L’viv.
It hasn’t happened yet. I’ll bookmark this and send it to you when it does.
I suspect that Putin’s ignorant rants are an act to intimidate small European countries, and that he is doing the bidding of the ex-KGB consortium that keeps him in power as their front man. There might be some overlap, but the ex-KGB/GRU mafia is not the same group as the remaining oligarchs. Perhaps the ex-KGB mafia got out of Russian stocks and bonds months ago, then positioned themselves to buy up assets now for 10 kopeks on the ruble.
The irony is he’s going on about Nazis, but saying pretty much the very same things Hitler said about Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938-39.
“Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals.”
How would a Ukrainian officer know what is said in Putin’s “lair”? Was he behind the curtains listening? Give unto me a break.
China will re-supply the Russians, before they run out of missiles etc.
Putin seems to be surrounded by sycophants. He thought Ukrainian people would welcome him. He was wrong.
The article rings true. 10 days is what he has, or less.
If he tries to slaughter Ukrainian women and children then native Russians will rebel against Putin.
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