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“Some Unpleasant Math” – The Fed Has Two Options: A Recession,Or Years Of Very High Inflation
Zubu Brothers ^ | 1-30-2022 | Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist

Posted on 01/30/2022 3:10:20 PM PST by blam

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To: C210N

That would be ok with me. A silver dime for a gallon of gas seems fair.


21 posted on 01/30/2022 3:28:34 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: blam

Only an idiot, or a Democrat, or Joe Biden, would think this inflation is temporary. But I repeat myself,


22 posted on 01/30/2022 3:33:30 PM PST by DaxtonBrown
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To: blam
...A dirty little secret about the economics profession is how imprecisely we understand the inflation-generating process

The dirty little secret is that they do understand the inflation process. It results from increasing the money supply. They do everything in their power to hide and obscure this. It is a very sneaky way to tax liquidity. Not only that but as it pushes up the prices of everything they get extra capital gains taxes . This effectively turns their hidden currency tax into a hidden wealth tax as well.

If that were not incentive enough for the Government to create Fiat money it also reduces its debt load by making the debt effectively smaller. No wonder we see tools like this fellow trying to hide what inflation really is.

23 posted on 01/30/2022 3:36:04 PM PST by Nateman (Xi Jinping is the most diabolical enemy America has ever had. 🍊)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Reagan had one. The other one was Carter, 1980.


24 posted on 01/30/2022 3:36:06 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: dsrtsage

Or they could stop spending us into oblivion.

But that would make sense, and as we know they don’t have any.

FJB!


25 posted on 01/30/2022 3:36:42 PM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

“Reagan had one. The other one was Carter, 1980.”

Point taken! 1980 hit while Carter was still in office.

Recessions are normal. Avoid them artificially and you will get a depression. We used to go through recessions with a lot less wahh-wahh.


26 posted on 01/30/2022 3:40:33 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (If It Aint Woke Don't Fix It.)
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To: blam

Nonsense...

Why do we go back to the same people that have failed at their jobs?

A lot of our troubles could go away by lowering energy costs. Allow drilling in Alaska, the Gulf, Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Allow for drilling in the States.

Build new clean coal plants, nuclear plants and slowly phase out the Windmills.

Then end the Covid madness cut all income taxes for 5 years, eventually replace all income taxes with a sales tax of 10%, encourage businesses to come back by giving them tax incentives and put tariffs on imports for companies that do not build plants here.

Balance the federal budget and pay down the debt by selling federal lands back to the States.

Abolish the IRS and the Department of Education. Consolidate and reform the alphabets agencies, and if they can’t they are not fixable then abolish them and start over.

Finally secure the border, you can only come here if you are bring skills to the country that are in need, cut off all handouts for people that are here illegally, begin to repatriate them back to their country.

That would be a good start.... I know it’s a fantasy.


27 posted on 01/30/2022 3:41:13 PM PST by Enlightened1
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To: Enlightened1
As long as we're fantasizing, return the National Parks to the States too.
28 posted on 01/30/2022 3:43:38 PM PST by SaxxonWoods (If It Aint Woke Don't Fix It.)
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To: plain talk

Sorry I did not do a paragraph for those who cannot extrapolate. If we continue with accelerating inflation or if we go into real recession/depression the result is that we cannot buy stuff.


29 posted on 01/30/2022 3:52:18 PM PST by arthurus (covfefe n)
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To: blam

In the long term, we are all dead.


30 posted on 01/30/2022 3:53:22 PM PST by rdcbn1
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To: blam

It all started on day one when the sonofabich canceled the pipeline. All downhill from then. Thanks democrats for putting this puke in office. Ukraine and Taiwan will probably be thanking you too as the Afghanis already have.


31 posted on 01/30/2022 3:58:43 PM PST by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: blam
The Fed Has Two Options: A Recession, Or Years of Very High Inflation

The Fed has no options. They will have both a recession and years of very high inflation.

The is because the Government insists on spending money it does not have and effectively having the Fed print more money to cover the payments. Inflation is guaranteed.

Hyperinflation eventually chokes off the economy and guarantees a recession. That still does not stop inflation.

We have seen this movie before. We know how it ends.

32 posted on 01/30/2022 4:00:53 PM PST by flamberge (Believe half of what you see, and none of what you hear)
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To: blam
"A dirty little secret about the economics profession is how imprecisely we understand the inflation-generating process."

Those of us in the real (non-political) world know it all too well. When the government prints and spends trillions, it has to disappear through inflation. It's as simple as that.

33 posted on 01/30/2022 4:03:25 PM PST by norwaypinesavage (Capitalism is what happens when you leave people alone.)
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To: arthurus

I interpolate just fine. Your statement made zero sense. People can buy things and will continue to buy things. I bought things throughout the 70s and 80s. I remember double digit inflation and interest rates.


34 posted on 01/30/2022 4:09:46 PM PST by plain talk
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To: blam

It’s caused solely by Biden and liberal policies. Competition lowers prices, right now with crappy supplies everyone has to raise prices, but get ur country producing oil and running without restrictions prices will drop bc all goods are available and everyone will be going for market share


35 posted on 01/30/2022 4:14:30 PM PST by pangaea6
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To: blam

there are two basic causes of any inflation,
1. “too much currency” chasing
2. “too few goods/services”

the politicians have printed money like it was going out of style, trillions of fake dollars (with zero backing of any significant ind) and just doled them out (putting millions of American workers on welfare, effectively)

these trillions of new dollars are now chasing whatever goods and services exist in the marketplace

BUT

the very same politicians have seen to it that we have far less goods and services available......by converting millions of American workers into welfare recipients.....so they are NOT producing anything for the marketplace

plus, the politicians have seen to it that we now also have supply distribution blockages and screw-ups, so that much of the remaining supply cannot even get to market in the first place

thus,
inflation is double=compounding

it is artificial in that it is mostly politician=produced

it is real, however, in that market prices still (as always) reflect supply and demand

get used to it.
today’s prices... (yours may vary somewhat)..
$5.39 for gasoline
$10.17 for a miserable think cafe hamburger
$3 for a cup of coffee
$6.25 for a mocha or latte
$2 for a doughnut
$4000 for rent on a one bedroom apartment

again, prices vary in different locations, but they are most all going UP

little tv dinners which were $1.25 are now $2 (small size)
regular tv dinners which were around $2.99 are running $4.79

symphony tickets have doubled ($250 a pop for just average seats)

we won’t even mention football tickets, ha!
but just parking there is $55 to get your car out of the lot
so you can figure the rest


36 posted on 01/30/2022 4:16:55 PM PST by faithhopecharity (“Politicians are not born. They’re excreted.” Marcus Tillius Cicero (106 to 43 BCE))
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To: blam

Yeah, that is exactly what caught my eye, too: “...our baseline view is that most of the inflation will prove temporary”

The fed pumped $5 or $6 trillion into the economy overnight. It’s going to take a LONG time for the inflationary effect of that to get worked off.


37 posted on 01/30/2022 4:23:46 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (81 million votes...and NOT ONE "Build Back Better" hat)
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To: blam

The fed can raise interest rates with minimal damage as long as Brandon cuts taxes. Which he’ll never do.


38 posted on 01/30/2022 4:25:07 PM PST by Inkie ( )
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To: jeffersondem

It’s like Los Angeles...”We keep spending more and more on the homeless problem, but every year we have more homeless.”


39 posted on 01/30/2022 4:26:09 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (81 million votes...and NOT ONE "Build Back Better" hat)
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To: blam

Great. We’re in luck. /s

Biden will find a way to give us both.


40 posted on 01/30/2022 4:28:55 PM PST by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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