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“Some Unpleasant Math” – The Fed Has Two Options: A Recession,Or Years Of Very High Inflation
Zubu Brothers ^ | 1-30-2022 | Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley global chief economist

Posted on 01/30/2022 3:10:20 PM PST by blam

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To: dsrtsage

LOL! Thread winnah!


41 posted on 01/30/2022 4:29:46 PM PST by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: blam

There is another option: raise unemployment by slashing the Federal government. There isn’t a more deserving group of people to be unemployed. Eliminate regulations and let small businesses thrive. Give America it’s freedoms back. Stop printing money. The Fed has yet stopped “quantitative easing”. Then increase interest rates to 15% overnight. Get this crap over with fast. The last time we had inflation like this the Fed’s slow and incremental interest rate increases lengthened stagflation. The long term solution is to abolish the Federal Reserve and shutter the vast majority of the federal government.


42 posted on 01/30/2022 4:30:51 PM PST by ConservativeInPA ("Goats are like mushrooms. Because if you shoot a duck, I'm afraid of toasters." - Joe Biden)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

“It’s like Los Angeles...”We keep spending more and more on the homeless problem, but every year we have more homeless.””

We are missing several of our homeless around here. Maybe they heard of LA generosity and headed your way.


43 posted on 01/30/2022 4:42:44 PM PST by jeffersondem
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To: flamberge

Wait until Russia and others dump the Petrodollar entirely, and they all flood back to the states.


44 posted on 01/30/2022 4:44:30 PM PST by Aut Pax Aut Bellum (What did Socialists use before candles? Electricity)
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To: Bonemaker

WWIII could get us out of our economic woes...


45 posted on 01/30/2022 5:08:33 PM PST by EEGator
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To: blam
They can't raise interest rates significantly without forcing the Ged Gov into bankruptcy; or, which is more likely, repudiation of the debt by a population that got all of the bill and almost none of the benefits.

The Federal Reserve has no choice but to allow inflation to wear down the real value of the national debt.

46 posted on 01/30/2022 5:51:59 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: blam
Core PCE inflation just hit roughly 5%

Inflation is higher than 5% and has been for some time. Federal government statistics are rigged to understate inflation. One reason is to reduce Social Security inflation adjustment payments and another reason is to manage political appearances.

The Fed will not raise rates significantly because it doesn't want to hurt the Democrats in the fall elections.

47 posted on 01/30/2022 6:05:15 PM PST by T Ruth (Mohammedanism shall be destroyed.)
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To: pierrem15
The Federal Reserve has no choice but to allow inflation to wear down the real value of the national debt.

True.

48 posted on 01/30/2022 6:08:10 PM PST by T Ruth (Mohammedanism shall be destroyed.)
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To: EEGator

Transitory. The sun is transitory. It’s just transitory for 10 billion years.


49 posted on 01/30/2022 6:12:06 PM PST by Flick Lives (The CDC. Brought to you by Pfizer.)
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To: Flick Lives

It’s all perspective...


50 posted on 01/30/2022 6:15:44 PM PST by EEGator
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To: SaxxonWoods

Recessions are normal. Avoid them artificially and you will get a depression. We used to go through recessions with a lot less wahh-wahh.

The Fed, attempting to control the economy, will inevitably make a bad problem worse.


51 posted on 01/30/2022 6:17:52 PM PST by Flick Lives (The CDC. Brought to you by Pfizer.)
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To: T Ruth

I agree with you that the fed is not going to raise rates nearly as much as they claimed they were because they don’t want to hurt Democrats in an election year.

The problem for them is 3 twenty five basis point rate hikes and some tapering aren’t anywhere near enough to wring the inflation out of the system. So they’ll have to keep raising rates - a LOT. Or we’ll keep having sky high inflation. I see no way the economy isn’t in serious trouble in 2024 just in time for the Democrats to get really wiped out.


52 posted on 01/30/2022 6:28:29 PM PST by FLT-bird
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To: FLT-bird

Maybe the Trump loss will be beneficial for the goals of his supporters.


53 posted on 01/30/2022 6:32:03 PM PST by TTFX ( )
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To: blam

LOL
The people at Federal Reserve are supposed to be geniuses. The Alan Greenspans and Ben Bernankes of the world have told us so repeatedly.
So who is this Morgan Stanley bankster to say otherwise?
As long as we have the Federal Reserve we will have perpetual plundering of the middle class and savers. If it were not for the Fed and the IRS, Congress, the BigBanks and the Deep State would have less control …. And that would be an improvement over the status quo.


54 posted on 01/30/2022 7:00:58 PM PST by Honest Nigerian
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To: blam

There’s no transparency... so does it really matter? And yes.. there is NOTHING you can do about it.


55 posted on 01/31/2022 9:36:19 AM PST by dmam2011
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