Posted on 12/15/2021 8:56:23 AM PST by DownInFlames
Are we headed for a recession? If the Fed raises rates, then YES. The stock market for the most part will be on a downward correction across the board.
Why? Cheap fossil fuels drives our economy. You cannot shock it to go green. Inflation, open borders, COVID vaccines, crime, and a corrupt/incompetent government at all levels will be the cause. Taxes will have to increase to cover the Trillion dollar spending increases by the Democrats. You cannot blame Trump on this one. The Democrats own it and Biden signed these bills.
As with Jimmy Carter, interest rates will rise. I lived though the Carter years and Biden is making the same mistakes. It is very possible inflation will return to 1980s level and when it does, based on history, the Fed will raise interest rates to 12-15%. For those of you who haven’t bought a house yet, get off the couch. I remember paying 21% interest on. $60,000 house in 1980. It was insane. We had to wait days to get an appointment at the bank. T-Bills will be back in demand very soon.
The stocks to buy after winter is over will be travel, solar, and oil stocks. They are going to get hammered. Furthermore, retailers count on November and December for 75% of their revenue. They aren’t even close. Be ready by being cash liquid for some great bargains in the stock market.
Why? Cheap fossil fuels drives our economy. You cannot shock it to go green. Inflation, open borders, COVID vaccines, crime, and a corrupt/incompetent government at all levels will be the cause. Taxes will have to increase to cover the Trillion dollar spending increases by the Democrats. You cannot blame Trump on this one. The Democrats own it and Biden signed these bills.
As with Jimmy Carter, interest rates will rise. I lived though the Carter years and Biden is making the same mistakes. It is very possible inflation will return to 1980s level and when it does, based on history, the Fed will raise interest rates to 12-15%. For those of you who haven’t bought a house yet, get off the couch. I remember paying 21% interest on. $60,000 house in 1980. It was insane. We had to wait days to get an appointment at the bank. T-Bills will be back in demand very soon. The stocks to buy after winter is over will be travel, solar, and oil stocks. They are going to get hammered. Furthermore, retailers count on November and December for 75% of their revenue. They aren’t even close. Be ready by being cash liquid for some great bargains in the stock market.
The Fed can NOT control inflation right now. It is not politically expedient to do so. They may SAY they’re going to do something, but what will actually happen will be the opposite.
A substantial sell-off is coming soon IMO. Market valuations and leverage are sky high. Plus there are legions of “investors” who have never before witnessed a prolonged and severe correction. The rush for the exits will be something to behold.
Headed?
SMDH
The Bidumb administration will just laugh it off, as they always do.
No, definitely not.
We’re NOT headed for a recession. We’re headed for a collapse.
The FIAT currency systems of the world are at an end... over the next few months, there will be a total collapse. It must be.
The only way to bring on PM-based NESARA/GESARA is thru FIAT collapse.
Do you remember the term ‘stagflation?’ Interest rates combined with inflation..... enough said....
That’s one reason I got into crypto lately. It is only going to go up.
There is another dimension to the Fed’s problematic situation: it cannot substantially increase rates because it will have political implications (i.e., the Dems will accuse the Fed of damaging them politically).
Also, if another COVID wave ripples through the country increased rates will stymie recovery efforts.
The Fed put itself in a box.
Concur
Faster than a speeding bullet.................
Made a correction.
The problem is many other people are doing the same thing so how do you determine a fair value for an asset like crypto?
More power to you if you can do it. I stick to things that I can value through ratios and cash flow analysis.
Both parties increase the size, power and scope of government.
Both parties love to spend.
Both parties lie about it.
I agree with much of your sentiment, but wouldn’t it make sense to save cash, wait for these sky-high interest rates, and then buy a home? Surely, the housing market will crash with a substantial increase in interest rates. Then, after buying, refinance your mortgage when the next group of globalists calls for lower rates.
Come on, if inflation is sold as a good thing, you know they’re going to sell the inevitable recession as a good thing too. As long as their puppet is dancing the tune, anything that happens is a good thing! Smile, be happy, line up for your government cheese and booster shot - one stop convenience! ;-/
New highs do not come at the start of a bull market.
If the fed signals they will raise rates sooner, rather than later, the market will rotate from risk on (stocks) into interest bearing vehicles.
People seem to be expecting an increased taper from the Fed’s buying of bonds. Thats not a market mover per se. However, the Fed has to address inflation. The only way they can do this is to raise interest rates. This acts like towel—slopping up the cash running around.
The problem is that the government continues to pump MORE cash into the system. A quick look at the M1 (money supply) over the past couple of years is downright scary.
So, are we headed to a recession? Sure. This happens every time we peak in our markets. But will it arrive suddenly or in an expected manner? That is the big question.
True inflation rate 15% vice 13% using 1980 formula.
...It is only going to go up....
After the last couple of weeks...that statement might not age well. I think long term it will be fine. But the gyrations are mind boggling for those with timid stomachs.
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