Posted on 10/07/2021 8:11:21 AM PDT by Onthebrink
Xi Jinping’s options
Let us go through his options in broad terms. First, Beijing would doubtless prefer to win without fighting, true to Chinese strategic traditions.[6] That is not because party magnates harbour scruples over using violence, or goodwill towards Taiwan. It is because aggressors love peace.[7] A bloodless triumph lets them get their way while sparing them the dangers, hardships, and costs of war.
But it is increasingly doubtful that Taiwan will capitulate without warfare. Polls reveal that an overpowering majority of islanders now define themselves not as Chinese but as Taiwanese.[8] As a corollary, they reject the legitimacy of the mainland’s claim to be their rightful sovereign.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
With nonexistent leadership atop the one country that could slow them down? Absolutely... if the Chinese aren’t going to take advantage of this golden opportunity now, they never will.
In a word: YES...........................
That being said, Germany and the United Kingdom were each other's largest overseas market before World War I broke out.
Before the Anschluss, the Austrian Nazis were so ruthless, even the German Nazis had to tell them to tone it down.
If we think that there is a chip shortage NOW, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Will never attack. Will just announce they are coming in at certain date and that will be that.
In the case that China invades amphibiously, the Taiwanese should simply extend pipes out 100-500 yards into the sea and connect them with a petroleum-based solution. When the invasion begins, pump the solution out, let it float, and when the invasion approaches, set it on fire from tip to toe of the western part of the island.
That would confuse the f*** out of the Chinese.
The Chinese have said it is inevitable. They view is as theirs and intend to take it back force…
Not according to the stock market.
Norman Angell even wrote a book (in 1910), “The Great Illusion”, arguing that the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous.
You really need to stop gaming
I still think “no” but I don’t have a crystal ball.
Chinese communist bureaucrats are extremely factional and risk averse. While they all agree Taiwan belongs to China and have no concern about loss of life, they also know and fear that any miscalculation could mean the end of their careers, their lives or even collapse of communist power.
Threatening Taiwan and keeping up the strident propaganda is costless. The world expects it anyway. Its their own form of “virtue signaling.”
Regardless, Taiwan needs to do MUCH more to defend itself.
Joe Biden’s not going to have their back, and Japan’s just going to sit there. Might as well fight to win.
Throw in precision scientific instruments, lenses, pharmaceuticals and more and people have no idea how important Taiwan is to the world economy.
Analysis ignores international political considerations. The coming year offers China an unprecedented window of opportunity—with the US leaderless and floundering around, the rest of the West caught up in self-inflicted energy crises and supply chain mismanagement, other allies becoming willing but still unprepared. And with the US hamstrung by its own stupidity, not much chance the others, small powers, will risk national suicide when the US turns out to be a no show.
Every single country in Europe was set back economically by at least two decades if they were lucky (United Kingdom, Italy) to a century or so if they weren't (Austria-Hungary, France) if they weren't.
They want to invade Taiwan for what purpose?
Because Grandpa’s still mad that Taiwan got away 70 years ago?
Grandpa’s in the grave. He doesn’t care anymore.
China wants more people to take care of?
They can’t take care of the ones they have.
They want Taiwan’s factories?
Not going to happen in a war. Things get blown up.
They want attention off their internal problems?
By causing more problems?
Doesn’t make sense.
They fly some jets around and their pilots get some practice hours in.
China likes sure things like bribing Democrat politicians.
War can be a big gamble.
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