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Is A Chinese Military Attack On Taiwan Inevitable?
19FortyFive ^ | 10/6/2021 | James Holmes

Posted on 10/07/2021 8:11:21 AM PDT by Onthebrink

Xi Jinping’s options

Let us go through his options in broad terms. First, Beijing would doubtless prefer to win without fighting, true to Chinese strategic traditions.[6] That is not because party magnates harbour scruples over using violence, or goodwill towards Taiwan. It is because aggressors love peace.[7] A bloodless triumph lets them get their way while sparing them the dangers, hardships, and costs of war.

But it is increasingly doubtful that Taiwan will capitulate without warfare. Polls reveal that an overpowering majority of islanders now define themselves not as Chinese but as Taiwanese.[8] As a corollary, they reject the legitimacy of the mainland’s claim to be their rightful sovereign.

(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: blogpimp; china; crapblog; history; india; military; poswebsite; southchinasea; taiwan; vietnam; war
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1 posted on 10/07/2021 8:11:21 AM PDT by Onthebrink
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To: Onthebrink

With nonexistent leadership atop the one country that could slow them down? Absolutely... if the Chinese aren’t going to take advantage of this golden opportunity now, they never will.


2 posted on 10/07/2021 8:12:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Enough. Divide the country.. now. )
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To: Onthebrink
They will fight just like the Austrians did. Didn't Xi watch "The Sound of Music"?


3 posted on 10/07/2021 8:16:26 AM PDT by Jim Noble (The nation cannot be saved until the GOP is destroyed)
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To: Onthebrink

In a word: YES...........................


4 posted on 10/07/2021 8:16:36 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.....................)
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To: ScottinVA
I believe the only thing making them hesitate now is the amount of business Taiwan subcontracts to the Mainland. Taiwan quality with just over Mainland pricing is attractive to many customers in the business world. All of that would be disrupted and some of it would permanently go away if Taiwan were attacked.

That being said, Germany and the United Kingdom were each other's largest overseas market before World War I broke out.

5 posted on 10/07/2021 8:17:09 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Jim Noble

Before the Anschluss, the Austrian Nazis were so ruthless, even the German Nazis had to tell them to tone it down.


6 posted on 10/07/2021 8:17:39 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Vigilanteman

If we think that there is a chip shortage NOW, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.


7 posted on 10/07/2021 8:19:23 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("There are only men and women."-- George Gilder, Sexual Suicide, 1973)
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To: Onthebrink

Will never attack. Will just announce they are coming in at certain date and that will be that.


8 posted on 10/07/2021 8:20:43 AM PDT by setter
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To: Onthebrink

In the case that China invades amphibiously, the Taiwanese should simply extend pipes out 100-500 yards into the sea and connect them with a petroleum-based solution. When the invasion begins, pump the solution out, let it float, and when the invasion approaches, set it on fire from tip to toe of the western part of the island.

That would confuse the f*** out of the Chinese.


9 posted on 10/07/2021 8:21:13 AM PDT by struggle
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To: Onthebrink

The Chinese have said it is inevitable. They view is as theirs and intend to take it back force…


10 posted on 10/07/2021 8:22:55 AM PDT by Ouderkirk (Life is about ass, you're either covering, hauling, laughing, kicking, kissing, or behaving like one)
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To: Onthebrink

Not according to the stock market.


11 posted on 10/07/2021 8:23:23 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Norman Angell even wrote a book (in 1910), “The Great Illusion”, arguing that the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous.


12 posted on 10/07/2021 8:23:27 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: struggle

You really need to stop gaming


13 posted on 10/07/2021 8:23:33 AM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom Hi Dad)
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To: Onthebrink

I still think “no” but I don’t have a crystal ball.

Chinese communist bureaucrats are extremely factional and risk averse. While they all agree Taiwan belongs to China and have no concern about loss of life, they also know and fear that any miscalculation could mean the end of their careers, their lives or even collapse of communist power.

Threatening Taiwan and keeping up the strident propaganda is costless. The world expects it anyway. Its their own form of “virtue signaling.”

Regardless, Taiwan needs to do MUCH more to defend itself.


14 posted on 10/07/2021 8:26:05 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: al baby

Joe Biden’s not going to have their back, and Japan’s just going to sit there. Might as well fight to win.


15 posted on 10/07/2021 8:26:26 AM PDT by struggle
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To: Dr. Sivana
Chip shortages are just the beginning. Taiwan is a world powerhouse in the manufacture of metal components such as screws, bolts and nuts as well.

Throw in precision scientific instruments, lenses, pharmaceuticals and more and people have no idea how important Taiwan is to the world economy.

16 posted on 10/07/2021 8:27:29 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Onthebrink

Analysis ignores international political considerations. The coming year offers China an unprecedented window of opportunity—with the US leaderless and floundering around, the rest of the West caught up in self-inflicted energy crises and supply chain mismanagement, other allies becoming willing but still unprepared. And with the US hamstrung by its own stupidity, not much chance the others, small powers, will risk national suicide when the US turns out to be a no show.


17 posted on 10/07/2021 8:28:56 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative.)
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To: DuncanWaring
Norman Angell was absolutely correct in his analysis. What he didn't take into account was the emotion driven reaction of world leaders to random events in the summer of 1914 which threw all logic out the window.

Every single country in Europe was set back economically by at least two decades if they were lucky (United Kingdom, Italy) to a century or so if they weren't (Austria-Hungary, France) if they weren't.

18 posted on 10/07/2021 8:34:36 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Onthebrink

19 posted on 10/07/2021 8:36:27 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Onthebrink

They want to invade Taiwan for what purpose?

Because Grandpa’s still mad that Taiwan got away 70 years ago?

Grandpa’s in the grave. He doesn’t care anymore.

China wants more people to take care of?

They can’t take care of the ones they have.

They want Taiwan’s factories?

Not going to happen in a war. Things get blown up.

They want attention off their internal problems?

By causing more problems?

Doesn’t make sense.

They fly some jets around and their pilots get some practice hours in.

China likes sure things like bribing Democrat politicians.

War can be a big gamble.


20 posted on 10/07/2021 8:39:32 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer”)
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