Posted on 08/16/2021 5:58:17 AM PDT by Onthebrink
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang. Chang is also a Contributing Editor to 1945.
The costs in blood of such a move would be high. Richard Fisher of the Northern Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center told 1945 that China could lose about 50,000 troops, sailors, and pilots even if it were able to both achieve complete surprise in mobilizing thousands of barges, ships, and planes and prevent others from coming to Taiwan’s rescue.
“Should China fail to gain complete surprise and the United States and Japan successfully mount a counterattack that included sea-air combat and combat on Taiwan, China could lose 100,000 troops,” Fisher said.
(Excerpt) Read more at 19fortyfive.com ...
Interesting article.
If Xi wants to roll the dice, now is the best time.
He may never get another opportunity like it.
The crooks in DC are in total dis-array—even Stevie Wonder could see it.
Why invade when a blockade would do it without all out war?
Worse than losing 100K troops?
They won’t retake the island.
They’d lose 1 million before they’d let the world see them as losers.
For now, China is using propaganda to weaken the will of the Taiwanese to get them to be willing to unify to avoid war.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/the-photo-op-that-tanked
“The costs in blood of such a move would be high”
A populous country suffering a surplus of young men, and facing limited supply with a need to reduce demand, may find such cost desirable to pay.
They don’t need total surprise.
They wrote the book on creating the chaos and distraction for the time needed to transit the strait.
If I had to make a bold prediction, Taiwan would fold in mere hours. And the Chinese know it.
The bigger question is the response, and if now isn’t the right time, a series of bombs going off in multiple US cities (and a couple in ME ports on USN ships) would provide the needed distraction.
And they have all the agents in place for such an action.
100k....that’s chump change to the chi-coms.
5-10 divisions lost is a drop in the bucket for the Chinese. They lost a million men in Korea before they slowed down. Taiwan is a huge prize and we are too distracted to be effective.
A drop in the bucket. Just watch what happens when China sinks one of our carriers. The US subs will launch non nuclear missiles like Roman candles.
I don’t see XI doing anything to Taiwan before the Beijing Winter Olympics. China loves few things more than a big international show.
But, they will almost certainly make their move while Biden is President. With him, Xi knows he can mute the response.
100,000, nothing compared to losing the three gorges damn...
Yes, and puppet in the white house.
If Xi wants to roll the dice, now is the best time.
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Act 1
Scene 1
If Xi wants to roll the dice, now is the best time.
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Act 1
Scene 2
Biden waves prearranged white flag.
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Pray folks.
China does not have the resources for an invasion. Any ship or helicopter are sitting ducks for missiles.
Once a cross-Straits war breaks out while the mainland seizes the island with forces, the US would have to have a much greater determination than it had for Afghanistan, Syria, and Vietnam if it wants to interfere. A military intervention of the US will be a move to change the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, and this will make Washington pay a huge price rather than earn profit.
Some people on the island of Taiwan hype that the island is different from Afghanistan, and that the US wouldn't leave them alone. Indeed, the island is different from Afghanistan. But the difference is the deeper hopelessness of a US victory if it gets itself involved in a cross-Straits war. Such a war would mean unthinkable costs for the US, in front of which the so-called special importance of Taiwan is nothing but wishful thinking of the DPP authorities and secessionist forces on the island.
The DPP authorities need to keep a sober head, and the secessionist forces should reserve the ability to wake up from their dreams. From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and the US military won't come to help. As a result, the DPP authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane.
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