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Why China Could Invade Taiwan Soon
National Intertest ^ | 3/4/2021 | Gordon Chant

Posted on 03/04/2021 5:54:12 AM PST by Onthebrink

On Tuesday, H.R. McMaster, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, stated that Chinese ruler Xi Jinping “has a fleeting window of opportunity that’s closing, and he wants to, in his view, make China whole again.”

President Trump’s national security advisor in 2017 and 2018 believes China could act “from 2022 onwards,” based on the Beijing Winter Olympics, which end February 20, and the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress, which according to tradition will be held in the fall of next year, most probably sometime in October.

McMaster, presently at the Hoover Institution, is correct. A year from now, therefore, the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be higher than usual.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: china; history; hrmcmaster; military; politics; taiwan
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To: Onthebrink
Taiwan says to the CCP "That's a nice dam you got there, it would be a shame if something were to happen to it"

A catastrophic failure of that dam would kill tens of millions and collapse the Chinese economy.

Should they be stupid enough to try South Korea and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid. Vietnam might too.

China is in no position to invade Taiwan.

21 posted on 03/04/2021 8:08:08 AM PST by jpsb
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To: Red Badger

And a few pallets of cash.


22 posted on 03/04/2021 8:15:52 AM PST by 1956tbyrd
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To: jpsb

Not only does Taiwan need to servive, they also must win the public relations war. Lose that, and it doesn’t matter if they survive. Also, practically everyone on Taiwan has relatives in China. On top of that, no conventional weapon will do much damage to the dam.

Their best approach is to make the war so costly that the CCP government falls.


23 posted on 03/04/2021 8:57:10 AM PST by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud? )
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To: Red Badger

Yep!


24 posted on 03/04/2021 9:32:16 AM PST by Bill of Rights FIRST
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To: Bill of Rights FIRST

If we do not attend the Olympics or cause it to be moved—China will act sooner. It will be a “Trojan Horse” attack, a large force within, and a quick strike from the air. We will be hit with an electronic attack and a pull down of the Grid. Without our computers—the people will want to quit. Why should Americans die for Taiwan? Its part of China after all—Like Hong Kong, Tibet and Japan?


25 posted on 03/04/2021 11:58:56 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade ( ALWAYS GO FORWARD AND NEVER GO BACK.)
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To: ProudDeplorable
If they do invade you can be sure that the U.S. will send a strongly worded letter.

If Joe uses the mail all will be over before it gets there.

26 posted on 03/04/2021 12:00:46 PM PST by SJackson (If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun...folks in Philly like a good brawl, BH Obama)
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To: Onthebrink

Chi-coms move on Taiwan, ya think slow Joe will do any damned thing.


27 posted on 03/04/2021 12:25:48 PM PST by Joe Boucher (Molon Labe')
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

That’s right, we sure shouldn’t have our troops there. We need our men here in the USA.


28 posted on 03/04/2021 12:35:40 PM PST by Bill of Rights FIRST
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

There is no telling what EVIL has planned.


29 posted on 03/04/2021 12:36:54 PM PST by Bill of Rights FIRST
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Maybe Hunter can put in a good word for Taiwan and just prevent the whole thing.

30 posted on 03/05/2021 7:03:01 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: Onthebrink; AmericanInTokyo; gandalftb

Pacific commander warns China could move to take Taiwan in the next five years if US doesn’t increase deterrence.

“China has modernized its military more than any other nation on the planet through the course of this century,” said Adm. Philip Davidson, in remarks at a virtual forum sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute. “The military balance in the Indo-Pacific is becoming more unfavorable for the United States and our allies. And with this imbalance, we are accumulating risk that may embolden China to act unilaterally ... before our forces might be able to deliver an effective response.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pacific-commander-warns-china-could-move-to-take-taiwan-in-the-next-five-years-if-us-doesnt-increase-deterrence

While China is expected to field 400 ships by 2025, the goal of the current US Navy shipbuilding plan, a goal with no fixed date, is for a fleet of 355 — a substantial numerical disadvantage.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html


31 posted on 03/06/2021 1:52:26 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith

China is dependent on import of semiconductors for its economy (some US$350 billion in 2020). They are trying to build a domestic industry. More here:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3789661/posts


32 posted on 03/06/2021 3:02:35 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: jpsb

The PLAAF and the PLAN would start with a tight blockade of Taiwan. They could easily do this now if they wanted.


33 posted on 03/06/2021 3:23:38 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: jpsb

Good to see you posting. Plz update your About page.

I don’t agree the three gorges dam is an impediment to China waging war for three reasons.

1) It assumes China is concerned about its civilian population. China would love to have a massive loss of life blamed on a foreign entity rather than CCP mismanagement.

2) It presumes that knowing 1, their adversaries will target a civilian dam to inflict 10s of millions of civilian casualties. They will not.

3) Such a war crime and violation of the Rules of War and numerous other treaties would cede enormous moral authority to the CCP for military expansionism.


34 posted on 03/06/2021 3:55:38 AM PST by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
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To: DesertRhino

No kidding. Who in the hell in his right mind would hire such a person?


35 posted on 03/06/2021 6:11:56 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (House lost. Check. Senate lost. Check. White House lost. Check. Twice Impeached. Check. WINNING!)
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To: AdmSmith

Well, once Taiwan declared independence, it’s over. And we know China’s big plan (they think in 100 year increments) is to reunify Taiwan to the Red Mainland, peacefully or by force, by 2049. Anniversaries are a big thing for them. Xi has been talking this incessantly.


36 posted on 03/06/2021 6:17:12 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (House lost. Check. Senate lost. Check. White House lost. Check. Twice Impeached. Check. WINNING!)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

China’s top general has called for increased military spending to prepare for a war with the United States. General Xu Qilian, who is second in command of the country’s armed forces after President Xi, said China needs to ready itself for the ‘Thucydides Trap’.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9338759/Chinas-general-calls-increased-military-spending-Thucydides-trap-war-US.html


37 posted on 03/08/2021 10:39:47 PM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith

One hundred miles off the coast of China is the largest and most sophisticated microchip maker in the world – Taiwan. These chips power the world’s cars, phones, and computers. China consumes more than half of them and wants more as its economy grows and is increasingly casting an eye to their island neighbor to the east to get them – some worry by military force one day.

“Whoever controls the design and production of these microchips, they’ll set the course for the 21st century,” said Martijn Rasser, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security.

“By gaining control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, China would control the global market,” Rasser said. “They would have access to the most advanced manufacturing capabilities and that is even more valuable than controlling the world’s oil.”

Former President Trump’s deputy secretary of state has some advice for the new Biden administration. “We need to make it much more clear to the Chinese, that they will be defeated if they seek to change the status of the Taiwan Straits,” Stephen Biegun told the Aspen Security Forum, moderated by Fox News national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin, Friday.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/global-microchip-shortage-has-china-eyeing-taiwan


38 posted on 05/02/2021 6:32:02 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co) gears up for mass production of 3-nanometre chips for high-end computers and 5G phones. iPhone maker Apple, 5G chip developer Qualcomm and graphics processing unit giant Nvidia will be among the first clients to use TSMC’s latest technology

https://www.scmp.com/tech/innovation/article/3118183/tsmc-gears-mass-production-3-nanometre-chips-high-end-computers-and


39 posted on 05/02/2021 6:46:41 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith

TSMC accounted for 54% of total foundry revenue globally last year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html


40 posted on 05/02/2021 6:48:32 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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