Posted on 10/11/2020 11:58:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.
Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.
Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.
But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.
So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.
Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.
Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins to big to over come. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).
One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.
So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).
To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.
But here's a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.
Enthusiasm Gap
The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”
Black Votes Matter
Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.
Latino Support Sans Pandering
Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.
Promises Kept
I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.
It’s still the economy, stupid.
As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.
Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.
But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.
The American people are the only poll that matters.
On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.
Obama could play the race card and sufficient number of voters would fall in line. The GOP also helped by running awful candidates. Biden had no race card & he’s up against an incumbent candidate with a proven record. Still 47% of the voters, etc. etc.
Boy it’s hard to change a multi generation ingrained way of thinking. But it can be done.
We got 11 percent of the black vote last time, i think. That’s up from the usual 5. We got 34 percent of Hispanics and that’s been as low as 28 percent in other elections.
We don’t need majorities from them.
a 40/60 split for hispanics and a 25/75 split for blacks would help us Tremendously!!
And then we can build from there.
Thing is, Trump isn’t looked upon so much as an R but more of a nationalist.
I hope we don’t get another stick in the mud R to represent us in 2024.
But first things first :)
It’s so simple. Trump has gained support across the board. This is no contest.
spontaneous enthusiasm/parades/events for Trump, are everywhere and incredible
Even fifth avenue
even Beverly Hills
I think the visuals of that gives strong comfort to shy Trump voters. A vote for him is not a weird, skulky, fringe right thing. It’s just a vote for America and against those who want to destroy us.
I’m feeling better and better ....on most days :)
Yeah he’s trying to tell them “is this all you want from life?” in a positive way.
I know it’s dangerous to say “expect more from a man who is the father of your child”
But that’s a political lightning rod.
Though I would love to hear it.
I know a lot of women from the projects and they have told me a woman’s job is to have kids...marriage or even relationship doesn’t matter...kids give their meaningless life meaning..
Tragically sad all around.
I almost did not read it bc who needs bad news?
I usually read the whole article, after a defeatist Title. Glad I did. Crush it, Mr. President!
We lost in 2018 because of LYIN RYAN and Trump haters jumping ship THEN to top it all off vote harvesting AND counting votes 2 weeks past the Election Day, in CA. we retained all of our seats THEN as the counting went on for 2 weeks with harvested ballots we lost EVERY DAMN SEAT!! Katie Hill the NEW Dem from Simi Valley district had the huge scandal special election NO HARVESTING due to CV19 WE WON the seat back, it is a very conservative district and that and ALL seats were stolen!! I am very worried with this mail in vote BS my mom received a ballot for my dad who has been dead 20 years, my moms neighbor purchased the house 2 years ago and they received 2 ballots for the previous owner, ballots will be EVERYWHERE so the fraud will be high!! These BASTARDS can’t win anything without cheating we need attorneys EVERYWHERE!!
“Therefore, I believe there is an enormous amount of voter enthusiasm for Trump in this cycle that was not present in 2016 which will translate to much larger winning margins in the polls than four years ago.”
However, I believe many Dems didn’t show up in 2016 because they were certain that Hillary had it in the bag. This time many of those are less certain and are now motivated by hate.
So this may balance out and result in similar narrow margins in the States as in 2016.
Fraud may be key, or there will be enough (so many) narrow State wins that the fraud won’t matter.
Story does not match headline.
lol.
True, but it is such a misleading headline. Many of us are nervous enough without this guy scaring us even more.
Trump to Black community: “Vote for me. What have you got to lose?”
“Uncle Tom Cabin” dvd (Larry Elder)showed a lot of blacks who did not vote for him in last election and saw what he has accomplished and will walk on that glass to vote for him now.
A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.
Let's call it what it is, shall we? I have regularly demonstrated I am more than twice as likely to LIE to pollsters - it's more fun that way. The Young Turks 2016 Election Meltdown is still one of my top 5 favorite YouTube videos.
Its actually a great title—i can send that link to 25 liberals on facebook, and they’ll be sharing it left and right without a clue what the article says.
There is not a doubt in my mind that Trump will win OMG Trump had more people in front of that hospital 24/7 than Bernie, Jill, and Joe had ALL WEEKEND all events combined!! I was embarrassed for Bernie I think he had maybe 20 people at a HUGE outdoor space!!
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Vote IN PERSON...let’s make it a true Trumpslide
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