Posted on 10/04/2020 6:05:36 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There’s a new poll out that is post-debate and post-news of President Donald Trump getting the Wuhan coronavirus. As such, it provides an interesting window into what voters may be thinking about those two events.
The Zogby poll shows that the President has continued to narrow the polling numbers gap with Joe Biden.
Their July 8th poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 42%, their August 29th poll had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).
But now, their poll has Biden only leading by two points, 49% to 47%, with 4% not sure. That’s basically a statistical dead-heat. If you factor in the “shy Trump” vote, it might even put Trump on the winning side of the poll.
The former VP is leading among Democrats 91%-8%, voters 18-29 years of age (60%-35%) and those 30-49 (50%-45%), as well as among women (56%-41%), Progressives (85%-15%), Liberals (85%-14%) and Moderates (58%-36%). He also leads among Hispanics is 61%-34% and Blacks (87%-11%).
The President, who was hospitalized before the poll was launched, leads among fellow Republicans (94%-6%), voters 50-64 (53%-45%) and those over 65 (50%-47%). As of now, Mr. Trump is capturing a slight majority of Catholic voters (51%-46%), Evangelicals (68%-32%), Conservatives (78%-18%), and Very Conservative voters (92%-8%). He also is ahead among Whites (56%-40%) and parents of children under 17 living at home (54%-40%).
Now, the numbers tally with what we previously reported — that Trump has made inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote, with numbers higher than what he got in 2016. Other polls have Trump making even greater inroads with Black voters as we’ve also previously reported.
Pollster John Zogby had predicted Biden would win his lead after the announcement about Trump coming down with the virus, but that didn’t happen.
“Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization,” Zogby said. “His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.”
Zogby noted trouble points for Biden.
First, his numbers among Hispanics and Black voters were lower than they needed to be to ward off Trump.
From Zogby:
His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Second, Biden had also lost ground among independents with their last poll showed Biden leading strongly among independents but now the two candidates were tied with 12% still undecided.
Zogby also echoed the likelihood that Trump could win the “count on Election Day” but that Biden might have a lot of mail-ins come after Election Day.
What I like is that the trend is in favor of President Trump.
They’ll just come out with another poll showing Biden by 20.
Shows him getting 11 percent from blacks.
Let’s say that’s 15 to 18 percent (anything above that is absurd)
That’s GREAT. Even at 17 percent That’s 10 percent better than usual.
that’s almost 5 million more votes than usual.
That’s big in PA, MI and some other close states.
Very good news.
It says hispanics..35 percent. I believe 40 percent.
That would be GREAT.
come on guys we were never gonna get the majority of hispanics and more than 18 percent of blacks..but we didn’t need to.
these are HUGE numbers for us..compared to the past
Nice procession of pro-Trump vehicles along the Belmar, NJ boardwalk today. I observed 2 couples booing and about 20 people clapping. But it’s a Republican area.
Last I checked, polls don’t elect anybody to anything. Ballots do.
I believe that Trump is going to win, for the following reasons:
1. Pretty much no one who voted for him in 2016 is not going to do so again - except those who died (they’ll be voting Dem, of course) and perhaps 1% of the rest.
2. He’s made inroads into both the black and hispanic voter bases.
3. His debate performance was - as Dan Bongino pointed out - all about 2 things: first, rallying his base and, second, tearing Leftists away from Biden. He did both well (certainly not perfectly) by doubling down on his policies of the past 4 years and by riling up Biden and getting him to say that the Green New Deal wasn’t his policy, that he wasn’t a Socialist and that the Left didn’t control him. This sews doubts, and will result in some of them not showing up to vote or being as willing to work for or contribute to his campaign. Even if 1% of the Leftists don’t turn out for him because of that, he will have succeeded in his goal for the first debate. As for the base, not a single person that I’ve spoken with since the debate who was for Trump has changed their mind, or is not going to show up to vote for him. Some were annoyed by his interruptions of Biden, but that changed nothing. He energized the base.
About 18 million blacks will vote. If Trump goes from 8% to 18% that’s 1.8 million additional votes.
11% of the black vote is about what I expected. Trump has a decent chance of getting 35%-38% of the Hispanic vote. Just enough to tip several states I suspect.
Our small town had a Trump rally at the main 4 corners. Across the street was a 1/3 size Hate Trump Rally. But nooooobody was supporting Biden, the quicker sniffer picker-upper.
4. He conquered the China Virus and returns to the White House on Monday.
These people voting for Joe Biden . . . have they lost their everlovin’ minds? Think about it!
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