Posted on 10/04/2020 9:48:25 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with covid – EXCLUSIVE DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not [NEGATIVELY] impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.
The news in survey ranges from positive to extremely positive. There is no bad news. Note Trump leading nationally by just one point means little because we don’t elect president on national popular votes. There are several strong knockout punches against Biden: The enthusiasm gap is at 34 which is huge; African Americans are voting Trump at 18% from a small pool, Hispanics back Trump with 40% of their vote as do Evangelicals (91%) and Catholics 66% - a number no Republican has ever come close to.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
Oct 4, 2020 | UPDATED: 07:20, Sun, Oct 4, 2020
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.
But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”. Net + 6
Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.
62% felt sympathy and concern for Mr. Trump
N.B. Remember these numbers a month from now.
(Excerpt) Read more at express.co.uk ...
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden. The Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.
The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory.
This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.
Other controversies appear to have had little impact on the election with around 8 in 10 voters saying that the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has changed their position, although Trump got more favourable support 12 percent, than unfavourable 9 percent. Barrett is a net + 3
After a first bad tempered debate in the election, 32 percent said Trump won and 18 percent Biden but half thought it was a draw and more than 7 in 10 said it made no difference to how they would vote.
Who won debate? Trump by 32/18
Law and order remains the top issue in the election after riots linked to the black lives matter protests with 32 percent identifying it as their number one concern. However, the economy is closing the gap with 30 percent putting it top as the effects of coronavirus continue to bite.
Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.
Meanwhile, the poll reveals Mr Biden has a “reality problem” with twice as many people giving credit to reality TV star Kim Kardasian for prison reform than the former Vice President.
Asked who has had a more positive impact on criminal justice 41 percent say Trump, the same number say Kim Kardasian and just 18 percent say Biden. Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said: “When a reality TV star beats you in a poll on an important policy question, you know your campaign has a problem.”
“We find twice as many voters give Kim Kardashian credit for advancing the cause of criminal justice reform – an especially important issue among Black voters – than rate Biden’s contribution.
“Trump and Biden’s respective standings on this specific issue epitomise Biden’s overarching Achilles’ Heel in this election: comparatively low support and enthusiasm for his candidacy among Black voters.
To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best.”
Poll results National Popular Vote • Trump (Republican) = 46% • Biden (Democrat) = 45% • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 3% • Hawkins (Green) = 1% • Undecided = 5% • White voters: Trump = 52% Biden = 45% • Black: Trump 18% Biden = 78% • Hispanic: Trump 40% Biden = 50% These last two are serious problems for Biden. Battleground States – Popular Vote Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin • Trump (Republican) = 47% • Biden (Democrat) = 43% • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 4% • Hawkins (Green) = 1% • Undecided = 5% Florida – Popular Vote • Trump (Republican) = 48% • Biden (Democrat) = 44% • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2% • Hawkins (Green) = 1% • Undecided = 5% Minnesota – Popular Vote • Trump (Republican) = 46% • Biden (Democrat) = 44% • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2% • Hawkins (Green) = 2% • Undecided = 6% New Hampshire – Popular Vote • Trump (Republican) = 45% • Biden (Democrat) = 43% • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 5% • Hawkins (Green) = 2% • Undecided = 5% Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results) 270 needed to win • Trump = 320 [picks-up Minnesota, New Hampshire & a single Maine electoral vote] • Biden = 218 Enthusiasm Gap? Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?” • Trump voters = 83% • Biden voters = 49% Wow – 34 points, the value of such an edge cannot be overstated. If it was even just half it would be very significant.
Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?” • Trump voters: positive vote = 86%; negative vote = 14% • Biden voters: positive vote = 41%; negative vote = 59% Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?” • Trump voters: Yes = 2% • Biden voters: Yes = 7% If this is a trade- off of “won’t say” voters it is very bad news for Biden ‘Shy’ Trump Vote? Question to Undecided Voters Q “Does a relative, friend, or coworker plan to vote for Trump?” • Yes = 77% • No = 23% Q “Will President Trump be reelected?” • Yes = 61% • No = 39% Gallup found this by a 56/40 margin and this predictor has never been wrong as to the popular vote.
Q “Which candidate will win the second presidential debate?” • Trump = 57% • Biden = 43%
Questions to All Voters Q “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?” • Trump voters: Yes = 22% • Biden voters: Yes = 87% Debate Q “Which candidate won Wednesday evening’s presidential debate?” • Trump = 32% • Biden = 18% • Draw = 50% Q “Did Wednesday evening’s presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Trump/Biden?” • Trump = 20% • Biden = 8% • No difference = 72% Net + 12! Trump’s National Job Approval • Approve = 50% • Disapprove = 48% Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval • Republican = 89% • Democrat = 24% • Independent = 49%
Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval • White = 56% • Black = 40% • Hispanic = 47% Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval • Men = 53% • Women = 47% Down just 6 with women is very good Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval • Evangelical = 91% • Protestant = 60% • Catholic = 66% • Jewish = 31% • Atheist = 8% The Evangelicals at 91% and Catholics at 66% are knockout numbers,
Age – Trump’s National Job Approval • 65 years & over = 58% • 45-64 years = 65% • 30-44 years = 44% • 18-29 years = 36% Young voters are notorious for not showing up on Election Day so this is bad news for Biden. This survey directly refutes the false survey reports saying Trump is losing the upper age groups. Remember DI correctly predicted the 2016 winner with the same methodology. Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval • Married 62% • Single 30% Singles vote at lower rate than married voters. Supreme Court Nomination Q “Does President Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacant seat on the Supreme Court make you more or less likely to vote for him?” • More likely = 12% • Less likely = 9% • No difference = 79% • Barrett net + 3 Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Questions to 500 likely voters surveyed on October 2nd 2020. Q “When you learned earlier today of Donald Trump’s positive COVID-19 test, which of the following best describes your reaction to this news?” • Sympathy/concern = 62% • Karma! = 38% This is a net plus 24 points and it explains why media outlets are always so wrong when they assume that since they hate Trump, we hate him. Q “Does Donald Trump’s positive COVID-19 test make you more or less likely to vote for him?” • More likely = 19% • Less likely = 13% • No difference = 68% This is a net plus 6 on a top issue less than a month out – significant.
Policy
With 62% citing Law & Order and Economy, Trump is leading on both issues. · Education = 15% · Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 15% · Immigration = 8% This clearly says the issue of immigration is settled and with his wall Trump won it.
Q “Which issue is most important to you?” · Law & order/riots/violence = 32% · Economy/jobs = 30% Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?” • Too tough 25% • Just right 33% • Not tough enough 42% Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?” • Approve = 63% • Disapprove = 37% Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?” • Yes = 32% • No = 68% Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?” • Law & order = 73% • Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 27% Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?” • Yes = 16% • No = 75% Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.
Economy Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?” • Yes = 70% • No = 30% Q “Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?” • Trump = 60% • Biden = 40% Pandemic Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?” • Approve = 45% • Disapprove = 49% Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?” • Trump = 69% • Biden = 31% Education Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?” • Yes = 69% • No = 31% Race Black Lives Matter Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?” • Black Lives Matter = 26% • All Lives Matter = 74% Maryland’s 7th Congressional District Q “Trump’s Job Approval/Disapproval?” • Approve = 38% • Disapprove = 62% Q “Voting Intention?” • Kweisi Mfume (Democrat) = 46% • Kim Klacik (Republican) = 34% • Other = 6% • Undecided = 14% There is every reason to recognize the 14% “Undecided” as African Americans who don’t want anyone to know they support Klacik. Moreover, given these numbers, I find it hard to believe Trump is “only doing 18% with African Americans.
Policing / Law & Order Q “Do the violent protests across the country make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?” • More likely = 28% • Less likely = 10% • Makes no difference = 62% Net + 14 Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?” • Too tough 25% • Just right 33% • Not tough enough 42% Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?” • Approve = 63% • Disapprove = 37% Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?” • Yes = 32% • No = 68% Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?” • Law & order = 73% • Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 27% Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?” • Yes = 16% • No = 75% Biden’s Mental Acuity Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?” • Yes = 49% • No = 48% • Don’t know = 3% Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?” • More likely = 15% • Less likely = 40% • No difference = 45% Net -25 for Biden ouch! Leadership Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?” • Trump = 73% • Biden = 23% Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?” • Trump = 20% • Biden = 58% Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?” • Yes = 79% • No = 21% Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?” • Yes = 65% • No = 35% Personal Traits Q “Is Trump/Biden too old to be president?” • Trump = 33% • Biden = 65% Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?” • Trump = 30% • Biden = 54%
Then there’s another article today from the WSJ saying Biden now has a 14 point lead over Trump. Who’s right?
O.J. was set up. That’s who.
It was hard to space this but if you want an easier read down load it.
The media will be telling progressively bigger lies as we get closer. DON’T read this crap don’t post this garbage and don’t be fooled. We are winning big.
Don’t even bother with Newsmax articles because they have become nothing more than click bait. They had Trump near death even while his doctors were reporting his remarkable recovery.
FOX is not your friend either. The only honest news is from One America News.
“African Americans are voting Trump at 18% from a small pool...”
I say that if you are going to vote from a pool, make sure it’s Olympic size or one of those resort pools with a waterfall.
that’s what I’m confused about.
Even COVID picks Trump over Biden.
So about the only positives for Biden in this poll are that he is seen as a “consensus builder” and he is seen as “likeable.” Of course we know Biden will let his handlers force through the leftist agenda and Biden is far from being a nice guy.
Poll trends are what we should pay attention to. We should also understand they are lagging indicators and any one event can change a trend.
President Trump had a good trend going into the announcement of ACB but stalled after. President Trump must have known this was going to happen since he had other choices that would have given him a bump in his polling and chose to stick with who he felt was best for the position.
The second debate drove up his negatives a bit which is not good but it did not move the polling.
His hospital visit will give him a bump in the polls which is why the left is hitting him so hard on the mask.
Biden has been spending like crazy recently to gain support and does have a large support base. If I were to guess things are presently tied in national polling at this point with likely voters and the Dem cheating.
But President Trumps team has the ability to move these polls. Such as putting forward a vaccine. Or a couple of indictments would go a long way. Why he does not get this done is a mystery to me. And if President Trump lets them rig the debate as they did with the first it will only be a negative outcome for him.
I have almost never seen the Sunday Express on this board.
Is it reliable? Is it skewed towards one party or another?
Instead of hoping the ones showing Trump leading are right and the ones showing him losing are wrong, how about we, for the most part, forget about polls and get EVERYONE we know to vote.
Elders who need a ride. The disable who need rides and can vote in person.
We need to cast as few mail ins as possible.
I have to call to see where I volunteer for people who need rides on Staten Island.
No, Trump will not win NY but our district can DEFINITELY be taken back from the horrible max rose and every vote counts towards the (meaningless but important to msm) popular vote.
WSJ/NBC . . . NBC, the parent of MSNBC. Is the worst of the worst.
Its an NBC Poll, Hillary Clinton was up 11 the week of the election and we all know how that turned out
CatOwner and his group of eeyore’s are sad.
How come only Republicans have been hit with Covid? Am I missing something here?
This has to be the first time in history that a virus had a political bias.
Biden is a quartermaster guy, ya know... the thing... on the second floor ..ah, in the ladies department or what ever... ya know...’’
with one hand tied behind his back
https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1312869804865466369
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