So we should be much encouraged by the extensive ground game president Trump has put into place compared to 2016. It looks like the Democrats are trying to run a virtual campaign with virtually no ground game, a recipe for no turnout.
Posted on 09/27/2020 6:54:09 AM PDT by byecomey
For the extreme numbers nerds! Click through to the interactive predictor. (Probably not mobile friendly though)
The election predictor was made using available CNN exit poll data. Adjusting the values therein will "trickle" down to individual states proportionally by that state's exit poll data. For example, if you predict that men will vote Trump by 5% more, the ratio will adjust proportionally according to how that particular state voted for Trump.
The high third party prevalence made it tricky, so I provided three options to split third-party (3P) data. I don't recommend mixing crosstabs too much - the poll data wasn't super granular in the first place, so errors will accumulate the more you mix crosstabs.
Nerd ping. Next up, I’m going to write a calculator that allows you to enter a poll’s crosstabs and breaks the turnout assumptions down.
Can you add one for religion?
Yep, no problem! I’ll do it shortly.
Turnout is key!
Also $. Send what you can. Here is one of many sites that will give you good candidates to support. https://www.housefreedomfund.com/
Or just give here ‘cause it’s the funniest ad EVER. https://twitter.com/i/status/1309230616404275201
R for Trump up 5%, D for Clinton down 5% and R turnout up 5% = a red sea.
So we should be much encouraged by the extensive ground game president Trump has put into place compared to 2016. It looks like the Democrats are trying to run a virtual campaign with virtually no ground game, a recipe for no turnout.
You did this? Good job.
So, I lied. I can’t easily include religion after all because the exit polling is inconsistent on asking about religion. Only a handful of states got asked about religious affiliation.
But I do have plans to do a state-specific calculator which should allow for state-by-state variance.
Yes and thank you! More tools on the way.
That’s because a large number of states were unusually close. It can go the other way.
“It looks like the Democrats are trying to run a virtual campaign with virtually no ground game, a recipe for no turnout.”
I was part of a congressional campaign against uber Liberal Dina Titus in Nevada a few years back. Because of a lack of funds we ran an aggressive virtual campaign. Failed colossally.
I like tool though. Fun to play around with what ifs.
Very nice program. How hard to split screen so you can see the changes to the map as you make changes below?
Yeah, I saw that was an annoyance as well. I’ll see what I can do this afternoon. Web programming isn’t my cup of tea - this was built by hacking at an open source US map app.
Nice
This is nice work.
Turnout has a different meaning in a year with mail in votes, but I have suspected for some time that the Dems are presuming they have untapped numbers they can tap through the mail and they simply do not.
People who care, vote. People who don’t care, don’t vote. The threshold of effort getting to the polls is not a big determinant. Lots of registered voters don’t vote because they don’t want to. It’s not because they want to and it’s too much work.
BTW bumping the black vote (black men) just 8% moves states.
While I agree with you in principle, don’t forget about the criminal element of the DNC.
People who don’t care don’t vote, but the DNC is prepared to vote FOR them. And late entries, ballot harvesting and court challenges are their chief weaponry.
Then there’s trays of mail from Republican areas found in ditches, counters who decide to count a certain way BEFORE hand and plain old bribery.
From XiNN
Using exit polls.....in recent years they have been notoriously bad
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