Skip to comments.Sweden’s No-Lockdown COVID-19 Numbers are Even Better Than They Look
Posted on 08/01/2020 7:38:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In case you hadnt heard, Sweden is one of the very few western nations that didnt respond to COVID-19 by imposing any lockdowns.
Given the obvious hardship, misery, and death lockdowns bring, Swedens leaders decided it made more sense to just isolate the sick and elderly. They let the infection burn through the strong and healthy members of their population at its normal rate instead of trying to slow it down and thereby delaying herd immunity.
Way back in May, I pointed out that, if lockdowns were effective, Swedens neighbors would see a dramatic increase in cases after opening back up.
Lockdowns, at best, only slow down the rate of infection. They dont reduce the number required to reach herd immunity and, hence, only serve to increase the amount of time the virus lingers.
The point of locking down is to make sure hospitals dont get overrun by a surge of new cases on any given day, not to decrease the number of people ultimately infected.
(Since neither Sweden nor U.S hospitals were ever in danger of being overrun, we know lockdowns accomplished nothing without even looking at the numbers. But the amount of misinformation about Sweden being bandied about makes it worth doing anyway.)
In fact, if a nation that went into lockdown doesnt experience a dramatic increase in cases after opening back up, that means shutting down failed to do what it was supposed to and the virus continued to spread at its normal rate.
The upshot is that it made no sense to compare Swedens numbers to their neighbors until the virus ran its course.
As my colleague Brandon Morse reported Friday, it looks like bothering to read what the experts proposing lockdowns actually said they were supposed to accomplish may have paid off.
Swedens Herd Immunity Pays Off, Sees Sharp Decline In COVID Cases While the Rest of Us Cower
Europe is seeing another surge in Coronavirus cases with the exception of Sweden who is still seeing a marked decline since June.
But a Twitter researcher who goes by the name El Gato Malo (The Bad Cat) did a thread thats essential reading for anyone who wants to understand whether Sweden made the right choice.
It turns out their COVID numbers are incredibly good even independently of the fact that they seem to be avoiding the recent spike in cases that lockdown nations are experiencing.
Moreover, there are differences in the criteria for counting COVID-19 deaths which cast a very different light on some of the comparisons being made.
To start by considering Swedens numbers in isolation, their COVID fatalities were almost entirely restricted to the elderly. 88% were over 70 and 75% were in nursing homes or elder care. Only 4.5% of fatalities were under 60.
Sweden had almost no deaths among the young
88% were over 70 years old and 75% in nursing homes or elder care.
even if lockdown had been 100% effective in stopping every death under 60, that would have been 4.5% of deaths.
so give it a rest guys. pic.twitter.com/zFIHqi3nPl
el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 21, 2020
Sweden had less than 500 reported COVID fatalities under 70, just 12% of the total.
Before the even one death is too many crowd starts accusing me of being a heartless monster, they might want to take a look in the mirror.
A recent report from the British government estimates that in just a single year lockdowns may cause 200,000 deaths from depriving people of medical care for ailments other than COVID-19 alone.
Britain has around 6 times Swedens population. But even dividing the British number by 20 gives you 10,000 deaths.
Thats 20 times those 500 people under the age of 70 that Sweden reported as succumbing to COVID-19 and almost twice their total for all ages.
Study by British gov. says lockdown may kill 200,000 brits.
Turns out other things kill people besides C-19. Crazy, huh?https://t.co/OiTFP03ibp pic.twitter.com/NmxFD4dXm1
Michael Thau (@MichaelThau) August 1, 2020
Moreover, its very unlikely that the real death toll in Sweden is anywhere close to the number theyre reporting. Like the U.S., Swedens criteria for counting COVID-19 deaths are so loose that theyre bound to be including a lot of people who wouldve died regardless of the virus.
Sweden systematically checks the list of people who have tested positive for the virus against the population register. Every time the government discovers that someone who had the virus has died, that person is registered as a COVID-19 death if it happened within 30 days of the diagnosis.
In Sweden, It doesnt matter what they died of could be a heart attack, cancer or even a car accident.
Sweden just counts cov deaths extremely inclusively.
this had led to very high numbers reported especially as covid is an opportunistic infection that moves in when youre already sick. pic.twitter.com/5opRudlNIX
el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 21, 2020
People keep contrasting Swedens COVID fatality numbers with Norways.
Given that Swedens reported deaths from the virus likely dwarf the number of citizens they would have killed with a lockdown, such comparisons are just scary-sounding panic-porn that have no bearing on the wisdom of Swedens decision.
But as Norberg also pointed out to the apparently deaf ears of all those pushing the Norway comparison anyway:
Even in a culturally and geographically similar country like Norwaycelebrated for its low death ratethey do things differently. The Norwegians only count something as a COVID-19 death if a doctor concludes that someone was killed by the disease and decides to report it to the countrys public health authority.
Theres a general lesson here. The data were getting is pretty much all garbage considered on its own and is worse than garbage when used for comparative purposes. The only thing that matters in evaluating whether lockdowns are worth their tremendous death toll is how many people would still be alive if not for contracting COVID-19.
And absolutely no one seems to have any interest in even figuring that out, let alone in telling us.
But, speaking of Norway, instead of comparing stats compiled using completely different criteria, maybe we should listen to what the Norwegians are saying. The head of their version of Americas CDC has made a startling admission:
Our assessment now .is that we could possibly have achieved the same effects and avoided some of the unfortunate impacts by not locking down, but by instead keeping open but with infection control measures,
norway's director of the institute of public health (similar to US CDC) is now saying that lockdowns were unnecessary.
this is an amazingly honest about-face and warrants much respect.
will other health agencies be so honorable w/ their self-assessment?https://t.co/PTEWwUK5Mb
el gato malo (@boriquagato) May 26, 2020
Hearing a director of some government agency defend one of their policies doesnt mean a whole lot. Neither bureaucrats nor anyone else for that matter are likely to admit theyve made a terrible mistake. But when thats exactly what theyre doing, people ought to listen. And Camille Stoltenberg deserves to be commended in the highest possible terms for doing so.
Finally, its kind of hard to argue that COVID-19 has been some kind of a disaster for the Swedes given that theyve actually had fewer overall fatalities than normal.
but overall all cause deaths this flu season are LOW in sweden, not high.
a plague and policy response so bad that were 3.6% below normal per capita deaths is not much of a scare story, is it?https://t.co/ZjlgX3sDLV
el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 21, 2020
So all those Covidian Cult members celebrating the deadly plague their god brought down on Sweden for not heeding cult rituals by killing thousands of Swedes with a sacrificial lockdown couldnt be more off base.
Might be time to start looking for a new religion.
Or better yet, they could start following the science.
that sounds like magical thinking.
their systems was never even stressed, much less overwhelmed.
yet those of lockdown countries were.
it has nothing to do with policy.
everyone got the same R curve no matter what they did.
flatten the curve does not work. pic.twitter.com/FbX9bxK9Qp
el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 22, 2020
Last week we went camping with them and nobody ever wore a mask or was worried about distancing or any of that other crapola.
Spoiler alert. We're still alive!
More people have died from Suicide and Overdose as a result of the lockdown than the total of chicom flu deaths in the USA
This is what I have been trying to get across all along.
In the end, you will see that may it be Germany, Sweden, the US, UK or Canada, a similar percentage of the population will eventually be exposed.
Herd immunity is a reality even without a vaccine and it is what will eventually stop the spread. All we accomplished is slowing things down, then just to see them pick back up when we lifted the lock down, and now with all these ridiculous measures we are slowing it down a bit, but in the end, the numbers will be near identical. Only we destroyed 1/3 of our economy and have to deal with the aftermath of all sorts of other issues.
We should have sheltered those at risk. For the rest of us it should have been business as usual. Once the disease passes those at risk can come out. Instead we had in some cases policies that actually exposed those at risk, example Quomo requiring covid positive folks to be returned to senior living facilities. Our actions delayed the inevitable and those at risk are MORE likely to be exposed since over a longer time there are more opportunities for exposure.
When it’s all over, we will have WORSE fatality rates than places like Sweden, as in deaths per 100,000. The total number exposed will be about the same. But we will have self destructed economically and lived liked worms for 6 months.
Yippie, great doing NIH, FDA and CDC!
And the Mrs and I went to the beach in Destin two weeks ago.
It was awesome!
Spoiler alert. We’re also alive.
Some foods in Sweden are fortified with vitamin D. As far as I can tell, the UK doesn’t have vitamin D fortification. Vitamin D levels make a difference with COVID 19.
Cod Liver Oil has plenty. I use a swig to swallow my Zinc pill.
I hope a Light Bulb
is going on in
A Lot of Heads!
Sweden was predicted by the “flatten the curve” charts that were touted back in March. The “don’t-do” curve rises much higher, but then drops to nearly zero much faster than the flattened curve. The goal back then, of keeping emergency rooms from being overwhelmed, made some sense. What’s going on now is nonsense.
Look at the average fat body couch ape in theUS. Then look at the physical condition of Sweden.
All of those around here preaching about how Sweden did it forget that MOST of America is fat and sickly.
Sweden 569 deaths per million
USA 477 deaths per million
We are in a cluster of the worst countries along with some major Western European countries and Latin America. I think a lot of it was going to happen no matter what we did, and we shut down and destroyed millions of people’s futures for nothing.
I think you're exactly right.
RE: Sweden 569 deaths per million
This article questions the way their CoVid-19 deaths are counted.
Thats been an ongoing question. The lockdown cheerleaders like to point to Germany as doing it right.
Just wait two weeks.
Isn't that the mantra we've been hearing since early March?
Thinking more about this, I wonder if having vitamin D fortified foods is as effective as the lock downs for C19.
Reportedly 3 out of 4 people have vitamin D deficiency.
We’ve already been back for one week so we only have one week to go.
50% of America is no longer interested in hearing the truth and they will eat up whatever propaganda mainstream media serves them.
We will probably reach herd immunity in a couple of months. I can’t say when for sure but it’s probable we will get there before the vaccine gets out.
The Norway person made that statement on may 22, 2 months ago.
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