Skip to comments.
THE STATE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AS AT JULY 2020
Powerline Blog ^
| 06/30/2020
| Steven Hayward
Posted on 06/30/2020 7:26:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
At the present time the polls look bad for President Trump. How bad? Credible polls show him 10 points behind Biden, and struggling in key swing states as well as what should be easy states, like Georgia. His campaign seems listless at the moment, lacking a clear message or strategy for turning around his bad poll numbers. Theres a story up on Fox News wondering whether Trump might drop out of the race. Is this story based on anything? Since we know Trump follows Fox, this might be a planted story in hopes that it will shake him up sufficiently to focus his mind on regaining the initiative.
Several things give me pause in the Biden Triumphant narrative. First, as we saw in 2016, Trump tends to run ahead of his polls. The Trump vote totals in the uncontested Republican primaries show a lot of enthusiasmmore than for Joe Biden, who doesnt excite anyone. Aside from the usual problems and biases of polling these days, I think the number of shy Trump voters may have soared over the last month because of the riots. Back in 2016, the clever pollsters who got closer to the correct result did so by asking voters who they were voting for, and for Hillary responses, followed up with, Who do you think your neighbor is voting for? For the Hillary respondents who answered Trump, some pollsters correctly surmised (and adjusted their models accordingly) to count some of these supposed Hillary voters as Trump voters.
Second, I also keep thinking of the last national election in Australia, where every poll for the previous 18 months had the Labour Party beating the [conservative] Liberal Party, and yet the Liberal Party prevailed in the vote, largely because the Labour Party campaigned on a hard-left platform. (I know, that could never happen with our good ol centrist Joe Biden! /sarc). Ditto the last general election in Britain, where the Conservative Party was favored, but ended up running way ahead of its polls in the biggest rout of the Labour Party in 80 years. The point is, leftist parties continue to be in retreat in most western democracies; why should our Democratic Party buck this trend?
Third, there is one very significant cross-tab in the current polls. While Biden leads Trump in nearly every specific issue area, the one area where Trump is judged ahead of Biden is the economy, which may turn out to be the most important issue in the fall. Voters understand that our current economic crisis is not Trump or the governments fault. It is hard to say right now whether the economy will be rising in the fall, or whether it relapses if a second wave of COVID-19 strangles the recovery. Either way Trump has a strong argument: does anyone think Bidens proposed massive tax increases are a good idea for a struggling economy? Advantage Trump.
Fourth, there remains Trumps self-inflicted bad habits. But you dont have to be popular or likable to win re-election, especially against a weak challenger. Truman proved this in 1948. (And whaddyaknow, Trump is starting to talk about the do-nothing Congress, though this is tricky as his party is in charge of the Senate.) Gallup has some survey results on this point out this morning. Key part:
A 10-point increase in job approval between now and Election Day would be unprecedented, though this excludes the 1948 election in which Harry Truman came back to win after having a 40% approval rating in June (Gallup’s last job approval rating on Truman before that election). . .
One potentially positive sign for Trump is that while current satisfaction is low, it matches what it was in June 2012, five months before then-President Barack Obama won reelection. The 13-percentage-point improvement in satisfaction in 2012 is one of the larger changes Gallup has measured between the early summer and fall of an election year, surpassed only by a 15-point increase in 1988.
What were things like in July 1988? Oh thats rightMichael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points.
The flip side it not simply Bidens mediocrity and faltering mental state that will be hard conceal through election day (the pandemic quarantine has been a godsend to Biden), but that like Tom Dewey in 1948, he excites nobody in the Democratic Party. The question Jill Filipovic asked in the New York Times last yearDoes Anyone Actually Want Joe Biden to Be President?doesnt get a different answer now:
It is baffling . . . to conclude that the most electable candidate is Joe Biden, an older white man tightly associated with sexual harassment and racism, even if he is polling ahead more than a year before the election. A white male Democrat has not won the White House in more than 20 years; a white male Democrat has not won a majority of American voters since at least the 1970s…
No wonder Biden is picking a running mate who identifies as female and answers to female pronouns. Then, too, Biden has done something quite unusual in this cycle: after having remained (relatively) in the center of the Democratic field, since locking up the nomination he has moved further to the left, rather than making the usual move to the center to attract the all-important median voters.
The greatest concern for a victorious Biden has to be that he will be a 21st century Kerensky, whose very weakness will make him the platform for the revolutionaries who have taken ownership of the Democratic Party. But thats a subject for another day.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 2020; elections; potus
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-32 next last
To: SeekAndFind
Biden has always been a paper tiger. He couldn’t beat the lightweight Dem challengers until the handlers stepped in and bought of the competition.
He’s weak and too sick to the campaign. Total loser.
We got this in the bag - hence all the chaos we’ve seen. Only hope they have.
To: SeekAndFind
meh
Registered voters are useless polls
3
posted on
06/30/2020 7:34:09 PM PDT
by
Nifster
(I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
To: SeekAndFind
How does anyone ever know if polls in July were “accurate”, especially when election results were so different?
4
posted on
06/30/2020 7:35:10 PM PDT
by
Williams
(Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
To: SeekAndFind
At the present time the polls look bad for President Trump. How bad? Credible polls show him 10 points behind Biden, and struggling in key swing states as well as what should be easy states, like GeorgiaI don't buy the premise
5
posted on
06/30/2020 7:35:40 PM PDT
by
frogjerk
(We are conservatives. Not libertarians, not "fiscal conservatives", not moderates)
To: SeekAndFind
Steven Hayward, Never-Trumper.
6
posted on
06/30/2020 7:39:35 PM PDT
by
Ken H
(Best SOTU ever!)
To: SeekAndFind
Steven, how much are you willing to bet that you are right. Money talks, bs walks.
7
posted on
06/30/2020 7:39:36 PM PDT
by
Mark
(Celebrities... is there anything they do not know? -Homer Simpson)
To: SeekAndFind
From Steven F. Hayward, just before the 2016 election =>
___________
Crisis of the Conservative House Divided
By Steven F. Hayward
October 21, 2016 - 2:00 AM
For months it has been clear that in one vital respect Donald Trump’s fate in the presidential election does not matter. Win or lose, he has divided and may yet shatter the conservative movement, a fact that was evident before the Access Hollywood tape gave us a TMI moment barely suitable for TMZ. Who could have foreseen that the Great Pumpkin candidate would turn out to be a Black Swan event for conservatism?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/crisis-of-the-conservative-house-divided
8
posted on
06/30/2020 7:43:09 PM PDT
by
Ken H
(Best SOTU ever!)
To: SeekAndFind
These early sloppy polls tend to be accurate predictors of the general election. Just ask President Hillary.
9
posted on
06/30/2020 7:44:44 PM PDT
by
stormhill
To: Ken H
What I don’t get is how these idiots like Steven Hayward just carry on like they didn’t jump the shark a million times before. No humility nor shame.
10
posted on
06/30/2020 7:48:02 PM PDT
by
frogjerk
(We are conservatives. Not libertarians, not "fiscal conservatives", not moderates)
To: SeekAndFind
Trump can't bring his artillery against the Deep State into play too soon, or the Democrat Media will be able to defuse the situation.
I'm looking for some REAL entertainment in the next few months:
July
August
September
October
Unless I miss my guess, there's going to be an artillery barrage to end all barrages against the Deep State and its Media.
11
posted on
06/30/2020 7:49:46 PM PDT
by
kiryandil
(Chris Wallace: Because someone has to drive the Clown Car)
To: SeekAndFind; All
In political campaigns while the use of Social Electronic Formats are useful in presenting political positions. Relying solely on using those venues is a mistake because of their SEF content limitations and media bias .
Consideration of the use of reprinted material including handouts and flyers such as of articles in FR and the planning of area saturation distribution known as blitzing in the targeted area is essential of one wants to win.
DO WITH THIS PRINT UP PASS OUT IN YOUR PRECINCT
Get News about corruption spiked by MSM
Presented and sourced in Free Republic. com/
An all sides news collecting site by volunteers
with no ads or fees which uses donations
below just a sample Punch up link for
http://www/freerepublic.com/
Virginia Goes Full Libtard, Passes Transgender Educational Mandates for Children,
Other Pro-LGBT Measures DCCL ^Democrats are not just at war with the Bill of Rights;
they are at war with traditional Christian values as well. They moved legislation
through the state senate earlier this week that advances the LGBT agenda.M
One bill will allow transgender people to be issued new birth certificates
that are not based on the sex of their birth. | 1/25/2020 | Dean Garrison http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3811172/postsVirginia
How swamp family members got rich through corruption Schweizer book review; http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3809389/posts
New York Post ^ | January 18, 2020 | Biden$Bundle$ http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3809208/posts More here; http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3809708/posts
Court Filing: Hunter Biden earned $156M from Ukraine corruption
One America News ^ | 12/25/19 | OAN News Posted on 12/26/2019, 8:52:00 PM by Blood of Tyrants http://www.freerepublic.com.focus/f-news/3803694/posts
Hunter Biden is facing new accusations of money laundering from Ukraine .BREAKING: Pelosis Son Now Involved In Ukraine Scandal- Democrat Party In Shambles
Rightwingtribune.com ^ | Dean James & Dean Garrison at DC Clothesline October 4, 2019
Hunter Biden move over. Now Nancy Pelosis son may be looking to take center stage with the Ukraine controversy. Paul Pelosi, Jr. spent time in Ukraine in 2017. BOOM: Nancy Pelosis son Paul Pelosi Jr. (who went to Ukraine in 2017) was a board member of Viscoil and executive at its related company NRGLab, which DID ENERGY Business in UKRAINE! And Nancy Pelosi appeared in a promotional video for the company!
Speaker Pelosis Son Paid $180K annual by InfoUSA (No Experience necessary)12/29/2019, 7:03:41 PM · by Liz · 7 replies
theunionjournal.com ^ | December 29, 2019 | Carlos Christian
Shortly after Nancy Pelosi became Speaker, in 2007, Paul Pelosi Jr. was employed by InfoUSA at $180,000 a year as vice chairman for Strategic Planning. Paul Pelosi had a full-time day job as a mortgage mortgage officer for Countrywide Loans in California but didnt report to work http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3804232/posts
Top Romney Adviser Worked With Hunter Biden On Board Of Ukrainian Energy Company
Federalist ^ | September 26, 2019 | Erielle Davidson Posted on 10/4/2019, 8:14:46 PM by cocoapuff FederalistAccording to Burismas website, Joseph Cofer Black (Romney adviser) was appointed in February of 2017 and continues to serve on its board. The timelines would indicate that Black and Biden worked together at Burisma,
Burisma Paid Joe Biden $900,000 for Lobbying Ukrainian MP
Ukraine News Agency ^ |KYIV. Oct 9 (Interfax-Ukraine) Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden received $900,000 for lobbying activities from Burisma Group, Ukraines Verkhovna Rada member Andriy Derkach said citing investigation materials the amount of $900,000 were transferred to the U.S.-based company Rosemont Seneca Partners, open sources, in particular, the New York Times, is affiliated with Biden. payment for consultative services,;http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3785536/posts
Obama gave Pearson Publishing $350 million to create Commoncore text and Pearson gave Obama a $65 million dollar book deal in return. Investment Watch ^ | 12/8/19 |The Obamas $60m book deal has broken all records. From James Patterson to JK Rowling and Pope John Paul II, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3805839/posts
Chelsea Clinton is worth big bucks Heres how she managed to make all that money Fox News ^ | 1/12/2020 | Tammy Bruce Posted on 1/12/2020, 3:33:01 PM New York Post reported back in 2015 an estimated net worth of $15 million Barrons, revealed that Chelsea Clinton has now reaped $9 million in a corporate board position. In 2011, her mother was still secretary of state, she was appointed to IAC/, an Internet investment company. receives an annual $50,000 retainer and $250,000 worth of IAC stock , according to Barrons .Politico reported she is rewarded with $600,000 a year doing occasional fluffy feature stories.. Vanity Fair found, after she parted ways with NBC News in 2014, she ended up making $26,724 per minute .http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3807636/posts
12
posted on
06/30/2020 7:51:40 PM PDT
by
mosesdapoet
(mosesdapoet aka L.J.Keslin posting here for the record hoping somebody might read and pass around)
To: SeekAndFind
Biden is irrelevant. President Trump just needs to show he can bring order to Society. The question is can he get away with this violently.
Most of the people on the streets are tag alongs to the main organizers. Trump needs to continue rounding up the ring leaders, freeze the bank accounts of the money men. and put fear in the heart of the children joining in.
Rubber bullets, tear gas and paddy wagons will do wonders on getting children off the street since there is no school for them to go to. Snipers will take care of any Marxist with a gun
Use Covid19 to justify crowd control in order to save the elderly if needed.
Pump up the police force let them know they can use force.
Those cities complicit with the Marxist’s bring in the guard after federalizing them. And call them Marxists, for anarchists is too loose of a term for people
13
posted on
06/30/2020 7:54:47 PM PDT
by
MagillaX
To: MagillaX
Whatever happened to water canons? Those are fun.
14
posted on
06/30/2020 7:58:56 PM PDT
by
MrChips
("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
To: Ken H
That was not an anti-Trump article.
15
posted on
06/30/2020 8:00:08 PM PDT
by
lasereye
To: kiryandil
“Trump can’t bring his artillery against the Deep State into play too soon, or the Democrat Media will be able to defuse the situation.”
I just got some info today (can’t talk about it) that confirms what you are saying. May confirm the coup.
To: SeekAndFind
“Credible polls” are like “honest thieves”.
17
posted on
06/30/2020 8:21:07 PM PDT
by
bigbob
(Trust Trump. Trust the Plan)
To: SeekAndFind
18
posted on
06/30/2020 8:38:58 PM PDT
by
grey_whiskers
(The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
To: Mark
Where can someone place a bet that Trump will win
..just asckin for a fren.
19
posted on
06/30/2020 8:41:37 PM PDT
by
spokeshave
(White Confederate statue kills black man......Another month of protests.... (HT to seawolf101))
To: stormhill
6/28/2020Siena/NYT poll
1137 Registered voter (+9 Dem advantage)
Trump 36% Biden 50%
6/26/2016
ABC/Washington Post Poll
836 Registered voters. (+10 Dem advantage)
Trump 37% Clinton 47%
20
posted on
06/30/2020 8:46:22 PM PDT
by
CaptainK
('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-32 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson