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Is Covid-19 Dying Out? Vaccine manufacturers may not be able to test successfully because hardly anyone is getting the virus
Powerline Blog ^ | 05/24/2020 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 05/24/2020 8:36:29 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Is COVID-19 Dying Out?

From the U.K. comes the extraordinary news that vaccine manufacturers may not be able to test their vaccines successfully because hardly anyone is getting the Wuhan virus:

Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.

Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.

The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine’s efficacy.

Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.

Wait–he is afraid that 20 people out of 10,000 (or maybe 5,000, or whatever number get the placebo) won’t catch the virus by going about their normal activities?

“It is a race, yes. But it’s not a race against the other guys,” he said. “It’s a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.

“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining.”

Somehow, this is not the impression we are getting from the Democratic Party press in the U.S., which desperately wants the virus to stick around until November 3.

The Oxford team is not the only one facing this predicament. So far, eight potential vaccines have reached the stage of human trials: four in China, two in the US, one in Germany and the one of the Oxford team. With cases dwindling, all of the teams are looking for hotspots globally where they can conduct their trials.

“You think we’ve got a problem?” Hill asked. “What would you do if you were in China? There are three Chinese companies looking for Phase Three and there’s no COVID in China. So what do they do?”

There is no COVID in China? I had assumed the Chinese government was lying. Perhaps not. Still, if vaccine manufacturers are looking for a sure-fire hot spot to test their products, all they need to do is come to Minnesota and sign up nursing home residents. They won’t have any problem getting positive test results.

I frankly have no idea what to make of this story. I assume the Oxford/Astrazenaca team is looking for volunteers in the U.K., and the U.S. is a little behind the U.K. with regard to the virus’s time line. But still, if new COVID cases are so rare that it is hard to test vaccines, it is long past time to end the absurd shutdowns that have blighted hundreds of millions of lives.

A final observation: why are new cases becoming rare, when countries like the U.K. and the U.S. haven’t had anywhere near enough coronavirus infections to approach herd immunity (at least, as far as we know)? Why do viruses die out? Epidemics follow a bell curve; they disappear long before they infect everyone in a population. Why? Am I the only one who feels like epidemiologists know less than I had always assumed?



TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: covid19; disease; uk; vaccine; vaccines

1 posted on 05/24/2020 8:36:29 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

/democrats weep bitterly


2 posted on 05/24/2020 8:40:51 PM PDT by Salamander (Flying Colours....)
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh, poo!


3 posted on 05/24/2020 8:48:19 PM PDT by lee martell
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To: SeekAndFind

Or be NY, just stay home and have over 60% of cases come from people who hid inside for a month.


4 posted on 05/24/2020 9:14:15 PM PDT by matt04
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To: SeekAndFind

aaawwwww

they will find something else tovtry to microchip people with


5 posted on 05/24/2020 9:16:58 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Johns Hopkins data says there have been 70k+ new cases every day but one since March 31st. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


6 posted on 05/24/2020 9:26:14 PM PDT by Gil4 (And the trees are all kept equal by hatchet, ax and saw)
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To: SeekAndFind
Hospitals Overwhelmed by Flu Patients Are Treating Them in Tents


7 posted on 05/24/2020 9:42:56 PM PDT by blam
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh, you’re gonna make a certain Danny from TN’s heart sink.

LOL


8 posted on 05/24/2020 9:46:51 PM PDT by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: SeekAndFind

Too much sun for the poor virus


9 posted on 05/24/2020 10:07:52 PM PDT by bray (Pray for President Trump)
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To: SeekAndFind

Awwww ... The Gates Vaccine Lobby won’t be able to vaccinate the billions of people multiple times with trace elements for trillions.

So sad!


10 posted on 05/25/2020 12:56:20 AM PDT by Hostage (Article V)
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To: logi_cal869; DannyTN

>> Oh, you’re gonna make a certain Danny from TN’s heart sink.

Not that I agree with his antics, but the FR rules rule...


11 posted on 05/25/2020 1:40:23 AM PDT by Gene Eric ( Don't be a statist!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Gosh the virus is burning itself out


12 posted on 05/25/2020 2:18:26 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: SeekAndFind
Priest in Annandale Catholic Church may have passed on Covid-19 to parishioners. My Sister-In-Law is one of the parishioners who has tested positive.
13 posted on 05/25/2020 2:39:12 AM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.for corruptiion)
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To: SeekAndFind

Geez, just get young, healthy subjects and ask them to give signed permission to be deliberately exposed to the virus! How hard can it be. Are we suddenly incapable of informed consent because it’s the friggin’ Chinese coronavirus???


14 posted on 05/25/2020 2:48:12 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! (when I feel heavy metal) Wu Flu! (when I'm pins and I'm needles) Wu Flu!)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Third paragraph:

But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally.

15 posted on 05/25/2020 3:01:25 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (This tagline is an advertisement-free zone. Is yours?)
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To: SeekAndFind
won’t catch the virus by going about their normal activities?

There were 48.8 million people infected during the 2017-18 flu epidemic where over 79,000 died.

280 million people never caught it.........A virus is a virus, you're either going to catch it or you're not. Masks and "social distancing" just prolongs the inevitable.

16 posted on 05/25/2020 3:24:34 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco
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To: Fresh Wind
Yes, I saw that. Meanwhile, over in the USA, I was able to request a chance to be deliberately exposed to the virus for further research purposes. You can go to the 1 Day Sooner web site to check out that opportunity. So yes, we can make adult decisions, even about being exposed to a pathogen in a controlled setting.

If I'm destined to die from this thing, I'd rather do it under such circumstances than from carelessly handling my mail and then scratching my nose.

Where would you rather die? (Pacific Rim)

17 posted on 05/25/2020 6:07:05 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! (when I feel heavy metal) Wu Flu! (when I'm pins and I'm needles) Wu Flu!)
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To: SeekAndFind

...so that will be the excuse for lack of a vaccine?


18 posted on 05/25/2020 6:09:44 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...siameserescue.org)
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