Posted on 04/16/2020 5:39:12 AM PDT by Liberty7732
It’s looking more like the experts got the handling of COVID-19 wrong. Maybe really wrong.
In analyzing the data from countries who took dramatically different measures in response to COVID-19, from the most severe restrictions to very few restrictions (countries that keep and share good data, not China or Iran) it appears they are all showing essentially the same spread, spikes, flattening and decline. This includes Sweden and others that did not shutdown.
The same phenomenon is playing out among individual states in the U.S. Some went into Stalinist lockdowns (Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) while others never locked down at all and only encouraged social distancing (South Dakota Gov. Krist Noem.) Florida technically did a lockdown, very “late” as Gov. Ron DeSantis is constantly lectured, but even then DeSantis exempted so much it was really not much different than the voluntary social distancing. And Florida’s numbers, which were supposed to be the next hotspot after New York, are tracking ballpark with those that took the most draconian measures.
So again, as with nations, the states are at different timeframes on the graphs, but all looking very similar in a timeframe to timeframe comparison — similar to each other and, this is critical, similar to previous coronavirus outbreaks. That’s a head-scratcher.
Another data set is adding to the suspicions.
Denmark, Scotland and Germany have done thorough antibody testing in specific locals and found infection rates between 12 and 27 times higher than they thought and models had projected. And a majority of the people were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms. This means that the death rate might be wildly lower than is currently suggested, as low as 0.2 percent — which would be very near to the normal flu. It could be close to 1 percent, but that is seeming less likely now, and still way below the 3.4 percent the World Health Organization put out that was used in the Imperial College projections of death totals.
“Many magnitudes more people have been infected with it than we realized,” Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford university, said on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show. “That means the death rate is lower than we thought, by orders of magnitude.”
It’s important to remember that because it is so contagious, the overall numbers may be higher, but then they may not be because of how quickly the peak is reached and the downside starts — much faster than anticipated even with the full lockdowns. Again, that is according to the models.
None of this was jiving with what the experts had said.
And then journalist John Solomon interviewed Dr. Knut Wittkowski, a biomedical researcher, statistician and modeler at Rockefeller University in New York, on his Just The News podcast. And a lot of bewilderment came into clarity. The numbers began making sense if, IF, Wittkowski is right.
First off, he is obviously an expert, but he also is a major outlier among the expert class. However, he mentions in the interview that more and more of his colleagues are agreeing with him and his bottom line, to wit: We not only did not need to shut down economies, we should not have. We may have made it worse by creating a second wave — which coronaviruses in the past did not have.
Wittkkowski said the first big mistake was closing the schools. If they had been left open, it would have gone through the children, who are least affected by the virus, and their parents, who also have low impacts from it. That’s a big way towards herd immunity of 60-70 percent. And the people who are vulnerable to it should stay away from children for the duration, which is a few months.
He said the threat continues to be for the elderly and those with underlying health conditions — something we’ve known almost from the beginning. In that way, he said it is just like all of the previous respiratory viruses such as MERS and SARS. They all differ some in both contagiousness and fatality rate, but the similarities are strong.
Here’s the key: Wittkowski said the shut down probably did not slow the spread because herd immunity would have started kicking in now, or soon, as has been the case in the previous coronavirus outbreaks. However, by truncating the opportunity for herd immunity, we have set ourselves up for the feared “second wave” — something that did not happen in previous coronaviruses because we did not prevent herd immunity with the shutdown.
If Wittkowski is right, at least to some degree, these shutdowns may well have destroyed the strongest economy in history and ultimately made the virus impact worse. That would be a failing of the expert class in truly epic fashion.
Now I do not blame politicians from either party without more information. They relied on experts and did what they were told they should do. DeSantis and some other governors pushed back, but the pressure was great. However, I do blame the experts and the media’s near idolatry of the expert class. Just do what they say!
In reality, we will know by probably mid fall if the expert class made a colossal mistake. And if so, a lot of heads should roll, because mistakes of this magnitude cannot be tolerated.
Although this virus is real, no one can ever convince me that it has been manipulated by the media and leftist politicians to damage POTUS. To the point of being a hoax.
And it will be milked until November 3, 2020
The whole notion of “expert” should really be re-examined.
In my experience, most “experts” are full of hot air and cannot be relied upon to give good advice. Of course, there are exceptions. But the good experts, I think, tend to be more like technicians. They are people with a very narrow focus who can solve very specific sorts of problems.
The whole idea of a “novel virus” is that no one really knows what they’re dealing with. That’s the “novel” part. You can trot out an “expert” on TV and they can give you a lot of advice — but they don’t know what they’re talking about because this is a new thing and they don’t actually have experience with it.
Granted, in the case of a “novel virus” I would rather talk to an epidemiologist who hadn’t seen it before than a plumber who hadn’t seen it before. But I do not worship the “expert” overmuch. He’s probably still full of hot air. Like a general who is fighting the last war. Or as Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face”. Humans muddle through the best they can and it is not always wise to bow down and do whatever the “experts” say.
you can’t rely on any numbers because each state seems to count in a different way....take NYC for example....they’re counting without even a test....
In my. with or old it’s the young self righteous wearing masks and trying to shame those that are not
should be in my neighborhood
Tell me about it Mom MD. We’re in a suburb of Atlanta and the NextDoor hysteria by sorry, but it seems like mostly women, has been off the charts. Pleading with folks to help them find a restaurant that will bring their food to the car so they don’t have to get out of their vehicle. It’s depressing. I had thought the anti-Trump suburban women theory to be bunk but after this, I’m afraid it’s real.
except they will never admit they were wrong. the mantra will see the social distancing worked! we were right all along.
“In reality, we will know by probably mid fall if the expert class made a colossal mistake. And if so, a lot of heads should roll, because mistakes of this magnitude cannot be tolerated.”
Being able to tell, after the fact, that the “experts” were wrong is not particularly helpful.
On my next door app the beta males are just as pathetic posting in all
caps for people to wear useless masks. A pox on all of them. I just want to go up to them in the store without a mask on and say “boo”
Who performed this analysis? Where are the details?
If the quoted statement appeared in the NY Slimes and the sentence ended with "it appears that lockdowns save millions of lives" we'd be demanding answers to the questions I asked.
“It will be interesting to see how the leftist media pivots from first blaming Pres. Tru...”
No it won’t be because they perpetrated this fraud in full knowledge of how flawed and over hyped the data was.
The data was taken from the same London epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, who, in 2009 said the H1N1 swine flu would kill 2 million people and advocated closing schools and social distancing. The media and (D) President ignored him in 2009. Neil Ferguson always overstates viral impacts by at least a factor of 20. Yet this time the media and Deep State went with him and promoted his projections? Why?
But we don’t learn. Fauci said the HIV was going to jump and wipe out the heterosexual population. He was DEAD wrong. And “he” is who we are relying on?
Boston’s Pine Street Inn - essentially a homeless shelter for street bums - test 146 residents and all 146 residents tested positive. All were asymptomatic. This implies that at the 95% confidence level, survival rates are close to 98%. The chances of tossing 146 heads in 146 tries with coin that comes up heads 98% of the time is only 5.2%.
NYC and Northern Italy have, apparently, very high death rates from COVID but how do they define what caused the death. Germany (where I live) have a fairly low death rate attributed to COVID.
We read of hospitals and ICU’s overwhelmed yet we also hear of hospitals empty.
To me, none of this panic makes sense, other than early on when it was apparent that it appeared to spread easily why did we not shelter our old and sick and let the young and healthy get on with life and care for them as we have done for bad seasonal flu's?
“The CDC counted over 70,000 flu deaths in 2018-2019, and around 80,000 in 2017-2018.”
I try not to insult people but you are a damned liar.
Estimate 2018-19 34,000 from the CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
GMTA! I said the exact same thing to my wife last week! I am especially tempted to do it to the people who literally jump to the far side of the aisle as I approach. Useless, hand-wringing sheep, the lot of them.
Not a random sample, so cannot reliably be extrapolated to the larger population.
Right. After three years the impeachment campaign fizzled. The virus was a golden opportunity. No stellar economy to tout any more.
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