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The Evidence Is Coming In: Virus Experts May Have Been Badly Wrong
The Revolutionary Act ^ | 04/16/2020

Posted on 04/16/2020 5:39:12 AM PDT by Liberty7732

It’s looking more like the experts got the handling of COVID-19 wrong. Maybe really wrong.

In analyzing the data from countries who took dramatically different measures in response to COVID-19, from the most severe restrictions to very few restrictions (countries that keep and share good data, not China or Iran) it appears they are all showing essentially the same spread, spikes, flattening and decline. This includes Sweden and others that did not shutdown.

The same phenomenon is playing out among individual states in the U.S. Some went into Stalinist lockdowns (Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) while others never locked down at all and only encouraged social distancing (South Dakota Gov. Krist Noem.) Florida technically did a lockdown, very “late” as Gov. Ron DeSantis is constantly lectured, but even then DeSantis exempted so much it was really not much different than the voluntary social distancing. And Florida’s numbers, which were supposed to be the next hotspot after New York, are tracking ballpark with those that took the most draconian measures.

So again, as with nations, the states are at different timeframes on the graphs, but all looking very similar in a timeframe to timeframe comparison — similar to each other and, this is critical, similar to previous coronavirus outbreaks. That’s a head-scratcher.

Another data set is adding to the suspicions.

Denmark, Scotland and Germany have done thorough antibody testing in specific locals and found infection rates between 12 and 27 times higher than they thought and models had projected. And a majority of the people were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms. This means that the death rate might be wildly lower than is currently suggested, as low as 0.2 percent — which would be very near to the normal flu. It could be close to 1 percent, but that is seeming less likely now, and still way below the 3.4 percent the World Health Organization put out that was used in the Imperial College projections of death totals.

“Many magnitudes more people have been infected with it than we realized,” Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford university, said on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show. “That means the death rate is lower than we thought, by orders of magnitude.”

It’s important to remember that because it is so contagious, the overall numbers may be higher, but then they may not be because of how quickly the peak is reached and the downside starts — much faster than anticipated even with the full lockdowns. Again, that is according to the models.

None of this was jiving with what the experts had said.

And then journalist John Solomon interviewed Dr. Knut Wittkowski, a biomedical researcher, statistician and modeler at Rockefeller University in New York, on his Just The News podcast. And a lot of bewilderment came into clarity. The numbers began making sense if, IF, Wittkowski is right.

First off, he is obviously an expert, but he also is a major outlier among the expert class. However, he mentions in the interview that more and more of his colleagues are agreeing with him and his bottom line, to wit: We not only did not need to shut down economies, we should not have. We may have made it worse by creating a second wave — which coronaviruses in the past did not have.

Wittkkowski said the first big mistake was closing the schools. If they had been left open, it would have gone through the children, who are least affected by the virus, and their parents, who also have low impacts from it. That’s a big way towards herd immunity of 60-70 percent. And the people who are vulnerable to it should stay away from children for the duration, which is a few months.

He said the threat continues to be for the elderly and those with underlying health conditions — something we’ve known almost from the beginning. In that way, he said it is just like all of the previous respiratory viruses such as MERS and SARS. They all differ some in both contagiousness and fatality rate, but the similarities are strong.

Here’s the key: Wittkowski said the shut down probably did not slow the spread because herd immunity would have started kicking in now, or soon, as has been the case in the previous coronavirus outbreaks. However, by truncating the opportunity for herd immunity, we have set ourselves up for the feared “second wave” — something that did not happen in previous coronaviruses because we did not prevent herd immunity with the shutdown.

If Wittkowski is right, at least to some degree, these shutdowns may well have destroyed the strongest economy in history and ultimately made the virus impact worse. That would be a failing of the expert class in truly epic fashion.

Now I do not blame politicians from either party without more information. They relied on experts and did what they were told they should do. DeSantis and some other governors pushed back, but the pressure was great. However, I do blame the experts and the media’s near idolatry of the expert class. Just do what they say!

In reality, we will know by probably mid fall if the expert class made a colossal mistake. And if so, a lot of heads should roll, because mistakes of this magnitude cannot be tolerated.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: aspredicted
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1 posted on 04/16/2020 5:39:12 AM PDT by Liberty7732
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To: Liberty7732
The boy who cried wolf. In the future when we have a REAL health crisis, no one will listen.
2 posted on 04/16/2020 5:41:48 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: Liberty7732

These hysterical Leftists put far more people out of work than Sen. Joe McCarthy ever did.


3 posted on 04/16/2020 5:43:35 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (The fish wrap media promoted Obama's Benghazi lies in 2012.)
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To: Liberty7732

Very good analysis.


4 posted on 04/16/2020 5:43:55 AM PDT by tired&retired (Blessings)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Bill Gates is the Al Gore Junior of pandemic panics.

Both aim to get rich and powerful selling doomsday predictions


5 posted on 04/16/2020 5:45:33 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (The fish wrap media promoted Obama's Benghazi lies in 2012.)
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To: Liberty7732

States with a hard-core lockdown and states without it would show similar results if the people in the states with hard-core lockdown aren’t paying much attention to it. Here in Pennsylvania, I saw LOTS of people - even older people, without masks or anything else going into the grocery store.


6 posted on 04/16/2020 5:46:12 AM PDT by Pravious
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To: Liberty7732

That’s right. All of this was for nothing. Now can we please reopen the economy? The bigger issue will. e getting the word to my sheeple neighbors who want to know where to report someone out walking their dog without a mask on. I wish they would stay isolated forever but unfortunately there are too many of them and the economy needs them


7 posted on 04/16/2020 5:49:15 AM PDT by Mom MD
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To: Liberty7732

Not one expert was wrong.

A lot of people who had the ability to can a portion of the population into believing that they were more knowledgeable and more honest than they are were wrong, and some of those people have talked their way into jobs they aren’t capable of performing.

But zero experts were wrong.


8 posted on 04/16/2020 5:50:38 AM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: Liberty7732

Who I sue?


9 posted on 04/16/2020 5:52:04 AM PDT by Lockbox
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To: Liberty7732

Poor Mr Thompson and poor Liberty7732; trying to bring logic and reason to a forum filled with folks who are already drunk on the panic Koolaid, convinced they are wonderful saviors by participating in hibernating everyone from everyone at the government’s command. Meanwhile bad ole “socialist” Sweden ignores that Koolaid.


10 posted on 04/16/2020 5:54:16 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Liberty7732
In reality, we will know by probably mid fall if the expert class made a colossal mistake. And if so, a lot of heads should roll, because mistakes of this magnitude cannot be tolerated.
Anyone have the list of stages of a project? Enthusiasm to start - and at the end, rewards for failure and blame for the people who were right.

The colossal mistake, if such it was, was by the Fauchis and Birxes of the world - enthusiastically (per usual) supported by journalism.


11 posted on 04/16/2020 5:56:15 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (Socialism is cynicism directed towards society and - correspondingly - naivete towards government.)
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To: Mom MD

Walking their dog with out a mask? Oh the horror.
Dogs should have masks. They might spread something.

All kidding aside, I see lots of people around here with no protection in the grocery. Most of the old folks are wearing masks.


12 posted on 04/16/2020 5:56:32 AM PDT by Texas resident (The American media is our enemy)
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To: Liberty7732
If Wittkowski is right, at least to some degree, these shutdowns may well have destroyed the strongest economy in history and ultimately made the virus impact worse. That would be a failing of the expert class in truly epic fashion.

It will be interesting to see how the leftist media pivots from first blaming Pres. Trump for responding to the Corona "crisis" too late, then claiming he should not have responded at all.

13 posted on 04/16/2020 6:02:10 AM PDT by Flick Lives (A liberal is someone who worries that somewhere, someone is enjoying life.)
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To: Liberty7732

Given the incubation rate and the speed of travel by airplane, this virus may likely have already been inside the country before we fully realized it. This isn’t 1918 and 1919 where you took a ship home. This is 2020, where airplanes have flown all the way across the oceans (At least the Atlantic) for almost 100 years.


14 posted on 04/16/2020 6:03:47 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: Liberty7732

2500 people died from Coronavirus yesterday in the US, but 30,000 died of the flu each year. Not even close.


15 posted on 04/16/2020 6:04:32 AM PDT by BobL
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To: Flick Lives

I am certain that they will. Trump always has to be wrong to them, no matter what he does.


16 posted on 04/16/2020 6:04:37 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: BobL

30,000 is an old number. The CDC counted over 70,000 flu deaths in 2018-2019, and around 80,000 in 2017-2018.


17 posted on 04/16/2020 6:05:43 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion
Anyone have the list of stages of a project?

Here you go:


18 posted on 04/16/2020 6:06:59 AM PDT by capydick (“Within the covers of the Bible are the answers for all the problems men face.)
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To: Liberty7732

I guess this Dr Witkowski feels deBlasio is a hero. He took forever to close the schools, even after teachers in his largest school, Brooklyn Tech ( 6700 students and staff) had tested positive. And the students come from four of the five boroughs and take mass transit. And of course they have working parentd and younger siblings. So they did a great job spreading the virus. NYC has done so much better than elsewhere...oh wait...


19 posted on 04/16/2020 6:09:00 AM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: Liberty7732
Virus Experts May Have Been Badly Bigly Wrong.
20 posted on 04/16/2020 6:09:42 AM PDT by varon (Run the conspirators to ground)
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