Posted on 03/25/2020 8:19:42 AM PDT by shortstop
It turns out Cuomo was wrong.
If his numbers yesterday are correct, if the graph of New York coronavirus cases and deaths has juked unexpectedly upward, then he was wrong.
Tragically, fatally wrong.
And New York City and the nation will probably suffer unimaginably as a result.
If the numbers are correct, and if social distancing and the flatten-the-curve approach are correct, then Cuomo should have ordered his New York Pause some three weeks earlier. And he should have embraced – instead of killed – Mayor Bill de Blasio’s consideration of a complete shutdown of New York City.
But he didn’t. And as a result, America’s largest city has become a new ground zero, to such an extent that a presidential advisor has recommended all people leaving the city self-quarantine for 14 days, to reduce the likelihood of taking the disease with them across the face of the nation.The dramatic uptick in coronavirus numbers released Tuesday by Gov. Andrew Cuomo seems to indicate that early New York efforts to control the disease were almost worse than ineffective. The pattern of spread is not as bad as the projections of what would happen if nothing was done to fight the disease – they are worse.
Which means that the governor can hold a good press conference, but he’s not that good at protecting his state and its largest city.
That conclusion, of course, presumes that what we’re being told about the coronavirus is accurate, that our various projections of spread and theories of containment are right. Public health and political leaders have defined the coronavirus pandemic in America as a matter of keeping the number of critical patients below the number of available intensive-care hospital beds, and of achieving that – in the absence of a vaccine – by social distancing arrived at through a combination of personal actions and government-ordered social shutdowns.
It is a logical argument.
But the irony of coronavirus social restrictions is that we are being asked to trust politicians and public health officials who created this dilemma by failing to adequately prepare our medical system for the foreseeable eventuality of a respiratory epidemic.
We are being asked to accept the flatten-the-curve paradigm by the same medical and government people – and the same governor – whose paradigm of hospital preparation created the problem which is currently crippling our country, and which may fundamentally weaken our personal and national finances for years to come.
Cuomo in 2015 was advised he was 16,000 respirators short of what he would need in the event of an epidemic. He was told he had one-ninth of the number he needed. But instead of buying more, as he was advised, he chose to commission a panel to create a rubric for – in the event of having more patients than respirators – deciding who would be denied a respirator in the case of an emergency.
That means he decided that, in the event of an epidemic, eight-ninths of critically ill New Yorkers would have to die.
That’s the Matilda’s Law that matters.
And now, as the respirator chickens are coming home to roost, and New Yorkers are dying by the dozens daily, Cuomo’s plan is unraveling. Preparations were based on a worst-case scenario of 110,000 critically ill patients at the epidemic’s peak, and the governor now believes it will be 140,000. And instead of that peak arriving in 45 days, it will be here in 14 or 21. That makes the peak much higher and much sooner than the governor anticipated, and that change came about after the implementation of three weeks of steady gubernatorial control.
He’s got great confidence, and he gives nice psychological counseling, but it’s not working.
At the root is humanity’s consistent weakness at predicting the future. People can make nice arguments and show pretty charts and graphs, but nobody knows what tomorrow brings. And nobody knows beforehand if universally accepted theories are right.
That left Cuomo without a crystal ball, and relying completely upon the social distancing flatten-the-curve approach. And Tuesday showed that thus far that hasn’t worked.
At least not yet. If flatten-the-curve is right and it can be achieved by social distancing, then after another two or three weeks – when the effects of the New York Pause may have kicked in – things should be expected to improve. If all the hypotheticals line up, there should be a decline in the rate of growth of new cases and deaths – not that the peak has been reached, but that the pause has started to choke off the spread.
But, again, humans aren’t good at predicting the future.
None of this should be discouraging, or take anybody by surprise. Failure is often part of the process of success. Many wars have been won by generals who lost battles. The Union Army lost Bull Run, but won Appomattox. America lost at Pearl Harbor, but won at Nagasaki.
The fight against this pandemic is a journey of discovery, and failure can teach you as much as success.
Andrew Cuomo has lost the opening round of the fight against the coronavirus, but hopefully can learn from that to help him fare better in the rounds that still lie ahead of us.
After 50 percent of us get the virus things will slow down.
We have at least one FReeper here who has expressed sorrow that Cuomo isn’t running for president.
Mark Levin talked about CON Laws (Certificate of Need) in which STATES mandate medical supplies purchased and even decide the number of doctors who can be admitted to practice.
Nobody is talking about this. So Cuomo doesn’t apparently know this also isn’t Trump’s fault. It’s the State government that has to act or change their law on this.
He’ll have to get a sex change, Slow Joe says it will be a woman.
SCREW HIM, he had the chance to order 16,000 ventilators in 2015 sent the purchase order back to DC, DECLINED, now this asshat wants to blame Trump because no ventilators!! Just like Obama and Biden depleting the USA reserves of emergency masks AND not replacing the reserves NOW blame Trump because the masks are not getting to them fast enough!! Disgusting!!!
Levin is absolutely right. NYS DOH determines need, not the hospital. in NY state, if an evil billionaire donated $100-million to a hospital to fund the construction of a new wing with a couple of hundred beds, the hospital would need to get permission from the state. the state DOH determines if those beds are needed. approval process takes months.....they need to review the design....
That would explain all the grandstanding with the demands that the Fed. govt. commit more material funds to NYS.
New York State is demanding, based on the data of infections, but they are just the first, and the loudest in line.
Louisiana has experienced a tenfold (10 X) since the conclusion of Mardi Gras, and is the fastest growing infection rate in the U.S.
caww:And when they did, asking him to pay the going rate of 25% with the Gov/US picking up 75%,
he refused and said he wouldn’t pay. "
That's not surprising considering all the "freebies" given to immigrants (free healthcare, free college tuition, etc.).
Just wait until all those dislocated students want dorm room rent refunds and tuition refunds.
The State will be financially bankrupt, especially with so many workers being at home in another State which will affect the State tax income.
For all practical purpose, anthrax spores can last forever.
Even to some idiots here at FreeRepublic. /for real
bookmark
Blow up all the Bridges and Tunnels in and out of NYC.
It’s the only way to be sure.
According to this site (CNN - so you may just want to take my word for it instead of giving them hits - I certainly do not vouch the accuracy of CNN) New York currently has 30,811 confirmed case.
He is about as much as Robert DeNiro as a president, only a little prettier.
Lord Almighty, the guy is a cafone (uncouth, boorish) of the first order.
I translated the word for ya’ll.
Less than 2 weeks ago, Mayor DidHeBlowMe was dragging the Presidents guidelines and encouraging New Yorkers to get out a do things. I believe the spread occurred readily in the Subway. Mayor killed thousands.
Cuomo speaks out of both sides of his big mouth. He is one of the most disgusting Demorats out there....like Slick Will Clinton only people see easily right through him.
NewYork is like California....both think the rest of the world should practice like they do. But it’s always those two states that create chaos and far reaching hands into the US taxpayers pockets.
Georgia also is headed into rough waters.....things are just bginning to esculate..heck in Pittsburgh they were 58 cases this morning and by afternoon they were at 88 cases.
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