Posted on 03/16/2020 1:22:28 PM PDT by nickcarraway
According to a number of cognitive scientists, mankind uses its unique ability to reason primarily for justifying pre-held convictions, rather than for forming convictions. It is of critical importance for strategists to understand and acknowledge this human tendency, as it causes one to easily fall prey to a number of cognitive biases, which prevent one from seeing things how they really are, and more important for the strategist, how they are likely to become.
One of the most famous cognitive biases is confirmation bias. As we prefer to be proven correct, we naturally incline towards information that confirms our views and try to ignore or reason away information that does not.
This tendency was on full display before, during and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. At that time most analysts were continuously behind the facts, consequently underestimating what would happen next, because reality went against ideas and conviction that had become loved in the financial community, such as the perfect market theory and the idea that through derivates risks could be managed away. For most financial strategists, it was simply too painful for many to acknowledge these ideas were incorrect (or at a minimum: contained serious flaws), even though the evidence was there, which would eventually lead Queen Elizabeth to ask them “Why did no one see this coming?”. Of course, not everyone didn’t see it coming. Those who were able to manage their confirmation bias either made a lot of money or became famous…
Now that the world is battling another unprecedented crisis in the coronavirus, the biggest risk for energy strategists is to fall prey to cognitive biases, in which case their forecasts would be about what they would like to see happen, rather than about what is likely to happen. This article is an attempt at
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
Saw $1.649 this morning...25¢ less than I filled up for just a few days back.
Companies that sell precious metals are doing some booming business right now. On the 13th, then silver dropped to $14/oz, I bought a roll of silver eagles for $396, which is a decent (though not great) price for them. Today, when silver is running at $13.10, the same roll costs $450. I passed on it today. The same site normally has a crapload of ‘rounds’ available at not much more than spot price. Today, they are pretty much out of everything. So, even with silver down, you can’t buy.
Here’s one you’ll remember
“Checkat ole”?
*** “Gas was around 90 cents a gallon” ***
I remember 13.5 cents a gallon ... had a 61 Pontiac Catalina 400 HO w Duel Quads (came stock with a 389 2 bbl) and I could afford to drive it as a Teenager (the Gas anyway, Tickets were another story)
I really miss that car ... known as a “Bubble Top” to me it is still the most Beautiful Car ever! It didn’t handle worth a crap and got about 4 miles per gallon but I LOVED it.
Lowest I’ve paid out of my pocket was .35 cents in 1969.
I can remember my folks paying .25 cents in the early 60’s.
“Oil Price” is pretty good when it sticks to what is happening in the oilfield relative to exploration and new fields of production, rig count, current production, demand salaries etc.
Never forget they are not honest brokers of truth if it is political. They are left of center and not to be trusted except on basic facts that can be confirmed. When an article talks about global politics more than the basic oilfield that is a sign of “beware what they say.”
I read “Oil Price.” The first half of my life was in the oilfields. I know Bull Sh-t in relationship to the oilfield when I read it.
I’m old enough to remember very cheap gas but even then I could barely afford it. ;)
I had a 1959 Volkswagon Bug. Rusted out floor, had an old license plate over the hole in the floor. Heater barely worked. Defroster didn’t work. I’d reach around to wipe the windshield at traffic lights.
We to 4 years of law school, during the 1977/78 snow blizzards, with minus 20 one Sunday. The Ohio river froze.
I’d fill up for 3.00. Last me a week.
LOL. I too remember the barely working heater, wiping snow off the front window at traffic stops, and a slipping clutch. Good times. Brings back lots of fond memories. :)
LOL .. yep!
No
17.9c in Missouri - early 60s.
“Massachusetts is on the verge of increasing gas taxes
When prices go down the rats try to use it to sneak through gas tax increases. Especially in states that use percentage.
It won’t sound like much until the prices go back up.
I remember I had a driveaway from Florida to Boston in the mid-70’s. I paid 23 or 24 cents/gallon in South Carolina.
I remember I had a driveaway from Florida to Boston in the mid-70’s. I paid 23 or 24 cents/gallon in South Carolina.
Oh wait... it was the early 70’s, around ‘72. Oil did its first OPEC spike around 1974.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.