China Update: Some Predictions Indicate Wuhan Coronavirus Could Turn Into Major Pandemic

GATEWAY PUNDIT ^ | 1/25/2020 | Joe Hoft

[bitt]

The ‘Year of the Rat’ started with little celebration as the entire country of China is overwhelmed with the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus.

Experts are now warning of the possibility of an epidemic. One doctor on Twitter discussed the danger of the Wuhan coronavirus:

(SEE tweets and charts)

[bitt]

p

[LukeL]

Right now even the predictions of doctors means nothing as China is not giving the full picture to the world.

[BenLurkin]

“live thread”

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3810739/posts

[lurk]

Inability to respond to sudden change is one of the built-in flaws of collectivism.

[the_daug]

What was that commercial parody Rush had; something like.
subscribe to bad living magazine
We’re afraid of everything
and we want you to be too.

[cuban leaf]

The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.

The flu and the common cold are “pandemic”. So?

[grey_whiskers]

The Communist Party Central Committee has had a meeting on pneumonia due to the novel coronavirus.
President / Premier / Head Honcho Xi (”Winnie the Pooh Flu”) has publicly announced that this is a grave health crisis (he used the word grave, or whatever the Chinese word is that gets translated into grave) and that transmission is *accelerating*.
China has canceled existing tours / hotel packages.
China has locked down 53 MILLION people, they can’t leave their cities.
Russia, France, and the US are removing their citizens from Wuhan.
The South China Daily News reports the case of a family with this from MID-JANUARY where the 10-year old had “ground glass” appearance in the lungs (yes, Google it, it’s a real result on X-rays) and yet was entirely asyptomatic.
A Harvard School Of Public Health member has estimated the R value (# of people infected by each carrier) as up to 4; since revised “downward” to only 2.5
Even by official statistics, (and a heat map put out by Johns Hopkins) it looks like the fatality rate is 2%-3%.

[Mariner]

“The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.”

So far it’s tracking at about 3% mortality.

With a reproduction baseline of 1.9 to 3.8.

At that rate several million could be infected by the end of the month. And by the end of next month several hundred million.

At 3% death rate, and an ICU rate of about 20%.

There’s really no good news at all.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

So far it’s tracking at about 3% mortality.

So far it’s tracking at reported rate of about 3% mortality.

Who, not WHO, but maybe Hu, is doing the reporting.

[allendale]

The big question is do different population subgroups have a genetic predisposition to infection from this coronavirus or will the virus infect virtually every subgroup with the same virulence? It seems to effect Chinese Asiatics pretty hard. What about Caucasians,Africans and other groups?

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/burton_pond/status/1221127540707905543

[Eagles Field]

The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.

The flu and the common cold are “pandemic”. So?
********************************************
Thanks, I feel much better. The cold is pandemic, wait, but you don’t die ... Thanks again Inspector Whatever.

[janetjanet998]

It seems to effect Chinese Asiatics pretty hard. What about Caucasians,Africans and other groups?

---

are you implying that there may slight differences between the races?

RACIST!!!!

You probably also think men and women are different

[allendale]

Sadly this question, entirely valid, necessary and appropriate, when asked in certain academic centers can and has led to the ruination of careers. Political correctness is delusion and antithetical to true academic endeavors which ought to be aimed at understanding reality.

[Eagles Field]

RACIST!!!!

You probably also think men and women are different
____________________________________________

Right ?! He probably ignores there are 57 genders now ... or is it states. Either way, I’m feeling very marginalized at the moment.

[voicereason]

So far it’s tracking at reported rate of about 3% mortality.

Based on the current "reported" levels of those infected, at what point would the entire medical system come to a screeching halt where it is unable to even treat a handful of patients? If critical mass is reached within the healthcare systems, what would be the likelihood of the mortality rising significantly? That should be real cause of concern, because if critical mass is reached, then the overall mortality rate will likely rise even for other previously treatable illnesses. That should be a real concern for everyone.

[null and void]

Spot on!

[null and void]

So are some of our senators...