The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.
The flu and the common cold are “pandemic”. So?
The Communist Party Central Committee has had a meeting on pneumonia due to the novel coronavirus.
President / Premier / Head Honcho Xi (”Winnie the Pooh Flu”) has publicly announced that this is a grave health crisis (he used the word grave, or whatever the Chinese word is that gets translated into grave) and that transmission is *accelerating*.
China has canceled existing tours / hotel packages.
China has locked down 53 MILLION people, they can’t leave their cities.
Russia, France, and the US are removing their citizens from Wuhan.
The South China Daily News reports the case of a family with this from MID-JANUARY where the 10-year old had “ground glass” appearance in the lungs (yes, Google it, it’s a real result on X-rays) and yet was entirely asyptomatic.
A Harvard School Of Public Health member has estimated the R value (# of people infected by each carrier) as up to 4; since revised “downward” to only 2.5
Even by official statistics, (and a heat map put out by Johns Hopkins) it looks like the fatality rate is 2%-3%.
“The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.”
So far it’s tracking at about 3% mortality.
With a reproduction baseline of 1.9 to 3.8.
At that rate several million could be infected by the end of the month. And by the end of next month several hundred million.
At 3% death rate, and an ICU rate of about 20%.
There’s really no good news at all.
The good news is that it’s not really all that fatal.
The flu and the common cold are “pandemic”. So?
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Thanks, I feel much better. The cold is pandemic, wait, but you don’t die ... Thanks again Inspector Whatever.
Seems to make sense - current spread rate is very similar to Flu and that’s in a very high density “ground zero” environment...