Posted on 12/01/2019 7:24:48 AM PST by EyesOfTX
This damn Trump economy just refuses to cooperate with all the “experts.” – This Black Friday was, at least according to all the “experts” quoted by cable news operations an the nation’s other corrupt media outlets, supposed to be a down year. According to their joint narrative with the Democrat Party, the Trump Economy was supposed to be lurching along into a new recession, one that would arrive just in time to impact President Trump’s chances for re-election in 2020.
Given that 2/3rds of U.S. Gross Domestic Product – GDP – is derived from consumer spending, this media/Democrat/”experts” narrative meant it was necessary for Black Friday’s spending to be down from last year and the year before that. Thus, those were the predictions we were getting from people on MSNBC, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg and on and on throughout the fake, corrupt, narrative-driven media.
But the problem with this narrative is a fundamental one: It is not true. The Trump economy is not bumbling along to another recession at all, as evidenced by third quarter jobs numbers and economic growth estimates having been revised upwards by over 10% in recent weeks. Those revisions would have been taken by real “experts” as warning signs that they were promoting a false story to the American public. But when the “experts” are fake, the warning signs go unnoticed.
The next big warning to the purveyors of fake news should have come when Adobe, which surveys 80 of the top 100 retailers in the U.S., announced early on Friday that Thanksgiving Day online sales had come in at a record high $4.2 billion, a 14.5% increase over 2018. In that same report, Adobe said that Black Friday’s online sales had already reached $600 million by 9:00 ET, a whopping 19.2% rise from 2018, which put it on a pace to reach $7.4 million for the day, far and away a record for any Black Friday, and the second-highest online sales day in history, behind last year’s Cyber Monday total.
Adobe confirmed that $7.4 billion Black Friday total in a follow-up report on Saturday, and now projects that Cyber Monday sales could reach a phenomenal $9.4 billion, almost 20% higher than last year’s record $7.9 billion. And finally, “small business Saturday” sales were projected by Adobe to reach $3.0 billion, up 18% over the record set in 2018.
These are not indicators of an economy limping along towards the contraction the “expert” narrative engineers prefer. While these double-digit jumps in online sales were partially offset by about 6% lower foot-traffic sales at malls and brick-and-mortar stores, per an initial estimate by ShopperTrak, the overall picture this massive consumer spending paints is one of a vibrant and very healthy economy.
Just a personal anecdote about that foot traffic: It may be down slightly across the country, but in Las Vegas it is wall-to-wall people. The little wifey and I touched down here on early Friday afternoon, and everyone we have spoken with is stunned by the masses of people flowing through this city’s casinos and high-end shopping centers this weekend.
It’s just one city, but it makes us wonder if we won’t see those ShopperTrak estimates quietly revised upwards in the coming days. This low-ball estimate followed by a quiet upwards revision process has, after all, become an integral part of the anti-Trump narrative, after all. Why stop now?
In any event, this record Thanksgiving consumer weekend is just one more instance of an agenda-based, narrative-driven media and group of “experts” trying to influence the public into creating a slowing economy based on fear and fear alone. The big problem they have at this point is that they have played the boy who cried wolf so many times now that the public no longer pays any attention to them.
God Bless America and its’ President, Donald J. Trump.
I did my fair share. Bought a new TV to replace my old TV which died 2 weeks ago. It was half price.
Our Economy has been blessed by God because Trump blessed Israel.
Genesis 12:3
All the experts surrounding Obama were deep into the marxist muslim “death to America” agenda.
Marxists cannot ride a capitalists bicycle.
Krugman, who has not made a correct call for an extended period (years) is saddened.
I got a 65” ROKU TV for under $500 - will buy a “Total Gym”, as advertised by Chuck Norris, in the post Christmas “slump”...
A couple factors
1) An increase in Thanksgiving Day sales is mostly due to more stores now being open on Thanksgiving. But other things being equal, an increase on Thanksgiving Day should mean a decrease on the following days. But there was no such decrease.
2) Despite the gloomy forecasts of the academic experts, the retail stores have expected a record breaking season. For that reason they have loaded up on inventory more than other years and they have hired more seasonal employees. More seasonal employees means more people with money in their pocket. The season feeds itself. More people working and shopping also means more people missing the doom and gloom on their TV sets. They are too busy to watch that crap.
3) More people get paychecks every two weeks on Friday than any other day. That means they get 26 checks in 24 months and there are 2 months a year when they get 3 checks. November 2019 is one of those monnths when they get 3 paychecks in one month. Most bills are monthly.
So even the calendar is rigged for Trump and against the Malthusians.
Other people could point out other factors as to the specifics of the dynamics involved.
4) Trump created an optimism in small businesspeople with his talk of deregulations. Trump has cut some regulations. There are still much excessive regulation to cut. Small business people are optimistic that Trump will not enforce the stupid regs that still exist. This is especially true of regs that start at 50 employees. Many small businesses kept things under 50 employees because the extra money was just not worth the extra hassles. Now there is expectation that there will be no extra hassles with the extra money. So small businesses are hiring.
5) Many of the current additional employees are seasonal, partime. Some of thse employees have it as a second job and do not want it permanent. But many of these seasonal employees want permanent jobs. How many will be offered permanent positiions depends on the mood of the employer. If Trump meets expectations and continues to remove the ridiculous excessive regulations, especially the record keeping around these regulations, then employers will keep on many of thse seasonal workers as permanent. But if it looks like these excessive regulations will continue, then the seasonal workers will be seasonal and the economy loses that piston of the engine.
IMHO, all of this consumer spending shows that President Trump’s middle class tax cut is working.
I just hammered the doom and gloom crew at MarketWatch with excerpts from this article. They are posting that sales are down, things look bad, market about to crash.
Hope margins are just as good....
Adobe, which surveys 80 of the top 100 retailers in the U.S., announced early on Friday that Thanksgiving Day online sales had come in at a record high $4.2 billion, a 14.5% increase over 2018. In that same report, Adobe said that Black Friday’s online sales had already reached $600 million by 9:00 ET, a whopping 19.2% rise from 2018, which put it on a pace to reach $7.4 million for the day, far and away a record for any Black Friday, and the second-highest online sales day in history, behind last year’s Cyber Monday total. Adobe confirmed that $7.4 billion Black Friday total in a follow-up report on Saturday, and now projects that Cyber Monday sales could reach a phenomenal $9.4 billion, almost 20% higher than last year’s record $7.9 billion. And finally, “small business Saturday” sales were projected by Adobe to reach $3.0 billion, up 18% over the record set in 2018.
The “experts” aren’t really experts. When will we learn?
I like Blackmon’s articles, but what’s with the misuse of the apostrophe in the last sentence? I mean, come on, proofread your stuff...
Let’s make liberals drown in their own tears by making this the most booming economy ever. If you have some money to invest, I suggest this is the time.
I do a little most months.
The bulk goes to 401k.
This year I get a COLA raise and the medical insurance didn’t correspond. I plan to up my contribution another couple percent.
These people, overall, do not understand business. They do not understand what an increase in cash flow and a reduction in expense related to government reduction of regulation does for business. They do not understand what it means to inject more foreign capital in to the US in various ways. They do not understand what happens when Trump does deal after deal after deal that results in more cash infusion in to American companies. They can’t seem to grasp that super low unemployment translates in to money streams that they cannot see if they use their historical ways of analyzing things.
Basically, they ain’t too bright. The best examples of this besides the pundits that miss the mark in the media are the absurd democrat candidates for president who like Obama couldn’t run a lemonade stand. They just don’t have the money skills of a kid who throws papers (a dying art) or one who cuts grass or paints houses.
What Trump has been doing is pretty simple, create more cash flow. Reduce expenses. More people to work.
Trump has been almost to a fault simply brilliant. And why all the people mentioned above are asleep or sitting Trump is moving and moving and moving.
As far as I’m concerned we can do Trump until 2024 then let Donald Jr. go 8 years then Ivanka. Because these people can read a balance sheet.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Media...
From Krugman to Bill Maher to Bill Gates to Robert Redford to George Soros - - liberal 'elites' are working to collapse the economy ...
The misery caused by an economic collapse won't affect them - liberal elites 'got theirs' after all. They don't give a damn about traditional Americans or our families...
So what is motive for liberal 'elites'?
A democrat in office helps elites get more AND it gives them a nice place to party when in DC. Yes - they are that shallow.
The “experts” hate Trump so his economy can’t possibly work. It’s an odd sort of logic for an “expert”. Intellectuals aren’t what they used to be.
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