Posted on 06/16/2019 7:05:23 AM PDT by EyesOfTX
Today’s Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends)
People keep telling me that I’m really going out on a limb with my all-but-guarantee that Joe Biden will not be the Democrat nominee in 2020. The truth is that that is the safest prediction I’ve made about this race.
The history of presidential politics is littered with the rotting carcasses of early favorites in contested presidential nominating battles who ended up being left behind when the actual convention rolled around.
Remember 1972 Democrat nominee Edmund Muskie? Yeah, neither do I. Well, I sort of remember Edmund Muskie, who was the party establishment’s favorite as the campaign season began, but Democrat voter base, radicalized by the hippie movement moving into adulthood and the early reports of the Watergate scandal, were looking for a much more radical alternative that year. Ultimately, the party presented closet Marxist George McGovern to the country, and an electoral slaughter of epic proportions ensued, despite the media’s best efforts to destroy Richard Nixon.
Sound familiar?
What about 1976 Democrat nominee Morris Udall, the early polling leader and establishment favorite? Or nominee Birch Bayh, who won the Iowa Caucuses? Remember them? No? Well, it turned out that Democrat voters that year weren’t in the mood to nominate some old DC swamp creature, which you are going to soon discover is a very common theme in this essay. Instead, they wanted a fresh face, and ended up saddling the country with Jimmy Carter, who at the time was the freshest face we’d ever seen.
Yeah, that didn’t work out well, did it?
Remember when early polls told us that Ted Kennedy was going to beat Carter for the nomination in 1980 after Carter’s disastrous term in office? Remember when that didn’t happen, either?
Guess who the early polling leader for the nomination in the 1984 race was? Remember how Gary Hart won that year’s nomination? No? Neither does anyone else. That year, the now-ageing hippies passed the party’s baton to old swamp creature Walter Mondale, and the result was the largest electoral landslide loss in American history.
Ok, what about 1988 Democrat nominee Mario Cuomo? Remember him? After a raft of polls in mid-1987 showed Cuomo would be a big leader in the nominating battle, party leaders tried to recruit him to get into the race. But Cuomo, knowing the scrutiny that would bring into his shady background, refused to take up the baton.
Well, what about 1988 nominee Gary Hart, who again led all the polls once Cuomo refused to run? No? Hart might actually have prevailed in the race that year had he not dared the media to “follow me around” after allegations arose that he was having an affair. For once, the media actually did its job where a Democrat was concerned, and photos of Hart cavorting on a boat with Donna Rice were soon made public. So, we ended up with Michael Dukakis and another electoral landslide instead.
Then there’s 1992 Democrat nominee Paul Tsongas, or 1992 Democrat nominee Jerry Brown, or 1992 Democrat nominee Bob Kerrey, all of whom were leaders in early polling in the race. But then this guy Bill Clinton played the saxophone on the Johnny Carson Show, and shallow Democrat voters had their man!
In 2000, it was Al Gore all the way as the Democrat voter longed to give the country a third Clinton term. That didn’t happen, either.
Then there’s 2004 Democrat nominee John Edwards. Yet another early polling leader flame-out due to Gary Hart-like circumstances. He was succeeded by 2004 Democrat nominee Howard Dean, who surged into a polling lead late in 2003. But he came up a crapper with a third-place finish in Iowa, and the nomination ended up going to the disastrous John Kerry.
Finally, I give you 2008 Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton, the overwhelming leader in every early poll in the race, and the woman who eventually…flamed completely out after Barack Hussein Obama his own self caught fire.
Democrat voters are fickle, folks. In every cycle, the party’s leaders always try to push a favorite candidate, and that favored candidate is usually rejected. The lone exceptions to this dynamic in modern times have been Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, all loooooooooosers. In 2016, the party’s leaders went so far as to actually rig the primaries in Clinton’s favor, and Obama and his evil minions did everything they could to rig the general election in her favor, and she still lost.
The Fainting Felon’s attempt to saddle the nation with a third Obama term was a miserable failure, and now here is Joe Biden, trying to execute the exact same failed strategy four years later. But Biden’s trying to do it before a party voter base that has been radicalized to the point of insanity, and the primary voting is going to be dominated by the most radicalized among them.
Every nominating battle has its own unique set of dynamics, of course, and the party bosses have set the process up this time to encourage a hung convention at which they will ultimately get to choose the nominee. Maybe that will work out for them, but if it does, history tells us that they will choose a loser.
But back to the point about Joe Biden: History also tells us that the early leader in the polls almost never ends up winning the nomination. I’m not out on a limb at all on that one, and I think I’ll stick to it.
That is all.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
He probably won’t make it, the party needs someone who can pretend not to be a socialist. He will be the front runner, but it’s likely he won’t get the necessary delegates to win. Dems will have a brokered convention, and hand pick their best hope then.
It will allow them to not kill their candidate too early. Less time for Trump to brand their nominee. More time for the dems to Marshall the media hordes and plan their strategy.
Just remember, if the Dems win AMERICA and the world lose.
Because Moochelle will.
This is all Kabuki theater.
She is as preordained as Cankles was.
I still believe it will be Michelle Obama. I believe in about 6 months the dem establishment will come to the realization their field is such a dumpster fire they will convince her to throw her hat into the ring. My conspiracy theory is that is actually the plan and they already know it but they just don’t want to tell it to anyone. She will say she’s doing it for the good of the nation and nobody on that side could beat her. She’d walk away with the nomination.
He’s “historic”. He would be the first pedophile president. “I’m with Pedo Joe!!” Has a nice ring to it, right?
I concur. I just posted the same. I think it’s been the plan all along and they are just waiting for the excuse to come along that the field they have fielded is a bunch of losers.
You could be right. I don’t think the dems plan on winning the presidency. Harris, who is not actually elligble to run, along with Buttplug, will be forced on the dems as part of the conditioning of the electorate to accept ineligible whores and homos as viable candidates. They play the long game.
A lot of people thought the 2016 republican race would result in a brokered convention due to the large number of candidates splitting the party loyalties.
Biden may be brought down by his questionable activities in Ukraine.
Too many downsides. Too old, too unaccomplished, too speech-slurring, too much like that twice loser Hillary.
Someone else in the field or a dark horse at the nominating convention will emerge. Could be Bernie, Warren or Mooch Obama herself.
I’m old enough to remember the 1972 and 1976 elections. Nobody had heard of Watergate before the break-in on June 17 (oh my, the 47th anniversary of the burglary is tomorrow!), and by then McGovern had long replaced Muskie as the front runner. In June 1972, the main controversy was whether McGovern would get all of the California delegates, after winning that state’s primary (he did). Vietnam was still larger in the minds of Americans than Watergate; it wasn’t until after the Vietnam cease-fire was signed in January 1973 that Watergate became a serious problem for Nixon.
As for 1976, Morris Udall and Birch Bayh were certainly in the news as the race began, but neither of them was more popular in the polls than Jimmy Carter, who WAS obscure at the time, as the article says. In fact, I remember it was a joke of sorts that Udall could not win anywhere except in his home state of Arizona; everywhere else, he came in second place at best. The establishment candidates for that year were former Vice President Hubert Humphrey and Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson. But Humphrey chose not to run a third time, and Jackson was a conservative on forced busing and foreign issues, so voters only wanted him in Massachusetts and New York.
1952 was the last time it took more than one ballot for a convention to nominate a candidate from either major party.
#1. He’s white
#2. He’s a man
#3 He’s straight
#4 He’s a straight white man
Michelle. The Obama’s never left DC. They probably gave ‘Hamlet’ Biden the green light to get in while the rest of the children make a muck of things. Then Oprah’s money springs Michelle on everybody right before the California primary — a la Bobby Kennedy. She wins that...
Now if Biden locks things down before then that might not happen. That’s why I have Biden the fave but only 3:1 against the field. Cuz I think the field isn’t set yet.
Soros is funding Stacy Abrams
We will take the white folks land
Maybe! But as long as Hellary is breathing I think she will be maneuvering to run for Prez.
I have to agree, Biden is a long way from getting the nomination. The Democrats are fractured and the party is increasingly being dominated by the socialists and hair on fire crazies. Biden has already had to do major flip flops including embracing the Green NewDeal in order to pander to the crazies. In the end Joe is too establishment and not socialist enough for the kooks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
