Posted on 08/31/2018 7:29:55 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Warning!
If you like thinking Republicans will lose in November this post is not for you; it contains real numbers derived from surveying real people.
If you like being scared by fake news and fake polls, don’t bother to continue reading this post.
There is way too much good news for Republicans here so just cut out the middle man and go over to Democrat underground or Real Fake Politics for your news about how badly Republicans will do in November.
Consider these data points:
The McLaughlin Poll says Donald Trump’s approval is at 48%; with astounding levels of support for Trump for from Blacks 26% and Hispanics 41%!
Why are these levels of support for Trump so important?
In 2016 Blacks voted 8% for Trump and 88% for Clinton.
If this 26% support was in place in 2016 the percentage of Clinton’s overall vote coming from Blacks would fall from 9.7% to 7.5%!
In 2016 Hispanics voted for Trump 28% and were 11% of total voters. They gave Clinton 6.08% of her total vote.
If this level of support was in place in 2016 the percentage of Clinton’s overall vote from Hispanics would fall to 3.75%!
Donald Trump and the media agree on one thing: The 2018 midterm election is all about Trump.
Trump is more than up to the challenge.
If their 26% level of support for Trump turned into Black voting behavior on Election Day, it means a 30% drop in Black support for Democrats.
Blacks would provide just 70% of the votes they have delivered to Democrats in the past.
If the increased level of support for Trump from Hispanics turns into increased conservative voting behavior, it results in Democrats getting just 62% of the Hispanic votes Democrats are depending on.
That is 38% drop!
Cutting Black support for Democrats by 30% and Hispanic support by 38% would provide significantly bad consequences for Democrats in Several states.
In many Congressional districts and many states this puts and end to any hope of Democrat victory in November.
IF you are interested in a particular state, here is the data you need.
Texas: 14% Blacks effectively drops to 9.8%; and its 39% Hispanic voters effectively drops to 27.3%.
Florida: 18% Blacks effectively drops to 12.6%; its 25% Hispanic voters effectively drops to 17.5%.
Georgia: 33% Blacks effectively drops to 23.1%; its 9% Hispanic voters falls to 6.3%.
Maryland: 32% Blacks effectively drops to 23%; its 10% Hispanics falls to 7%.
Pennsylvania: 13% Blacks effectively falls to 9.1%; its 7% Hispanics falls to 4.9%.
Ohio: 14% Blacks effectively falls to 9.3%. Hispanic population is negligible.
Michigan: 15% Blacks effectively falls to 10.5%; its 5% Hispanics falls to 3.5%.
New Jersey: 16% Blacks effectively drops to 11.2%; its 20% Hispanic voters effectively drops to 14%.
Minnesota: 8% Blacks effectively drops to 5.6% its 5% Hispanics drops to 3.5%.
Virginia: 20% Blacks effectively drops to 14%; its 9% Hispanics voters effectively drops to 6.3%.
Missouri: 13% Blacks effectively drops to 9.1%. Its Hispanic population is negligible.
These important states have relatively small Black and Hispanic populations:
Wisconsin 8% goes to 5.6%
West Virginia 5% goes to 3.5%
Why would Blacks and Hispanics answer a call from President Trump to support Republican candidates?
Each group has seen a strong upturn in the quality of their lives.
Each group has come to understand that to continue enjoying the piece of the American pie, they have only dreamed of under Democrats, they need only give up their former voting behavior and vote Republican.
They are just like other Americans in their dreams and aspirations.
Black and Hispanic Americans are joining White Americans in coming to support President Trump’s campaign to elect a Republican Congress.
A new Harris survey of blue collar, mostly White American workers, shows they are bursting with enthusiasm for Trump’s policies; and it is clear they will support his candidates at a rate even higher than they supported him in 2016.
Harris surveyed 1049 self-described blue-collar workers; and their findings are such good news for President Trump and the Republicans it is no wonder the media has smothered it.
In 2016 White men without college degrees (blue collar workers) voted 66% for Trump. The data shows they were 27% of all voters.
If the survey of these American workers quoted below is even near accurate a huge Red Wave is coming.
In 2016 White blue collar workers gave Trump 17.82% of his total votes.
If this level of support was in place in the 2016 it would have been a huge 5.13% increase in total votes for Trump!
The Harris survey reports a HUGE 85% of blue collar workers are satisfied with their lives and attribute that satisfaction to President Trump’s policies.
Again, the numbers tell the story.
Here is the Harris’ accompanying message:
“According to a new study conducted by The Harris Poll and commissioned by Express Employment Professionals, 85 percent of America’s blue-collar workers see their lives heading “in the right direction.”
“Sixty-nine (69) percent also say their local communities are heading in the right direction, and 51 percent say the same about the country as whole.”
“The national survey of 1,049 blue collar workers was conducted online by The Harris Poll between July 9 and 23, 2018, on behalf of Express and offers a detailed, in-depth look at the background and attitudes of those working in blue collar professions.”
Among the various items of bad news for the Democrats is that by 35/31% those who responded to this survey identified as Democrats!
Nevertheless, by 39/36% they felt that Republicans do a better job of helping blue- collar workers!
An astounding 85% say their life is heading in the right direction.
69 percent say their local communities are heading in the right direction.
58 percent say their states are heading in the right direction.
51 percent say the country is heading in the right direction!
Fifty-five (55) percent say they are better off now than they were five years ago [when Barack Obama ran their lives].
20 percent say they are worse off; 26 percent say they are about the same.
61 percent of skilled trade workers say they are better off; 45 percent of general labor workers say they are better off.
The next group of data points exactly ties the increase in optimism these American blue-collar workers feel to the policies of President Trump.
The past year has been good for blue collar workers.
More than two-thirds (68 percent) report a pay increase in the past year.
Of those that saw a pay increase in the last year, 39 percent received a raise of more than 5 percent.
45 percent report receiving more responsibilities in the past year.
35 percent report receiving a promotion in the past year.
The Harris spokesman summed the message of this survey up this way.
“I think there is a tendency for those with college degrees to speculate about how blue- collar workers are doing,” Stoller said.
“But this survey shows that most blue- collar workers feel good about themselves and their jobs. They’re proud of who they are and what they do. As we head into Labor Day weekend, this survey shows that America’s labor force is doing well-and that’s good to see.”
Does anyone really believe these workers will vote to stop this progress and repeal the benefits of Trump policies by voting for Democrat/socialists?
A big Red Wave is coming.
It will be a tough choice for lefties; Economy or party. Everybody knows everything is better and getting mo better because of DJT.
Look, if last night’s rally is anything to go by, the Democrats going hard Left is asking for trouble outside of the coastal regions.
Sobering numbers for the dems, whose constituents like money, jobs, less competition for those jobs, and less crime, none of which dems embrace.
If the GDP sustains itself, and there is little doubt about that, and the jobs-market continues on at this pace...I think he can get 40-percent of black voters in 2020. In states like California or NY....it won’t matter. But I think in states like NJ or Ill...it might be a shocker. Even Detroit might go for Trump.
I now think that Trump will wait until after the mid-terms to really begin the war against Democrat corruption. But I think he will unveil just enough of the data showing treason and corruption to have an influence on the elections.
The Democrats offer nothing but hatred.
Trump is trying to clean up their mess and make the country better.
Voters will vote accordingly.
Republicans, Libertarians, and like-minded pro-American Democrats need to get out on Election Day 2018 and vote as if their lives and livelihoods are depending upon who wins the election, as both lives and livelihoods DO depend upon who wins.
Hmm, anyone remember the old phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Thank you, Mr. Carville.
Good work. Thanks for posting.
Just this morning it was reported that HALF OF AMERICANS WANT TRUMP IMPEACHED!!!!
Yeah. Right. Says I.
This is the absolute nub of the whole "poll validity" issue as far as I am concerned. This would be 110% consistent with how liberals view themselves. They know better. You do not. That's the beginning and the end of the story. Polls are taken and disseminated by college educated people who studied sociology in the 70s and who have developed businesses for themselves. Briefly think on that one thought.
“But this survey shows that most blue- collar workers feel good about themselves and their jobs...... Does anyone really believe these workers will vote to stop this progress and repeal the benefits of Trump policies by voting for Democrat/socialists?
"A big Red Wave is coming."
I am not quite as sure of that as I am that there is NO DAMN blue wave in the cards. Of course I am hoping that the complacency lesson of horrific Ohio 12 will be emblazoned upon Republican foreheads. OHIO 12 WAS AN INCREDIBLY VALUABLE LESSON.
The other thing I would say is that the BEST WAY to sabotage the Dems (which is what we want in case anyone has any doubts) is to drive them into the Socialists' arms whether de facto or via impression and perception as much as possible. Frankly, this is not that hard to do, this is where they want to go. They should be encouraged.
IF the gop-e would nationalize the midterms the numbers would mean more IMHO. But politics are local. Don’t overlook the “firsts” in several states like GA. Abrams could be the first black female guv of GA. That will drive a lot of AAs to vote.
demographics is why gallium is in fl race. He is a sacrificial candidate to get out the democrat base.
And, may he wear a trash basket on his head, again, after the ‘18 November U.S. Midterm Election is done!
Ironically, clinton's victories were both due primarily to Republicans. In 1992, it was George H. W. Bush's famous "read my lips" backtrack and his overall indifference to being reelected (most famously captured by checking his watch during the debate). In 1996, billy jeff rode in on the coattails of Newt Gingrich's Contract with America. Clinton was enough of a politician to realize that Newt was onto something and he shamelessly adopted and modified Newt's ideas and claimed them as his own. He was enough of a political chameleon to pull it off.
Approval ratings do not transform into voter percentages folks..
It is BEYOND naive to think that because Trump got 30% job approval ratings in a poll by blacks last month that 30% of blacks who vote this fall will vote Republican.
Polling someones feelings about the economy, again, doesn’t mean they are going to turn out in an election.
This fall’s election is all about TURNOUT, period.
The Dems are going to turn out and turn out big, and if the republicans don’t motivate and turn out far more than their loyal midterm base, they are likely going to lose the house... a lot of purple and even pink districts will flip if the GOP does not get those outside its typical base motivated and excited and turning out this fall.
Sadly the GOP hasn’t done JACK so far to do this, they continue to operate as if its just another midterm and as long as they get their core base out they win... and that won’t be the case at all, particularly across the upper midwest.
Those non traditional MAGA voters don’t turn out for their congressional elections, the Dems will swamp by turnout many purple and pink districts...
The only prayer I see fo the GOP holding the house is that the DEMS and their insane base so overplay their hands by going ape poop on Kavanaugh, or openly running on impeachment.. that those non traditional voters show up just to spite those nutjobs.... Not because of anything the GOP is doing.
Time will tell how this all plays out.. but if the GOP doesn’t start talking outside its traditional base... they very well may lose the house.
THe Senate the GOP should gain 6+ no matter what.. but without those non traditional MAGA voters engaged and motivated... they will lose the house.
Blacks and latinos are certainly a factor, but the biggest increase in support comes from the obliteration of the never-Trumpers. These are Bush, Cruz, and Rubio supporters who did not know what to make of DJT, but now know that he’s a man of his word.
No one is saying that the Blacks will vote GOP, but it makes very likely that many will stay home and not vote Dem.
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