Posted on 08/17/2018 7:54:06 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
The 36% African American Approval of President Donald Trump means things are not the same this year; and they may never be the same again.
The news that Rasmussen has found 36% of African Americans support Trump is a political earthquake.
This is an increase of 28 points since Election Day and a wound to Democrat hopes for victory in November that is likely to be fatal.
The question now has changed from “If this will change races, especially Senate races, to where will it change Senate race?”
The numbers point to Maryland as a likely location.
According to the latest poll reported by the Washington Post, Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan, is leading his Democrat challenger by 16 points at 52/36%.
For Republican Hogan to be leading by this much in a state that is 2 to 1 registered Democrats is stunning.
Moreover, Hogan’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are, for a Republican in a deep blue state, off the chart.
He enjoys a lopsided Approve/disapprove ratio of 64/31!
His opponent should be killing him. The Democrats nominated Ben Jealous, the former president of the NAACP, who is as liberal as they come.
Nevertheless, Jealous is falling in overall approval and better still, since he won the Democrat nomination his disapprove numbers with Republicans have gone from 21% to 71% meaning Republicans are lining up to stand with Hogan.
Hogan can lead his supporters to backing the Republican Senate candidate.
The governor’s race, however, is not the only important race in Maryland this year.
Democrat Senator Ben Cardin, who was elected in 2012 running with Barack Obama, is running for reelection.
In 2012 Cardin got 56% of the vote, but that was then, and this is now.
Maryland is a “plurality winner takes the office” state; whomever gets the most votes, however small, takes the prize.
Besides Cardin and the Republican candidate, there is a Libertarian and an Independent in the Senate race.
The Independent’s, who voted 16% for their candidate in 2012, could very well see a chance for victory and swing their support to the Republican.
The Republicans in Maryland have nominated Tony Campbell, an African American college professor and former Army Chaplin.
Reverend Campbell’s politics are in close alignment with President Trump on the issues of abortion, immigration, Second Amendment rights, and tax cuts.
Trump who has very long coattails will certainly endorse Campbell.
Even so, this is Maryland. Ordinarily this would be the end of the line for Reverend Campbell, a married father of two children; but this is not an ordinary year, and this is not an ordinary election.
Ben Cardin’s 56 percent winning tally in 2012 doesn’t mean much this year.
The 36% approval Blacks have of President Trump changes all that.
Even if this approval rating does not go up at all and stays in the same margin, this is a big red flag for Cardin and it makes him vulnerable.
He will get no help from Jealous and in fact he will be hard pressed to make up the Black votes he is on his way to losing.
A review of where Jealous’ support is coming from shows that the areas he has strength represent 42% of the population of the state and Hogan’s strength is from the other 58%.
At this point Jealous’ support is coming from White liberal Montgomery County and heavily Black Prince George’s County and Baltimore City.
These new fundamentals make Reverend Campbell’s hill easier to climb than Maryland’s Republicans are used to.
With Jealous hanging around his neck and the new approach to politics America’s Blacks are beginning to take, this race is eminently winnable for Campbell and the Republicans.
Will support for Trump translate to Republican votes?
It is hard to see why not. The very reason Trump is getting this type of approval from Blacks is why Blacks will vote for Trump endorsed candidates.
Trump asked, “What the hell do you have to lose?” and Blacks took a chance on him.
They do not support Trump because of who he is as they supported Barack Obama, they support and continue to support Trump for what he has and can do for them.
The 36% supports Trump’s contention that African Americans are just like everyone else: They want a good job; and better life for themselves and their families; they recognize who is giving these things.
Why would they not vote to support the continuation of the Trump policies they are benefitting from?
African Americans will support Trump’s endorsed candidates because they support Trump’s policies.
The 36% changes everything.
MAGA! Winning never gets too much!
Hogan made numerous anti-Trump statements during 2016.
Also has been fighting cancer so he hasn’t goyt the usua “treatment” from the media.
Hogan seem to be more of a liberal Dem-lite Republican - worthless.
Thanks for the info. All I can say is Hogan has to be slightly better than the democrat.
As for anti-Trump comments, 99% of elected republicans in either made anti-Trump comments or were silent. That includes Ted Cruz, on down to Kasich. GOPe plants Plants like Sessions were supportive to get inside information on Trump campaign, and obtained the top job in DOJ to let the phony Russia investigation go ahead full speed.
I do find it curious how Hogan’s ads brag about improvements in Maryland’s economy, without ever mentioning the tax cuts and regulation decreases that are entirely due to President Trump. Hogan has to work with a veto-proof state legislature but he doesn’t need to be so anti-Trump.
I’m listening to a conservative Baltimore talk radio host. All these electoral purity morons are calling in saying they are voting for Jealous as an anti-vote against Hogan.
Hogan is a center right never Trumper, but he’s the best this liberal wasteland is ever going to see.
Cardin is going to run his warmed over “My Friend Ben” TV ads and the low information voter will slavishly fill in the box for him cause he’s their friend.
Thank you for your post as an informed local from MD.
Really??
Reverend Campbell’s politics are in close alignment with President Trump on the issues of abortion, immigration, Second Amendment rights, and tax cuts.
Beats the hell out of a Chucky Schumer butt KISSER!
Hogan will win in November with ease. He is at best a moderate. My wife and her family are Dems and they fully support him, mostly because of his stances and actions within the state. I’m personally not a fan, but he is better than having a full blown Dem as Governor.
Cardin will probably keep his seat. While Trump is enjoying an increase in support from Blacks, the translation for a Republican in MD’s heavily saturated Democrat Areas (I-95 Corridor) to get that support is not likely to happen, even if supported by Hogan.
The numbers say Campbell has a very nice chance to win in a four way race that rewards the higest vote getter. Those who think people who support Hogan will say No to Campbell have the 36% to deal with.
And as far as Hogan being anti Trump so were Martha Roby (I’m not voting for Trump) and Dan Donovan who even voted for sanctuary cities and Trump endorsed them because he looks past personal attacks for the good of his agenda.
Trump will endorse Hogan and Campbell and they will both stand on the stage with him. Take that to the bank.
The numbers may look good. I just wouldn’t put a lot of hope in the Support for Trump or Hogan to translate to votes for Campbell.
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