Posted on 08/14/2018 6:40:53 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
I stand by my prediction of 11 Republican pickups in the Senate.
The Senate Seats now held by Democrats Tina Smith of Minnesota and Bob Menendez of New Jersey are quickly slipping away from both of them.
In late spring the first signs that voters in New Jersey had had enough of crooked Democrats appeared when a survey with bizarre numbers was released. The poll showed Menendez ahead just 28/24 with an astounding 46% undecided.
This said lots of things about the mood of the voters in New Jersey and none of them were good for Menendez.
As a two-term incumbent from a very blue state he should not be having any trouble in his reelection; but he is.
The Republican in the race, Bob Hugin is a self-financed very aggressive candidate who is saying all the right things to win a statewide race in New Jersey.
The undecided voters have either broken for him 18/14 to make a real race of this election at 42/42 or have stopped talking to pollsters.
Neither of these explanations is good for Menendez.
Given that Menendez is the latest crooked New Jersey Democrat to walk away from his crimes, he is clearly not being given the usual pass from voters.
As a deep blue state two term Democrat incumbent mired at 42% support in mid-August, Menendez is mortally wounded and will lose.
In Minnesota the script is similar. The Democrat is the unelected holder of a U S Senate seat she was gifted with by a Democrat establishment that is losing its grip on her state.
Senator Tina Smith was given the seat vacated by the lecherous Al Franken, whom many Minnesotans remember stole his seat from Republican Norm Coleman by endless recounts taking about six months to settle.
It ended when the Democrats finally “found” enough votes in the trunk of an old Chevy to claim victory and run.
As expected, in the first poll of this race Smith was way ahead at 49/35 over her Republican challenger Karin Housley.
Nevertheless, it is the follow up poll that makes this a probable loss for Smith.
The most recent survey from a few days ago shows Housley has closed up and pulled down Smith.
The new poll shows Smith leading 32/28 with an astounding 41% undecided.
These polls were taken just two weeks apart. The very large percentage of “undecided” voters is a significantly good sign for that Housley.
By mid-August a Democrat incumbent, even if appointed, should be in control in Minnesota which has voted Republican on only rare occasions in the last 70 years.
Smith’s problem is that she is “just another Democrat,” and as I have pointed out, this is not going to be a good year for “just another Democrat[s].”
She represents everything Americans detest about Democrats.
In 2016 Donald Trump lost Minnesota by 1.8% in a four-way race that included not only the eventual winner Hillary Clinton, but Gary Johnson the Libertarian and Evan McMullin the sabatour sent out by Mitt Romney to try to destroy Trump.
Together Johnson and McMullin pulled down 5.8% of the vote so it is not a stretch to believe that had either one not been in the race Trump would have won.
The underpinnings of Smith’s defeat are clear.
For a state that came very close to voting for Trump, Smith has made some very seriously bad “just another Democrat” votes.
She voted against the Trump Tax cuts; against immigration reform, and against confirming Judge Neil Gorsuch.
She voted to continue sanctuary cities; and to support continuing Obamacare.
There are already two Minnesota Congressional Districts now held by Democrats that even the New York Times has reluctantly admitted will flip to Republican control.
Both were won by Trump by 15 points. Republican enthusiasm for “getting over the top this time” is very high.
The combination of Catholics, who voted 52/45 for Trump, and Evangelicals who voted nearly 80/20 for Trump, will represent 41% of the electorate.
Smith’s vote against Gorsuch combined with her coming vote against Kavananugh will spell trouble for her.
Both groups want Judge Kavanaugh confirmed and are willing to defeat Smith to insure a future Republican controlled Senate that will confirm pro-life judges.
More than this, voting against Trump’s economic plans and for sanctuary cities will hang like a millstone around Smith’s neck.
Tina Smith will lose.
Thanks for the optimistic post.
won’t Sen Klobuchar reelection help Smith’s election?
“In late spring the first signs that voters in New Jersey had had enough of crooked Democrats...”
Crooked democrats (I repeat myself) never have enough of other crooked democrats.
We haven’t heard much chatter recently from the Democrats and media about taking back the Senate.
There’s talk of them taking the House but not the Senate.
The Democrats are defending about 25 Senate seats, and of those, about 8 or 10 are thought to be vulnerable.
The Republicans are defending only about 10, of which only 1 or 2 seem at risk.
Do the math, and with the Senate currently 51-49 in Republican hands, the Democrats would have to run the table to have a chance of taking back the Senate. It seems unlikely they will retain every single one of their vulnerable Senate seats, and pick off 2 or more GOP seats.
Minnesota - maybe, NJ no way
Boss, Boss the wave, the wave. Run like Trump and you will win. Run like just another Democrat whether socialist or RINO you lose. Minnesota May control the fate of the House and the Senate. Who would have thought?
NJ replaced corrupt Bob Toricelli last minute. Could happen again if they want to retain power.
Don't forget MA, Geoff Deihl "The Real Deihl" against Liz Warren.
She stepped in it this past weekend with what some perceive as Anti-Cop remarks.
It is not going un-noticed amongst the L.E. community in MA and Police Chiefs have spoken out about it.
Listen to hrs 1 and 2 with an interview with Candidate Deihl on Jeff Kuhner's show ( WRKO 680 am 12 to 3 pm est, Boston )
See the links below, I have been saying 10 to 13 in the Senate if PDJT runs the table, the MA win would take it to 12 if I dovetail of your observations etc....
Hr No. 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCO1jsXKg6w
Hr No. 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLHNZvYyq4s
As a caller late in the 1st hr noted on Jeff's show, her comments may have been her "Deporable Moment", from his lips to G-d's Ears...
what would be neat would be a nine seat pick up by the republicans in the senate.
too bad that doesn’t look to be in the cards
New Jersey, unfortunately, will stay with Menendez. We “red-state NJ” people have two huge obstacles: we’re greatly outnumbered, and we keep getting “Republican” candidates like Hugin forced on us. Many of us will not vote for faux Republicans any more — and even if we did, we are still outnumbered by leftists, “gimme free stuff” voters, and all of the illegal and fraudulent votes.
Thanks for the positive news. Hoping the MSM doesn’t pick it up so it will be a surprise election night.
I am not quite as optimistic so my number is 3-4 pickups.
I do hope you are correct though.
Make sure you say , to make this happen every Republican has to get out and vote
Garden Staters can’t get enough liberalism. No amount is too much for them.
Operation “Minnesota Chaos” will commence as soon as I leave work.
A pure candidate is a fantasy. I would rather have half of something, then zero of something.
Those like to get up each morning and look for something to be afraid of can always find something, but Cruz losing to the fake Mexican is just silly.
Growing... and growing... as people open their eyes ....
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