Posted on 08/06/2018 6:57:22 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
At this point the so called “polls” are virtually useless. They under poll Republicans and over poll Democrats. They are produced by the same liars who told us Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning.
The only ones that have any meaning are the ones that show Republicans leading. This is not a support of the “home team”; but rather a recognition that the polls are just as skewed left now as they were in 2016.
Any lead for a Republican is reported only when a poll is forced to report it which really means he/she is leading by substantially more.
We will not be able to cite polls for at least 6 weeks when the campaigns will have heated up to full speed.
Consequently, the surest way to predict what will happen in elections for Senate is to look at fundamentals in a particular state.
Last week President Donald Trump went into Pennsylvania, a state we won in 2016, to campaign with and for Republican Senate nominee Congressman Lou Barletta.
As usual, the event was a smash hit with fake news outlets falling into Trump’s traps and people cheering wildly for him and Barletta.
At this point Barletta’s only problem is name recognition. Trump’s rally went a long way toward fixing that problem. People in Pennsylvania now know who to vote for to get rid of “Sleeping Bob” Casey the Democrat.
The success of Donald Trump’s economic initiatives, and voter trends drawn from 2016 exit polls show a clear advantage for Barletta.
The first advantage is that Pennsylvania is going back to work. The Keystone State is 5th in the nation in jobs created year to year since June 2017.
The latest unemployment figures for Pennsylvania show it was among the top ten in jobs recovery shaving .2% off its unemployment rolls.
Nevertheless, voters know there is still more to be done in bring Pennsylvania to a par with the rest of the nation.
Voters know Democrat Bob Casey, who voted against Trump’s Tax Cuts and wants to reverse them, is not the answer to getting full employment in their state.
The seeds of Barletta’s victory were sown in 2016 and an examination of which Pennsylvanians voted and how they voted proves this.
Perhaps the most intriguing voter data is from the African American numbers.
The signs of a coming Trump victory were there a week before the election when two separate surveys showed African Americans intended to vote for Trump at a rate of 16% and 20% respectively.
In the final count it was just 8%, but the numbers turned out to be indicative of trouble for Democrat Hillary Clinton anyway, The percentage of the overall vote from African Americans fell to just 10%.
That was 2% less than the national average and 3% less than the percentage of the 2012 electorate represented by African American voters.
Today we see that the percentage of African Americans who approve of Trump ranges anywhere from 16% to 29% depending on the survey.
While even the lower number would be a crushing blow to Casey, combined with a recent Survey Monkey finding that only 53% of African Americans self-Identify as Democrats it is a gut punch.
Remember Barack Obama got an average of 94% of the Black vote in his elections with identical 13% of the electorate being Black.
Hillary Clinton’s percentages of the Black vote fell to 89% with 12% of the electorate being Black.
A recent survey of 4636 Registered African American voters found 73% said they would vote Democrat with 11% saying they “don’t know or refused to say.”
While not as bad as the findings in other surveys, those are devastating numbers for Casey and other Senate Democrats trying to be reelected.
If only those African American Pennsylvanians who self-identify as Democrats voted for Casey that would mean Blacks who voted 92% Democrat in 2016 would be barely more than half of what they were just two years ago.
As we examine the age ladder starting from the youngest voters, things get really bad for Casey.
A recent poll published by The Atlantic magazine, no friend of a free America, showed just 28% of young voters were certain to vote this year.
These voters were 16% of Pennsylvania’s 2016 voters and they voted 53% for Hillary Clinton.
By contrast 74% of seniors who made up a combined 51% of 2016 voters in Pennsylvania, said they were certain to vote. They voted 53% for Trump.
White voters were 81% of those who voted in Pennsylvania in 2016 and they voted for Trump 56/40.
A recent IBD/TIPP Poll showed the National Mood to be brightening. Proprietary Quality of Life Index rose 7% for the month of July to 64.2. This is the highest ever! Closest to this number was 63.1 set in 2004.
Where does the necessary support for a Casey reelection come from?
You tell me.
“Where does the necessary support for a Casey reelection come from?
Decades of the Casey name. Love him to lose.
Yes. This guy got his position by his name, not by any accomplishment. Can’t WAIT to see him gone, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
I see Casey commercials all the time. Can’t remember seeing any Barletta, maybe I did, but not enough to imprint in my mind.
You begin by saying, “At this point the so called “polls” are virtually useless. They under poll Republicans and over poll Democrats. They are produced by the same liars who told us Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning” and then proceed to quote poll after poll to support your position.
They aren’t skewed on purpose. Most patriots will simply tell a pollster that they don’t wish to participate in “fake news” or out-right lie to them and boost the neo-Stalinist in the race.
You must live in Western PA. Casey is not even going to bother with the T. He will get support in Philly and the burbs. Win the west. This is what Trump did. I get to Western PA and see the ads for Casey.....and Wolf. Nothing on the eastern side yet. The Pittsburgh folks are not paying attention to what goes on in WB-S so my best is Trump will be in Pittsburgh before too long. This reaches into northern WV and eastern OH.
It is just a name. Because to hear him speak you realize he’s an idiot.
He should have cooked up a version of the Gene Autry song "Rosetta", substituting "Barletta" among other things in the lyrics.
Not even close.
“You begin by saying, “At this point the so called “polls” are virtually useless. They under poll Republicans and over poll Democrats. They are produced by the same liars who told us Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning” and then proceed to quote poll after poll to support your position. You just got busted for not reading the piece. Try reading beyond the first paragraph then come back and criticize it.
So you’re saying you did not quote an IDP/TPP poll, an Atlantic magazine poll, and an unnamed poll of 4636 Registered African American voters? Must be confusing this with one of your other vanity posts. My bad.
4 million Democrats vs 3.2 million Republicans vs 1.2 million Other Parties.
Trump overcame the Democrat high registration numbers and I pray Barletta will do the same.
Lets try these two “polls” using the principle I laid out. If they COULD report worse numbers they would and the numbers they DO report are almost always worse for Republicans than they really are. Does that help you understand or will you keep searching for something to be afraid of in spite of the facts?
I know Lou Barletta. He is an incomparable patriot, and immigration warrior. He would make a terrific president one day.
If there is one thing in common that Barletta has with Trump, it’s the opposition of the elitist establishment Republicans in Pennsylvania.
They are undermining his campaign with great harm and are not working to get out the vote for Barletta.
Let’s hope they get the same result for their opposition that Trump gave them.
If people are paying attention to how Bob Casey voted in the Senate, then Lou Barletta will win. Trouble is, I don’t think a lot of people follow the voting close enough. I’ve spent the last year and a half watching the U.S. Senate floor Webcast. After that, I wouldn’t vote for a democrat for a long time until they change back to normal.
the primary purpose of President Trump’s live rallies is to obtain free, positive, live, unedited national television exposure via FNC for GOP candidates who otherwise would have zero chance at such national media exposure.
President Trump is making the best use of the Presidential bully pulpit of any President in U.S. history by investing his personal popularity and appeal into assuring that his GOP compatriots continue to hold both Houses of Congress.
ONLY the President has such a bully pulpit and only THIS President has this amount of television appeal; anyone else putting on such rallies would be very unlikely to garner such broad television coverage because low ratings would not justify pre-empting that amount of regular programming, thus rendering such events as purely local matters of no particular significance ...
“I see Casey commercials all the time. Can’t remember seeing any Barletta”
a. this is WAY too early for TV commercials to matter ... generally people pay attention to elections just a few weeks before election time ...
b. TV commercials do not have the impact that they once did ...
Trump’s campaign used both of these principles greatly to his advantage during his winning campaign ...
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