Posted on 05/19/2017 6:18:20 PM PDT by Lorianne
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles”. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.
It is a twin “death spiral” for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time.
(Excerpt) Read more at financialpost.com ...
These futurist predictions are nothing but the expression of their desires.
This article is BULL.
I have a college education, and I don’t believe it!
LOL!
Good Lord Willing and the Creeks don’t rise, I’ll still be driving my ‘65 GTO in 2025!
Yeah right. And Thanksgiving is on Monday this year ....
The only thing I saw that I believe: Cities will ban human driven cars. Driverless vehicles cannot cope with the random errors and casual violations of traffic laws that human drivers produce constantly, so to the clueless libtards that run the cities the obvious solution will be to ban human drivers. Better put that red barchetta away in the barn now.
BOOL SHEET
Please tell me where the raw materials will come from for the batteries. Consumption of lithium is due to outstrip the worlds known supplies in a few short years. Show me facts, not just hopeful feelings.
That professor owes me a lot of money for stealing what I’ve been saying for at least the last 5 years. BTW, I didn’t need to conduct a study in order to draw the conclusions which the professor has stolen.
The professor does go quite astray by claiming that the oil industry will fade after the gas-powered cars stop selling.
I predict that the autonomous vehicles will become very popular, but that’s not to say that they have to be electric, since autonomous will work exactly the same with with regular fuel cars.
I have also predicted that governments everywhere will have to come up with alternative funding sources, since oil pays a very large portion of government programs.
Dealerships will disappear, eventually, and what will be left is fleet operators of the available vehicles which will be made available to consumers with ride-hailing services, and the fleet operators will be the same as the car-makers, since that would become their bread-and-butter after they have made themselves obsolete by producing self-driving cars that people won’t need to own anymore.
BTW, the autonomous vehicle makers will still be the same as the regular fuel vehicle makers, since, they’re the ones best positioned to incorporate autonomous technology into their vehicles. Companies such as Google and Apple and other non-automaker companies, will simply be developing and improving the autonomous driving technology, but they won’t be making the vehicles, unless they were to buy an automaker or merge with one.
I wrote about how the technology will be very devastating to a lot of industries and government, while also making life a lot easier and a lot less costly. With less economic activity as a result of autonomous vehicles, there will also be a lot less people working and fewer companies, and a lot less people and companies to support the taxation required by governments the world over, which will cause a lot of leaders internationally to “rethinK” the “game-changing” and disruptive technology.
Maybe. But I do know quite a bit about battery technology and unless there is some fancy fantastic new battery technology that no one ever heard of the chances of this happening are exactly zero. We couldn’t make that many batteries. And current new cars are going to last at least 10 years. Many go 200000 miles with little repair need.
Well then I won’t drive into the city to spend my money any more. I can get what I need in the burbs or online.
Bull crap. What are they going to use to generate the electricity to charge their batteries with? Rainbows and unicorn farts?
And those electric cars are going to be FLYING CARS too!
That may be the link that I was missing.
Yeah, but we were also supposed to have heteronormative marriages with children as the social norm by now too.
The Professor has O.D’d on BS sandwiches.
There will be at least one “Brilliant Red Barchetta from a better managed time.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9Q05UyIOX4
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