Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Poll Analysis: With Virginia now tied, Trump is rapidly closing battleground gap
Political Ref ^ | 9/3/16 | Political Ref

Posted on 09/03/2016 6:02:11 PM PDT by TheRef

The shift in Virgina seems rather stunning. Only a few days ago, most pundits, including conservative ones, had written the state off. With the last two polls showing a virtual tie, that analysis is out the window. Pennsylvania is also closing, but still sits at a 6.0 point margin for Hillary, so for now, it will remain out of the index.

This shift is significant because Trump can pull into the lead just by bringing Republicans into his tent. He has not been achieving the ninety percent level of Republican support that a GOP candidate typically receives. He has been closer to seventy-five percent. If he can just get a little closer to ninety percent support, he should claim these states that often go GOP. Some of the GOP will naturally come home as we approach election day.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: battleground; pa; pennsylvania; polls; president; trump; va; virginia
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-51 next last
To: COBOL2Java

Have to say, Levine doesn’t seem very bright for someone who likes to think of himself as some sort of Constitutional scholar.


21 posted on 09/03/2016 6:48:02 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: pieceofthepuzzle

Levine = Levin.


22 posted on 09/03/2016 6:48:33 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Alberta's Child

“but you’re living in a state that Barack Hussein Obama won handily — twice.”

Obama won the state twice, but not what you would call handily. He won with the same type of margins that he got in OH both years. And just like everyone of the 12 battleground states, he lost quite a bit of margin between 2008 and 2012.

Trump has a better chance of taking VA than Cruz would have had because Trump never said he would eliminate half of the Federal government agencies. In spite of the increase in Federal workers, VA is still there for the taking for the GOP.


23 posted on 09/03/2016 7:01:24 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

VA has gone GOP 8 of the last ten elections, with Obama winning the last 2. The fact that they never went for Bill Clinton in either 1992 and 1996 should say something.


24 posted on 09/03/2016 7:04:45 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Lurkinanloomin

That’s good to hear. I’ve been a huge fan for years and recommended him to many in his beloved Loudoun County VA. Lately, I haven’t been able to listen. Every couple days, I check in to see what tack he’s on. Unfortunately, I’m changing the channel more often than not.


25 posted on 09/03/2016 7:05:20 PM PDT by cnsmom (csmom)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: MaxistheBest
The key in Va is the blue collar turn out in western & rural central Va. Past GOP candidates have done very little to appeal to these people, in fact if anything these past GOP’ers have ignored their needs and/or undermined their interests.
26 posted on 09/03/2016 7:07:56 PM PDT by Reily
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Reily

“these past GOP’ers have ignored their needs and/or undermined their interests.”

I think the story is the same in other battleground states as well. The good news is their weakness is Trump’s strenght


27 posted on 09/03/2016 7:11:24 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

Finally,just saw the first Trump campaign ad here in Virginia


28 posted on 09/03/2016 7:15:04 PM PDT by sportscaster ("LET'S ROLL")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cobra64

I’m not! :-D


29 posted on 09/03/2016 7:20:03 PM PDT by TEXOKIE (We must surrender only to our Holy God and never to the evil that has befallen us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

Virginia has hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens, and thanks to the SEIU and the Democrats, they vote.

Voter fraud in Virginia is reaching Chicago levels.


30 posted on 09/03/2016 7:21:00 PM PDT by oldbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

TTTT!


31 posted on 09/03/2016 7:50:59 PM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Reily

I can guarantee there will be a record turn-out in the southwestern part of the state, which is coal country. Hillary’s vow to put miners and coal companies out of business is all the motivation they need to show up.

One interesting dynamic is the armed forces vote in Virginia. Ten percent of Virginians are vets; the state ranks in the top three in terms of active-duty military population, and it has the largest number of veterans under the age of 40. Unfortunately, the Old Dominion’s tax laws persuade a lot of active duty to maintain their residency in states without an income tax like Texas or Florida.

But Trump can make a successful appeal to the younger veterans voting bloc, many of whom are entrepreneurs and want a more business-friendly environment at the state and federal level. And many of these same voters—along with active-duty personnel registered to vote in VA—are deeply concerned about military cuts and its impact on readiness.

Trump needs to spend more in the state and get his ground game organized. I live in the northern reaches of the 2nd Congressional District, which is normally an R+6 region. At least in my area, there are just a handful of Trump signs and there have been no ad buys in the Norfolk market. Trump has to do this on his own, because the GOP-E (which runs the party in VA) is doing virtually nothing to help him.


32 posted on 09/03/2016 7:56:54 PM PDT by ExNewsExSpook
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

Great question. In theory, they do.


33 posted on 09/03/2016 8:12:03 PM PDT by TheRef
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: COBOL2Java

Is he NeverTrump now? I thought he was still in the critic category, but not NeverTrump. I don’t listen so I don’t know.


34 posted on 09/03/2016 8:12:03 PM PDT by TheRef
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: cnsmom

First time I had listened in many months, Jim Robinson said he was listening and he was sounding like his old self, so I tuned in to our late delay here, 9:00-12:00 EDT
I did not hear the whole show, but I didn’t hear him tearing down Trump, which is what the show had largely become.


35 posted on 09/03/2016 8:16:10 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam , Know Peace)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

Better let Sabato know... The REAL numbers are going to appear and the #NeverTrump and Globalists are NOT going to be comfortable!


36 posted on 09/03/2016 8:35:18 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

This is actually important in a different direction. With a movement TOWARD Trump, people in support of him may begin to shed their skins and be “silent” supporters and become even more vocal and willing in a phone interview to support him. So many are “silent” Trumpsters, and if THEY replied to pollsters as “Yeah” instead of “Maybe”, this would make a big difference.


37 posted on 09/03/2016 8:41:23 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: pieceofthepuzzle

What drives me nuts about the NeverTrumpers is their absolute disregard of the existential threat we face from the socialists! Glenn Beck compares this to Dunkirk, but that is a horrible comparison. They didn’t retreat to avoid a fight, but fight elsewhere, where they were needed more. The NeverTrumpers are surrendering at the peak of the battle and aiding the opposition with potent talking points. It’s not just the votes they can sway, but much more than that, they give Hillary a hammer to bash Trump with that the low-information voters will be persuaded by. They don’t understand why the NeverTrumpers resist, their obsession with globalization and bruised egos, just that they are Republicans resisting.


38 posted on 09/03/2016 8:44:04 PM PDT by TheRef
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: MHT

Sabato is showing his bias this time around. His crystal ball on Thursday was wrong, made it sound nearly impossible for Trump to win. Bet he’s singing a different tune next week. Newt hit him pretty good over that the next night. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kalFh1E2rU


39 posted on 09/03/2016 8:44:22 PM PDT by TheRef
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: TheRef

Been wondering about Sabato as he acknowledges no underlying unreported statistic for the “never voted before” category. From what I see in rural Missouri, there is a real voting class of never-voted-before-because-it-wasn’t-worth-it out there and no one knows their cell (their only source of communication) numbers.


40 posted on 09/03/2016 8:56:24 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-51 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson