Posted on 05/05/2016 11:41:16 AM PDT by Peter ODonnell
This sudden and orchestrated list of events -- Cruz drops out, Kasich drops out, Romney not to attend GOP Convention, Bush family not to attend -- and others beyond -- suggests to this observer that the other shoe is about to drop.
We must be careful at Free Republic to realize that a prevailing mood here is not necessarily an indication of a strong prevailing mood elsewhere in American political culture. It might be at best what one third of one half are thinking, in other words, what one-sixth of the voters accept to be orthodox self-evident truth.
The fact that you and I believe something does not make it true or even feasible that many of the other five-sixths of the political spectrum accept or believe it.
So it would not surprise me, and it should not surprise you, if the following scenario or something like it unfolds.
First, the Republican Party will announce that the Cleveland convention is no longer happening. They will say that they accept the nomination of Donald Trump to run as president is inevitable but that he cannot have the endorsement of the Republican Party. That would no doubt lead to numerous large legal battles fought mainly at the state level. But as a political fait accompli, if the party mechanism does not move into the convention centre, then it is basically de facto a Donald Trump Independent for President convention with whatever supporters of his decide to show up. What they do and decide will then determine how the Trump campaign proceeds although if any wind of this reaches the Trump forces before mid- to late May, clearly there are legal problems they need to investigate on a number of levels.
One of those will be, how does Donald Trump get his name on ballots? How is he to be styled on the ballots?
Meanwhile, I would expect the Republican Party to announce a new and different convention location, wherein delegates appointed by a process that they fully control would choose a nominee. That person would then go onto the ballot as the Republican depending on the outcome of any legal challenges brought by Donald Trump.
One really has to wonder if, confronted with this situation, Donald Trump would want to go before the voters as a Republican anyway.
This process would create more or less the same dynamics as the 1992 election. There would be a maverick iconoclast (like Perot), a relatively unpopular Republican establishment candidate, and a Clinton. But of course, not the charismatic and seductive one, but the old one with baggage and huge question marks (in the 20-20 hindsight that we all have, of course, the first one had those same attributes, except not so many people knew).
So would that be a cakewalk for Hillary Clinton? Probably not. Both of her opponents would easily be able to rebut her assertions that the Republican process was anti-democratic. Bernie Sanders proves that point, more people are actually voting for him than for Hillary in most states so far. But he has no path to the nomination either.
Do you folks think this could happen? I think the tells are pretty obvious. Or will the party go through the motions of lukewarm support but spring a third option after the convention on the grounds that Trump is trailing badly in the polls? (if that happens)
Of course, one thing would forestall all of this -- Ted Cruz as running mate. There's no way the GOP would roll the dice against 70% of the primary voters, they might try it against 45%.
This is just my opinion. I have no insider knowledge.
(cue the History Channel bad hair pictures)
Trump needs Ohio. Trump/Kasich?
That’s what I’m thinking. The elite party manipulators should be THANKFUL that they have the opportunity to get kicked out of power via the ballot box. Throughout history, the results aren’t typically as advantageous to those who stomp on the people they’re supposed to lead.
I don’t think that will happen. a party split would be a down ballot disaster for Repubs running for election and re-election.
There are too many elected Repubs with too much to lose in too many states for them to go for something like that.
Most of these #neverTrump drama queens are journalists, lobbyists and campaign consultants. Except for Sasse, none of them is elected, and none are running for re-election in 2016.
I’m more worried about traitorous RINOs that pretend to support, while they are really Democrat Kim Philby’s.
I recall Trump standing with Reince Priebus at the start of this circus with Trump saying he would accept the Republican rules as long as he were treated fairly, to which Priebus agreed.
If Priebus and the Republican Party have any shred of honor and decency which they may, i.e., “may” have once had, then they will honor that pledge made to Trump.
If they do not, then I will vote for Trump regardless, and the Republican Party can go to hell forever AFAIC.
Rhinos are saying they are not attending convention.
There has never been a reason to trust them, Rinse Prebus as well.
Any 3rd party will simply be a person paid to run to draw enough votes away from Trump to allow Hitlary to win.
Nuts.
I don't. If it did, it would be a spectacular Hitlerian Gotterdamerung gesture of burning up their party which would never rise from the ashes.
Those thousands of enthusiastic people showing up at Trump rallies were not all Freepers...
-JT
All these Establishment people not attending the convention. ..hope they’re not planning a false flag for us little people.
this jumps right past tin foil hat to tin foil bodysuit
“First Trump makes everyone else drop out, and then Trump drops out!!!”
I don’t think that any candidate has droppd out. They suspended their campaigns.I guess they could be activated again.
Here ya go, Pete. Don't eat them all at one time, now...
Just some quick comments, Cleveland would still have a convention and much of the business to be expected from that in my scenario, just no Republican Party establishment. I can’t see anyone complaining about that.
Some readers mistakenly think I support this outcome. Wrong, I am predicting this outcome. I am a weather forecaster and I certainly don’t want it to rain all day Saturday any more than you do.
I chose words carelessly when I said “you and I may believe etc” what that should say is “you and I may be convinced but that does not mean five sixths of our fellow citizens are convinced.” That in any case is the logic implied.
This is not some backdoor Cruz support thread. I am just stating another political analysis here, that while the party might risk going against the Trump forces, they would definitely be courting oblivion by going against the combined Trump and Cruz support (don’t forget that Trump’s vote in primaries is more than a share of GOP members due to independent and crossover support).
So I don’t know if any of those points would make my theory more sustainable or not. Bottom line is, we’ll know if I am right or wrong by mid-June at latest. I may turn out to be partially right if the GOP sort of goes through the motions in Cleveland but then pops out a candidate in August. That would amount to the same thing.
Three parties further assures Hillary’s election and the finishing of the destruction started by the negro community organizer from Chicago. Normal political methods will no longer save our Republic.
“Wrong—the GOP will rally behind Trump.”
I agree. They would be incredibly stupid and self-destructive to do anything different.
Hey,Petey,the Saudi’s called- your check is ready!
SMH...
You must think the GOPe are completely brain dead and comatose...
Not have a convention ? LOL...
The RULES COMMITTEE MEETS and they up the required delegate count to 1500.
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