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Guess What Happened The Last Time Junk Bonds Started Crashing Like This? Hint: Think 2008
TEC ^ | 12/12/2015 | Michael Snyder

Posted on 12/14/2015 8:12:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind

The extreme carnage that we are witnessing in the junk bond market right now is one of the clearest signals yet that a major U.S. stock market crash is imminent. For those that are not familiar with “junk bonds”, please don’t get put off by the name. They aren’t really “junk”. They simply have a higher risk and thus a higher return than other bonds of the same type. And yesterday, I explained why I watch them so closely. If stocks are going to crash, you would expect to see a junk bond crash first. This happened in 2008, and it is happening again right now. On Monday, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK crashed through the psychologically important 35.00 barrier for the very first time since the last financial crisis. On Tuesday, high yield bonds had their worst day in three months, and JNK plummeted all the way down to 34.44. When I saw this I was absolutely stunned. This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I have been anticipating that we would soon witness.

Normally, stocks and junk bonds track one another very closely, but just like before the 2008 crash, they have become decoupled in recent months. Anyone that even has an elementary understanding of the financial world knows that this cannot continue indefinitely. And when they start converging once again, the movement could be quite violent.

When I chose to use the word “carnage” to open this article, I was not exaggerating what is going on in the junk bond market one bit. On Tuesday evening, Jeffrey Gundlach used the exact same word to describe what is happening…

Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed investor who runs DoubleLine Capital, said on a webcast on Tuesday that the junk bond market has come under severe selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

We are looking at real carnage in the junk bond market,” Gundlach said. Gundlach also said it was too early to buy high-yield junk bonds and energy debt securities. “I don’t like things when they go down every single day.”

Sometimes a chart can be extremely helpful in understanding what is going on. The following chart was posted by Zero Hedge on Tuesday, and it shows that yields on the riskiest junk bonds are heading into the stratosphere…

High Yield Debt - from Zero Hedge

And for those that are not familiar, it is important to note that when yields go up, bond prices go down. So the chart above is what a “crash” looks like.

Another “leading indicator” that I watch is the behavior of Dow Transports.

Dow Transports started crashing before the Dow Jones Industrial Average did back in August, and now it is happening again

Dow Transports are in reverse. Down over 3% today, the biggest drop since the Black Monday collapse, Trannies are now below the lows of the Bullard bounce from October 2014 and down a shocking 16% in 2015. This would be the first four-quarters-in-a-row drop in Transports since 1994 and the worst year since 2008…

In addition, we are also seeing trouble signs erupt at major financial institutions just like we did during the run up to the 2008 crash. For example, I have been concerned about Morgan Stanley for quite a while, and on Tuesday we learned that they have just laid off more than a thousand workers

Struggling Morgan Stanley slashed 1,200 jobs around the world in recent days, a person familiar with the matter told CNNMoney.

The cuts were broad-based and eliminated 25% of the positions within the fixed income and commodities businesses, the person said. Those divisions are grappling with tumbling trading revenue and shrinking fees.

Morgan Stanley also eliminated about 730 back-office jobs like human-resources and IT positions.

Virtually all of the things that we would expect to see just prior to a 2008-style stock market crash are happening right now.

If just two or three leading indicators were flashing red, we could have a really good debate about what they might mean.

But the fact that virtually all of the numbers are screaming a warning at us should mean that the debate is over. Anyone with an open mind should be able to very clearly see what is coming next.

Very quickly, let me give you just 10 signs that indicate that we are right on the precipice of a major recession and a very substantial financial downturn…

1. Global GDP growth has gone negative for the first time since 2009.

2. Corporate earnings growth has turned negative.

3. S&P 500 net profit margins are steeply declining. According to Tony Sagami, “since 1973, there has been only one 60 bps decline in S&P 500 net profit margin that didn’t lead to a recession.”

4. In October, U.S. imports of goods declined by 6.6 percent on a year over year basis.

5. In October, U.S. exports of goods declined by 10.4 percent on a year over year basis.

6. U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last recession.

7. Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

8. Credit card numbers that were recently released show that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession.

9. The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded.

10. Of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the entire world, 47 of them (slightly more than half) have already plunged at least 10 percent year to date.

Just like in 2008, other global financial markets are imploding ahead of a U.S. collapse.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 162 points, but we are still within 1000 points of the market peak that was set earlier this year. We are still in far better shape than most of the rest of the world, but that will soon change.

I can’t think of a single leading indicator that is telling us that everything is going to be okay. All of the numbers are pointing to major trouble ahead. So I hope that you are being smart and doing what you can to get prepared while there is still time.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: crash; economy; junkbonds; stockmarket

1 posted on 12/14/2015 8:12:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If the say it is going to happen it well not.


2 posted on 12/14/2015 8:13:19 AM PST by riverrunner
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To: SeekAndFind

Is this “crisis” designed to prepare us for martial law?


3 posted on 12/14/2015 8:14:43 AM PST by fatnotlazy
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To: riverrunner

I no longer even try to understand the markets. They seem totally divorcedfrom the real economy.

I agree with you. I will believe it when I see it.


4 posted on 12/14/2015 8:15:25 AM PST by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: SeekAndFind

The bond market has been teetering for some time now. A lot has been written about the precarious place of bond holders. This should not really be a surprise, except to those who got caught thinking the party will go on without correction.


5 posted on 12/14/2015 8:19:43 AM PST by Obadiah (Jeb! Because America needs more cowbell.)
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To: riverrunner

Say again?


6 posted on 12/14/2015 8:22:59 AM PST by fwdude
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To: riverrunner

“When I saw this I was absolutely stunned. This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I have been anticipating that we would soon witness.”

he anticipated it yet he was stunned?


7 posted on 12/14/2015 8:23:12 AM PST by SPRINK
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To: Obadiah

The “party” will go on until the cocaine runs out.


8 posted on 12/14/2015 8:24:11 AM PST by fwdude
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To: Jim from C-Town

Aw, this can’t happen again, can it?

I thought there were all kinds of safeguards put in place so such a fiasco could NEVER repeat.

(Yeah, right. Those “safeguards” were only to assure that a specified few could get to cherry-pick and cannibalize the swiftly-dismembered financial markets.)

Somebody will make money out of this, and it won’t be the small players.


9 posted on 12/14/2015 8:26:40 AM PST by alloysteel (Do not argue with trolls. That means they win.)
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To: fwdude

LOL, uh yeah, apparently.


10 posted on 12/14/2015 8:29:12 AM PST by Obadiah (Jeb! Because America needs more cowbell.)
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To: SeekAndFind
"8. Credit card numbers that were recently released show that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession."

I was chalking a lot of this up to the increased utilization of virtual stores shifting shoppers to online buying. But what I've seen at the shopping centers/malls has been shocking since Thanksgiving. The car traffic I've seen is about THE SAME as I've seen during the year. I'll be not at all surprised if this shopping season tanks (not that we'll be allowed to hear about it.)

11 posted on 12/14/2015 8:30:28 AM PST by fwdude
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To: fwdude

Same observations here in FL. No exuberance at all...


12 posted on 12/14/2015 8:39:54 AM PST by Neidermeyer ("Our courts should not be collection agencies for crooks." � John Waihee, Governor of Hawaii, 1)
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To: riverrunner

Meh. Markets go up, and markets go down. Over the long haul, they go up. Bears like this article have successfully predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.

What I look for is people saying “This time it’s DIFFERENT!!!!” Hint: it’s not. But, that’s a good indicator for me to do the opposite of what the herd is doing.


13 posted on 12/14/2015 8:42:11 AM PST by wbill
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To: SeekAndFind

bump


14 posted on 12/14/2015 8:43:04 AM PST by painter ( Isaiah: �Woe to those who call evil good and good evil,")
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To: fwdude

The more people say something is going to happen the less likely it well because every body is aware and prepared for it to happen.


15 posted on 12/14/2015 12:24:59 PM PST by riverrunner
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To: riverrunner
The more people say something is going to happen the less likely it well because every body is aware and prepared for it to happen.

To a point.

16 posted on 12/14/2015 12:31:55 PM PST by fwdude
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To: fwdude

I noticed the same thing this past Saturday. I had to do some shopping at a popular mall in the early afternoon, but there were no crowds or lines anywhere. I was expecting long lines so close to Christmas.


17 posted on 12/14/2015 1:17:43 PM PST by Cecily
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To: SeekAndFind
Twenty five basis points increase in the FF rate at the next FOMC, Janet?

5.56mm

18 posted on 12/14/2015 1:32:35 PM PST by M Kehoe
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To: Cecily

The mall closest to me has one of those huge multi-plex movie theaters attached. All the traffic was around that area.


19 posted on 12/14/2015 1:32:53 PM PST by fwdude
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