U.S. will reach 400 Million Private Firearms by end of Obama Presidency

Gun Watch ^ | 1 September, 2015 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The National Instant Check System (NICS)  performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  As there are now over 15 million carry permits in the United States, and firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year, you can see that the number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold.

One of the reasons for this is that one check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

We have a good measure of how many additional firearms are added to the U.S. private stock each year.  That number is compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF).  The ATF tracks licensed firearm manufacture, import, and export numbers.  Those numbers are assembled each year.  ATF takes about 18 months to process the numbers and publish them.  We do not have data on how many used firearms are sold by dealers.  Presumably, they fall into the 40% of NICS checks that are done in excess of the new firearms added.

You can compare the ATF increase in the private firearms stock with the NICS checks done for that year.   The correlation is very high, with r= .9776.  1.0 would be a perfect fit.  At that correlation level, I have confidence in predicting the increase in private firearms from the NICS numbers.

Over the fifteen years that have been recorded, there have been 1.685 NICS checks for each additional firearm added to the private stock in the United States.  Multiplying the NICS check numbers (provided monthly by the FBI) by .5934 gives us a good approximation of the firearms added.

At the end of 2013, the private firearm stock in the United States is estimated at 363.3 million firearms.  16 million were added in 2013.   According the the FBI figures, the NICS checks for 2014 were 20.969 million.  That would be another 12.44 million firearms added in 2014.

In the first seven months of 2015, there were an additional 12.067 million NICS checks.  Another 7.16 million firearms were added.  Continuing that rate for the whole year would bring the total to 12.277 million added in 2015.

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.

At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

If the trend for 2013 only is applied to 2014 and 2015  (based on the NICS numbers they are very similar), the 400 million mark will be reached by the end of May, 2016, and by the end of the year, there will be about 409 million private firearms in the United states.

That is a net gain of between 92 million and 101 million firearms in eight years, making President Obama the greatest firearm salesman of all time.

Source for NICS numbers: From fbi.gov(pdf)

©2015 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.  Link to Gun Watch

[marktwain]

101 million more private firearms under President Obama! That is a legacy that will last!

That is more than all the private firearms that existed in the U.S. before the Gun Control Act of 1968. The number of guns in the U.S. will have quadrupled in less than 50 years.

[MrB]

That’s gotta bother some leftists...

They probably still assume that the gov’t is so all powerful that hundreds of millions of guns in private hands won’t matter.

[boycott]

I am all for gun control of liberals. If they believe we don’t need them, I suggest they turn all their guns in.

homObama = best gun salesperson ever.

[b4its2late]

It's going up almost as fast as welfare and food stamp recipients under Babmi.

[alloysteel]

The Current Occupant has been one of the best salesmen of personal firearms the world has ever seen.

I purchased the first firearm I have ever owned in my life in November 2008, and while I pray it shall never be fired in anger, it is kept maintained and in working order.

And close at hand in the home.

[nikos1121]

Yep! Bought my first gun two weeks ago... Ruger 38 Special Revolver

[ryan71]

Leftists say deporting 14 million illegals is impossible. Wait until they come after 400 million guns!

[circlecity]

"Yep! Bought my first gun two weeks ago... Ruger 38 Special Revolver"

Fine handgun. Take care of it and it will last forever. Ruger revolvers are built like tanks.

[riverrunner]

That’s a good start after the first one the rest become easier.

Than before you know it one has dozens they seem to multiply by them selves in the safe.

[eartick]

I also have been hearing ARs are flooding the market.

Have not seen a great drop in price but would like to pick up a couple more for the safe to go with my surplus ammo.

Would also like to pick up a M1A Scout or SoCom as well. Need a CQB .308 and just do not like the AR platform for this. Got a couple of AKs but prefer a .308 because of ammo supply I have.

[Envisioning]

101 million more private firearms under President Obama! That is a legacy that will last!

A legacy indeed. Hussien tries to push gun control and once again, he fails.....epically.

[moovova]

The numbers above are based on NICS checks.

In NC, a person with a CCW permit can purchase a gun without the NICS check, I believe...as they’ve already been vetted for their license.

Would those purchases be outside of the numbers above?

[rellimpank]

—while THE ONE has outdone all the others ,let’s not forget the contributions early on of Dianne Feinstein , Slick Willie and Hildabeast and all the others with the original “assault weapon” ban—

[Romans Nine]

There are already more than 400 million, a lot more than 400 million.

Gun manufacturers have never and probably never will accurately report how many they have sold or manufactured.

I think there are probably 1 billion+ in the U.S.

The reasoning behind my thought is this; there have been many stories about how many deer tags are sold every year in the United States and the relationship between that number and the number of gun owners. I can tell you from my experience that that doesn’t even come close to a fair representation.
I know at least 50 people who have from as little as 20 to as many as 250 guns who never hunt. Some haven’t hunted in years and some have never hunted. I have never seen a number that I felt after reading represented these peoples gun ownership. Combine that with the obscure records of the number of guns produced especially from years past and I think the number of privately held guns is considerably higher than ever reported.
Who would ever tell a stranger or the government how many guns they actually own?

[WayneS]

Now THAT is some “change we can believe in”.

[Arm_Bears]

And a corresponding increase in tragic boating accidents, no doubt.

[Romans Nine]

I like your style. You have good tastes.

I have never seen an M1A FTF or FTE spent cartridge. Nobody can say that for AR platform rifle.

It is a shame the Mini-14 was never perfected and made accurate past 50 yards.

[WayneS]

I wouldn’t.

But then, I don’t own any guns.

I was one of the victims of the nationwide rash of TBAs (Tragic Boating Accidents) which occurred during the aftermath of the initial election of Barack Obama in 2008.

[ThunderSleeps]

I think I need to add to that - help reach that 400 million mark. I’m thinking another handgun in 45 ACP. I have a classic full-size 1911. I’m thinking something slightly smaller and more easily concealed. Maybe one of the newer polymer 45s from Glock, S&W, Springfield...

[Man from Oz]

I have purchased a VERY large number of pistols and long guns the past 7 years and I am not ashamed to say I am a part of this demographic.

My parents shudder when they see how much of their son’s potential retirement went to guns.

What can I say? I like things that go boom! Haha.