There are already more than 400 million, a lot more than 400 million.
Gun manufacturers have never and probably never will accurately report how many they have sold or manufactured.
I think there are probably 1 billion+ in the U.S.
The reasoning behind my thought is this; there have been many stories about how many deer tags are sold every year in the United States and the relationship between that number and the number of gun owners. I can tell you from my experience that that doesn’t even come close to a fair representation.
I know at least 50 people who have from as little as 20 to as many as 250 guns who never hunt. Some haven’t hunted in years and some have never hunted. I have never seen a number that I felt after reading represented these peoples gun ownership. Combine that with the obscure records of the number of guns produced especially from years past and I think the number of privately held guns is considerably higher than ever reported.
Who would ever tell a stranger or the government how many guns they actually own?
I wouldn’t.
But then, I don’t own any guns.
I was one of the victims of the nationwide rash of TBAs (Tragic Boating Accidents) which occurred during the aftermath of the initial election of Barack Obama in 2008.
I agree, there are probably more.
These figures not only include very spotty numbers (or non-existent ones) from the 100 or so years before 1968, but they also don’t include:
1) War trophies from the Spanish-American War through Korea (and even some in Vietnam, though the Feds were already tightening up things by then);
2) Guns smuggled in throughout our history;
3) Guns manufactured by individuals; and
4) 80% receivers - even now, you can buy an AR-15 paperweight for about $40-$50, and if you have a jig (maybe $75-$100, sold by the same people that sell you the paperweight - and good pretty much forever) and a drill press (under $200 at Harbor Freight, or free by using a friend’s). I suspect that there are several hundred thousand of these out there, mostly bought during the last 7 years or so, and their production and sales are continuing to rise.
Yeah, there are more than 400 million - and if the Russians and we thought that taking control of shitholeistan, err, excuse me, Afghanistan, was tough, then let the statists consider what 400 million+ guns in the hands of pretty well educated First Worlders could do. My advice to them, same as that of the Founders, is to leave us alone.