Posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:10 PM PDT by Art in Idaho
Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. Im not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romneys lead.
As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.
From the Tampa Bay Herald: Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on peoples voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.
Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obamas problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romneys strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate. Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
The absentee numbers from Cuyahoga are dismal for Ds-—they are down 6 points from 08.
Kasich, who has been unwilling to make a prediction, this week said R would win OH and he had no doubt.
So here’s my totally anecdotal evidence on this election, as I’m a resident of Cuyahoga County...
1 - Not nearly as many Obama signs as 2008. More Romney signs than McCain had, but they’re in areas that I’d predict them to be anyway.
2 - I early voted a week ago today. There was no line at the BOE, and I’d say there were maybe 10-15 others voting at the same time (around 8am). The BOE was definitely prepared for crowds, as they had around 30 workers ready for check-ins, and around 60-70 ballot booths set up.
3 - Judging from my Facebook wall, Obama wins in a landslide. (Ha!) Some of the nonsense that’s being passed around on Facebook is disgusting.
Heard from internal poll guy (take it FWIW) dead even in OH, so turnout should win this puppy by a couple.
I’ve been saying 322 (giving Romney PA and the one EV in Maine), but otherwise it looks identical to my prediction.
Bill Cunnigham was on Hannity and said with doubt OH would go Romney.
I have been riding these political polls until I feel seasick!!
I should read my own tag line once in a while... " Change and decay in all around I see;......
O THOU who changest not, abide with me."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxqylxfYyQM
All other things being equal, in normal circumstances, there is no way a D wins OH without carrying Montgomery Co. On the other hand, an R just has to not lose it by more than 4-5000. Bush lost, but it was close.
I predict R 53% o 47%.
Just came from a Rom. rally in Milwaukee. VIP seats cuz I was with my legislator friend.
Mittens looked and acted presidential, calm and in control.
We’ve gotta win this folks.
Wish us luck here in GROUND ZERO WISCONSIN TIMES 2.
“said with doubt Ohio would go Romney”.
What do you mean, P?
He said Rom. will probably win but he has doubts? or he doubts Rom. will go for OH?
Billie is a rather negative guy so wouldn’t put much stock in what he says.
..he said take a Romney win in OH to the Bank
!
Good Luck Mountain Mary! GO WISCONSIN!! We're Going to Win!!
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