Posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:15 PM PDT by smoothsailing
Edited on 09/30/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
What I took out of the info, directed to your point, is that he claims to be Libertarian. That would dovetail with his claim that he isn’t biased towards Democrats or Republicans because he’s one of them, as he claims many other predictors are.
That he saw Obama for the anti-capitalist he is doesn’t conflict with his claim to be outside the partisan two-party split, to me anyway.
I’m still waiting to find out if he really did run for VP on the Libertarian ticket. Others are saying he didn’t, and I haven’t been able to verify his claim other than that he said it.
Intrade doesn’t... Money to be made?
Setting up an account, or trying to extract your money, is very complicated and very labor intensive.
Darn, I was hoping I could make some money.
I also thought of Root when I saw this headline.
But the posting claims this is an op/ed by Paul Ebeling jnr.
Talk about confusing...
It looks like the writer claims to have run for VP on the Libertarian ticket, which would fit Wayne Allyn Root.
But the posting claims that the writer is Paul Ebeling Jnr.
ATTENTION NV TEA MEMBERS—NOBAMA RALLY TODAY IN LAS VEGAS
Got this from a friend in Vegas..I’ll try to make it, but it’s a 6 hour drive!
FYI
NOBAMA RALLY !!!!!
Join us to protest Obama this Sunday. We will meet up at Freedom Park (850 N. Mojave) at 3pm. Bring your flags, signs and maybe an “empty chair”. We will walk about 3 blocks over to Desert Pines High School where the annointed one will be reading his teleprompter. Overflow parking at Mike Morgan Family Park on corner of Bonanza and Sandhill.
Please pass this around! and please come!!
He fails to also mention that black voters that turned out in record numbers will not do so this year.
I’ll argue that O will get over 90 per cent of black. Just there will not be nearly as big of turn out.
A very reasonable analysis. Thanks for posting this.
| Presidential ticket | Party | Ballot access[214] | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obama / Biden | Democratic | 50+DC | 69,456,897 |
| McCain / Palin | Republican | 50+DC | 59,934,814 |
| Nader / Gonzalez | Independent | 45+DC | 736,804 |
| Barr / Root | Libertarian | 45 | 524,524 |
| Baldwin / Castle | Constitution | 37 | 199,314 |
| McKinney / Clemente | Green | 32 + DC | 161,195 |
| Others—total | (see below) | 226,908 |
HE makes very cogent points, however, what he doesn’t factor in is that the Democrat machine in most urban areas is very capable of stealing elections. As we all know, you can will plurality, but if Romney loses and Florida and Ohio by just 1 vote and we end up with another 4 years of Obama.
And "they have skin ($$) in the game".
So if he is indeed a ‘Las Vegas odds maker’, where are his ‘odds’? Nothing in this article or at the link.
Don’t get me wrong - much of his analysis appears sound. But I’m curious to know if he’s merely a guy who happens / happened to be a bookmaker, who is proffering a personal opinion, or whether he’s confident enough to be putting his money where his mouth is?
One group that Obama is doing better with?
People who were doing something and are now on the Government dole. And they like it there.
Sadly, that might be a BIG group.
A 2.00 bet on Romney gets you 7.00
A 2.00 bet on obama gets you .40
This is from the former Bodog site...which is now Bovada. So they have obama in a landslide.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-02-23/intrade-where-politics-meets-the-market
If Intrade had a predictive significance, I think that by raising the barriers to entry for US gamblers, that may now be gone. (Obviously, non-US residents generally wouldn't want a strong and decisive US leader. They'd want a weak leader that their own leaders can manipulate.)
As I remember, the gamblers also predicted the SC Obamacare decision completely wrong.
Yes there is, the bedwetter David Brooks but he might of voted for barry in 2008 anyway
I sure like these numbers better than '08, professor--Ohio and everywhere else...
It was written by Wayne Allyn Root. Here is what Root wrote:
“Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.”
and this: “But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?”
Identical.
http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/why-obama-will-lose-in-a-landslide/
Where did you get the name of Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. as the author? Mr. Ebeling's name is not associated with the article from livetradingnews.com that I can see.
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