1984
We're looking more at a 1980 parallel here...
Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
1984
We're looking more at a 1980 parallel here...
The cemetaries have been voting in Illinois for years, and they all vote Democrat. They can’t let CA fall off the cliff all alone.
Just the same, it’s nice to see SOME of them are waking up.
Agreed. But the thinner-than-expected margin may force Obama to spend some time and money in IL that would have been better spent elsewhere, like Ohio or Florida.
Yeah, but this is also registered voters, not likely. Add two more points to Romney.
Voting machines don’t register, but they vote big time in hicongo.
I saw something interesting this morning in the IBD.
The column described California as two states with the dichotomy equal to going from Alabama in the rural areas to Massachusetts along the coast.
Perhaps it’s time to split that badboy up.
Cook County should be its own state.
Chicago Values = Crook County.
“Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux? This is not so far fetched.”
Yup! And remember, in 2000, Gore lost TN to Bush.
As for Obama. First off, he’s a Chicago transplant. None of his relatives are buried in that town. Secondly, I have family both in Cook County, Joliet and Springfield. Some are D’s,some are R’s...though not a one of them considers him a ‘local’.
If Chicago turnout is low (blacks and ethnic unionized whites)...anything is possible. I’d let Ryan do the talking.
I worked for Nixon-Lodge in ‘59-60 in Chicago’s NW Suburbs, so I know about a stolen election, believe me...
Then you know all about how Kennedy won the presidency!
There is only one problem (when it comes to voting anyways) every murder is another Obama voter... The dead are never dead in Chicago...
They come out once a year to vote. (sometimes twice)
Uhh no. Minnesota is the only state Mondale carried.
I doubt this poll.My daughter lives in a high rise off the Loop in Chicago. She says Republican primary day is a breeze in her building as there is never any wait in the Republican primary voting room while the Dem room usually has lines out the door.She said she once saw a person enter the room while she was there but it turned out to be a delivery guy who lost his way.
And Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.
The only thing that does is add numbers to the Democrat voting rolls -- 1 from prison and 1 from the graveyard.
He’s counting on Chicago to pull him through. They delivered for Kennedy in ‘60. They can produce votes to order: 100K fresh and hot votes coming up. Do you want fries with that?
No way. Like CA and NY, Illinois is conquered territory and is going nowhere. The dems will never let that one get away.
This poll is very timely, given the story over the weekend regarding the ubiquitous copies from the federal govt of "expired" social security numbers. "expired" my ass! These lists will be quite handy in Illinois this year.
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