Wait, Sarah, Wait (Delay Continues to be Palin's Ally)

09/25/2011 | Brices Crossroads

[Brices Crossroads]

It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.

Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.

Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.

Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.

Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.

Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.

A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.

Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:

"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."

Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.

The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.

To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.

[gardencatz]

Of course the opposite is also true. There are people who will go out of their way to vote against 0bama. His voters are demoralized and many of them won’t vote at all.

Cindie

[Lady Lucky]

Political experience vs executive experience? Let’s just say that politics is like business, without the merit.

[Leep]

Whether or not you are a supporter of Mrs Palin does anyone here believe the lefty press will not go insane if she decides to run.
It will be 24/7 Sarah Palin.
I believe it will be even more vicious than when she was merely the VP nom.
They acted like she was running for President when she was the VP nom.
THis time she would actually be running for President.

[editor-surveyor]

>> “You think that Cain cannot beat Obama, but Sarah can? Please explain why?” <<

.
Palin knows how to run for office better than anyone else in the country. She also knows how to get it done once she is in office. Cain is a zero on both of those, as well as foreign policy, where he is again a complete zero.

All he has so far is a win in the very wierd state of Florida’s straw poll, which is like a big PTA meeting.

I don’t want to diis Cain, who I belive would be a good pick for Palin’s VP.

Your impression about Palin having any significant negatives is way off. Her negatives nationally are just like her PDS nuts here: flakey goofy hate mongers that mean nothing. They’ll keep on trying to elect Kucinich, but so what?

I do not see anyone getting in Palin’s way to the White House, especially Obama. Her appeal is broad and widening.

[Catsrus]

Somehow, the DEMS have kept the myth alive that they are for the poor and working class. Yeah, sure, how’s obama doing for the blacks now? They will turn out in droves to vote for him, due to the myth and his color. To them, Clarence, Lloyd Marcus and Herman Cain are Uncle Toms. Some of them still have the plantation mentality.

[American Dream 246]

It isn’t about how long one has served, but, how well. Her record is nearly impeccable in that area.

BINGO!!! In 3 years Sarah changed everything and did more than a lot of other governors in 2 terms. Why don't you - all of Sarah haters - watch The Undefeated? $5.95 on Pay Per View on all cables. But you are so dishonest that you won't. You would take the risk to lose the argument. Yeah...I thought so.

[ari-freedom]

GIBSON: What insight into Russian actions, particularly in the last couple of weeks, does the proximity of the state give you?
PALIN: They’re our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.
GIBSON: What insight does that give you into what they’re doing in Georgia?
PALIN: Well, I’m giving you that perspective of how small our world is and how important it is that we work with our allies to keep good relation with all of these countries, especially Russia. We will not repeat a Cold War. We must have good relationship with our allies, pressuring, also, helping us to remind Russia that it’s in their benefit, also, a mutually beneficial relationship for us all to be getting along.

[vicar7]

No problem keep Gov Perry as you governor because he will not see national relevance. I lived in Texas it is a great state but Perry will not be the best representative as a Presidential nominee this time. He does not represent the views of conservatives and treats them poorly because we do not share his view. Stick a fork in him, and go back to Austin and do what you do best. We will defeat Romney on our own no problem then on to light work in Obama.

[Lazlo in PA]

It isn’t about how long one has served, but, how well.

I totally disagree. That short of spell didn't give Palin the time to make tough decisions that other Govs have to make from time to time. Even Reagan had some clunkers in his record because of the length of time he was there. There is one thing that has never been cleared up about there record as Gov. I do know that she ran on building the Gravina Island Bridge before she was against it as VP candidate.

[gardencatz]

Not so. One interview doesn’t determine ability. People don’t even remember that and those that do see the body of work she has since then. Two books, many speeches, policy analysis (through facebook, how’s that for strategy...beating 0bama at his own online game), emails. Opinions change. Look at what’s happened with Bachmann & Perry.

Cindie

[Windflier]

Keep waiting.

It's always interesting to try and get inside the head of someone who doesn't see Palin's (fairly obvious) electoral battle strategy at work.

Unfortunately, all one sees when doing such an investigation, are murky mists and criss-crossed lines of thought - never a bright insight which leads to greater understanding.

I'm not saying that you're necessarily one of those, but you just voiced a stereotypical response of those that are.

[Springfield Reformer]

Give me unlimited editorial control over many hours of tape, an insider to mislead the interviewee on how to prepare, and the motivation to take down the rising threat of a clear thinking, highly articlate, and deeply comitted conservative, and I could make even Ronald Reagan look bad.

[Catsrus]

Oh, so you live for the gotcha questions? She can pick and choose which programs she will go on if she runs. She isn’t under the McLame thumb any more. Herman’s experience is in the private sector, which is good, but, hardly qualifies him to be president. He’s weak on so many other issues.

[wtc911]

Get over it...you are being taken for a ride on the good ship palin(™) and pretending that it isn't happening. You are being played...and she is getting rich....

CHUMPS.

[NavyCanDo]

“You may be right about that, but if that is the case, why did the OP laugh in my face when I mentioned the conservative majority rallying around Hermann Cain if Sarah delays her entry much longer?”

My guess is OP is not a Palin supporter and was mocking you and any of us that are anticipating her announcement. You see them on every Palin thread and typically they are either Paulbots or solid and unmoving Perry supporters.

[skr]

Isn’t it convenient how her years of public service and fighting bureaucracy and corruption within her own party before even getting to the governorship are totally ignored? Did you watch her debate the Republican and the Democrat for the governorship?

Cain is great, and whatever happens, I hope he is in the next administration, but to imply that Palin is not articulate and only winks is simply petty. Do we really have to tear one good candidate down to build up another good candidate?

[vicar7]

Actually I think the media would support or at least be favorable to Sarah because she is the better story. I think supporting Obama could be pretty tiring. Please look me up if I get it wrong.

[editor-surveyor]

>> “And then I’ll ask her to the prom.” <<

.
And then she drives her stiletto through your instep, spins and walks off with the class stud, leaving you there to sop up the blood with one of your baseball cards.

[heiss]

Yes!
Delay worked out so well so Guliani and Fred last time/sarc

Avoiding debates make her look strong /sarc

[gardencatz]

Good Lord, she’s been grilled for years now! One thing we don’t have to worry about is her ability to stand up to grilling. I’m sure she does have a solution for SS, but I don’t even know what all the other candidates’ solutions are.

Cindie