Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I've seen this posted elsewhere and my question is this: if Romney had the ability to pull strings as you suggest, why wouldn't he simply have the delegates vote for him?
The field of declared candidates you mean? Well, may be, but certainly not compared to Sarah. Again, I may be would go with VP so he has time to learn. But NOT ready at all to be president. We need to be very serious this time or our country is gone. I did not like his backtrack about muslims...by the way. Nor him meeting with Cair and apologizing...by the way.
You actually think Cain has a better resume than Palin, what the heck are you smoking???
Once again - screw the media. They’ve thrown everything at her but the kitchen sink and I think I saw one of those in the mix too. Her opponents? They’re all attacking each other anyway - so, what makes the difference? Each candidate has his/her own weaknesses and strengths. Sarah’s strengths far out weigh her weaknesses, IMO. There isn’t a perfect candidate, they all have warts.
Well, Palin said she would announce one way or the other by Sept. 31. The wait is about over but she had best be ready for the same kind of grilling as Perry has gotten and I see almost no difference in their positions on issue. What is her position on SS?
[I think you got us Palin supporters read wrong. We are more like you than you think, and I bet if polled - if the field stays just as it is who do we want to win, it would be Cain hands down. ]
You may be right about that, but if that is the case, why did the OP laugh in my face when I mentioned the conservative majority rallying around Hermann Cain if Sarah delays her entry much longer?
Cain successfully ran a big national company. CEO. That is executive experience. Thanks for playing though.
In terms of executive experience, I think it's clear that Cain's resume exceeds Palin's. Significant business experience with demonstrated results, owner of a large company, Director on several large corporate boards, etc. There may be a valid point to be made regarding her experience in running an elective campaign, however.
Because he doesn’t know how any form of government works??? Is that good enough????
Uh, there are only 30 days in September.
LOL!! Thanks. So Palin only has 5 more days.
Because Mittens coming in 3rd in a major state needed to win the election is a real positive for him. That makes all types of strategic sense doesn't it?
People aren’t seeing that movie and you know it.
A movie is no replacement for hands on. If she wants it she should get in and show what she has.
I hope she isn’t counting on the movie. So far, it has done little. People want to see the real live person in action, not a movie which is about the past, not the present.
Expecting folks to pay to see it is absurd.
By the way, I mentioned nothing about her being a puppet, I don’t see Herman Cain as a puppet either because he is in fighting for it.
She hasn’t been around enough of the country to change minds. You need to get out from under the rock. Or perhaps Sarah will soon.
>> “Palin better get in before the conservative GOP majority coalesces around Herman Cain!” <<
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A little too much coffee today??? :o)
If Palin, rather than Cain, had won you and all the other drones would be shouting from rooftops. Hypocrites, the lot of you.
ari-freedom - lackey of the ambush press.
Sadly agree, Cain couldn’t beat Obama. Hard to believe so many people here are on his bandwagon. No political experience, that’s a deal killer right there. On the job training for POTUS? Please.
Flame away. It’s all I’ll be saying on the matter, not here to upset anyone.
The final proof of that, my good FRiend, can only be demonstrated in the endgame, and we are not there yet.
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