Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
Only if you think of wealth as little green pieces of paper.
THAT will change.
Our REAL wealth - natural resources, farmland, potable water, a creative, energetic, and armed population are the greatest in the world.
Much of the out of control spending is due to the government funding of ‘free trade’ and the trashy globalist institutions that control it.
The government quit spending money here, on federal highways and other infrastructure a long time ago. Maintenance of our highways, federal water projects, ports and our on shore military bases should not be cut, IMO. But that is what the ‘free traders’ want us to do. If we do that, Dianne Feinstein will have no choice but to sell us sub par steel beams from her Shanghai steel mills to build the San Francisco Bay bridge.
Oh wait a minute..
Good to see someone gets it.
We do not give Red China aid of any sort.
The economic howlers which pass as truth around here are hilarious nearly as bad as DU.
The US government does not give away tax dollars to China. It might buy Chinese rocket launches from time to time but that is entirely different.
The only difference will be that then, you will have a bunch of True Conservatives™ running around asking, "what happened?"
Hmmm, I’ll offer sanctuary to the girl on the right.
Some of those dollars might go to China but they aren’t ours after we give them to Pakistan.
Ridiculous, American poor live like kings compared to the vast majority of the world’s population.
Middle class Americans have far more than even the richest in the past.
It is precisely because the people are so well off that they have allowed these commies to take power.
Protectionism is a dead end and only invites retaliation. If you believe shrinking the world economy is an answer to anything you need to review some basic economic works.
Free trade makes both partners richer. It also makes both sides more competitive. Protecting inefficient and/or obsolete industries misallocates economic resources and undermines free enterprise.
Aneruca’s greatest enemies are not in Beijing but in D.C.
Still spreading the same ole crap. There appears to be some dumbasses here who will swallow it.
The level of economic knowledge among the population of the nation and even FR is abysmal. Xenophobia and reliance on class warfare are rampant.
There have been about 24 true civilizations in the history of the world according to Carroll Quigley in “The Evolution of Civilization”. Those civilizations have risen and fallen and been supplanted by their successors.
When civilization is at its peak it exhibits the same characteristics: high volumes of international trade, democratization, high levels of literacy, an increase in knowledge, geographic expansion, increased population and increased production and rising standards of living.
When civilizations collapse or are conquered most of this disappears particularly international trade and literacy. Then a Dark Age sets in until the next civilization rises.
Tariffs, quotas and prohibitions all DESTROY trade and spread misery relative to free trade. Local production ALWAYS means LESS for everyone. That is the status of a pre-feudal and feudal society where no one trades and no one travels.
There is no such thing as “global economics” only capitalist development. America’s economy is PART of the world economy and there is no escape from that FACT. Political divisions never increase the level of wealth. Free trade is NOT a zero sum game but INCREASES the amount of wealth as economists have known since Adam Smith over two hundred years ago.
Corporations are individuals under US law and have been for over two hundred years. They have certain rights which are protected by law which prevents them from being raped by totalitarians such as hedgie and his pals.
As is easily seen hedgie knows nothing about “free trade”, nor economics nor almost anything he blabbers about. He prefers to pretend our problems are because of trade rather than a government bent on destruction of individual liberty and control of the economy. He is blind to the effect of taxes and unions as well as the overbearing and crushing regulations which drive industry out of our country.
Right now I’d wager that Baraq loses any 2-way matchup and wins any 3-way matchup.
And unfortunately, it’s nearly impossible to elect a veto-proof Senate in 012.
Don’t you understand that our leaders in Washington are wise enough to save us from the perils of “crony capitalism?” Oh, wait a minute . . . .
Corporations have tried to and have corrupted the governments of the federal union often that is as much a part of the system as voting. However, here the government has corrupted the corporation not the other way around.
We cannot return to 1830 unfortunately for your ideas.
That article did not tell me much. However, I would be opposed to giving China the 65 cents/capita if it is correct.
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