Romney vs. Palin: Mitt couldn't have picked a worse day to announce (tied at 16-16)

June 2, 2011 | techno

[techno]

Comparison of results of a national PPP poll of GOP presidential contenders released on May 10 when Huckabee, Trump and Daniels were still in the race vs. today's poll post-Huckabee, post-Trump and post-Daniels showing the net difference for each candidate.

Brackets May 10.

(Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman were not polled on May 10)

OVERALL MODER SOMEWH CONS VERY CONS

ROMNEY 16 (18) 26(23) 19 (20) 11 (15)

PALIN 16 (12) 8 (13) 15 (9) 20 (13)

PAWLENTY 13 (5) 15 (4) 15 (6) 12 (6)

BACHMANN 9 (7) 5 (0) 6 (5) 13 (12)

GINGRICH 9 (13) 7 (7) 10 (14) 9 (13)

PAUL 9 (8) 6 (5) 7 (7) 10 (9)

F M 18-29 30-45 46-65 65+

ROMNEY 17(19)15(16) 14(20)14(18) 17(15) 18(21)

PALIN 20(10)13(14) 29(10)17(14) 15(12) 13(11)

T-PAW 12 (6)14(5) 5(-) 13(5) 13(6) 15(5)

BACHM 8 (5)10(8) 5(10) 6(3) 9(8) 14(7)

NEWT 10(13) 8(13) --(5) 11(11) 9(15) 11(12)

PAUL 4 (4) 13(11) 14(10) 10(11) 9(8) 7 (4)

Herman Cain Jon Huntsman

OVERALL 12 4

MODERATE 7 6

SOMEWH CONS 11 4

VERY CONS 15 3

FEMALE 10 3

MALE 15 4

18-29 19 5

30-45 14 4

46-65 11 4

65+ 9 4

DEMS GOP INDIES

ROMNEY --- 17 16

PALIN 29 17 9

PAWLENTY 5 13 15

CAIN 20 11 19

BACHMANN 11 9 10

GINGRICH 10 10 4

PAUL 6 8 16

HUNTSMAN 6 3 4

OVERALL NATIONAL SUPPORT:

ROMNEY 16%

PALIN 16%

PAWLENTY 13%

CAIN 12%

BACHMANN 9%

GINGRICH 9%

PAUL 9%

HUNTSMAN 4%

Key points:

1)Despite Huckabee, Trump and Daniels dropping out of the presidential race Romney drops 2 points overall while Palin gains 4 points.

2)In addition Palin gains 13 points among all conservatives while Romney lose 5 points. I will venture to say she would have not made these kinds of strides in a three week period without Huckabee withdrawing.

3)Palin also gained 10 points among women and did a lot better with younger voters. But what is significant is that she is now tied with Romney among GOP members whereas when Huckabee was in the race Palin was always lagging behind both Huckabee and Romney in support from Republicans.

4)But the two candidates who made the most significant gains are Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain who wasn't polled on May 10th. I would like to see more confirmation that Pawlenty's numbers are real. I already know Cain is surging. I just wonder if Cain will fizzle out due to his lack of political credentials, never having served in political office before.

5)Michele Bachmann is treading water. Cain may become more a threat to bleeding away Palin's conservative supporters than Bachmann might be.

6)Newt Gingrich is in free fall, falling 4 points overall and losing support across the board. If Newt isn't toast, he soon will be. I can't see anyway he recovers from referring to Paul Ryan and social engineering in the same breath.

7)Ron Paul is Ron Paul. And Jon Huntsman is still a non-entity.

In summary, Mitt Romney could not have picked a worse day to throw his hat into the presidential ring. Palin is now tied with him and has made a great improvement in her conservative numbers while Pawlenty and Cain apparently have momentum as well and are also on Romney's tail. Mitt Romney is currently going in the wrong direction.

Could today be Mitt Romney's high-water mark? Has Romney already peaked on the day he announces he is running for President?

[Caipirabob]

Give Mitt his props.

OK: He's a socialist scumbag who's being propped up by crossover socialist scumbags posing as repubs/moderates.

Mitt became the enemy the moment he signed mittcare.

We won't be mccained again.

[manic4organic]

I wonder if he saw Ann Barnhardt’s latest yet. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBXe3Kvg-qU&feature=player_embedded#at=36