Posted on 05/15/2011 10:41:34 AM PDT by techno
A huge obstacle in Sarah Palin's pathway to the GOP nomination and ultimately to the presidency was removed last night with Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012.
I am a number's person and with that in mind I would like to review several sets of statistics and data which indicate to me that the GOP nomination if Palin's to win or lose and that she is indeed entrenched in the catbird seat now without even firing a shot.
Here is why:
1)Palin is the darling of the TP movement. In late January Rasmussen released a poll showing that Palin had a 68% VERY FAVORABLE rating with GOP TP members, and in case you don't know many Tea Partiers also self-identify as evangelical Christians which happen according to the 2008 exit polls comprise about 40% of the GOP primary electorate then. And Palin is also very strong in that community.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier. With Huckabee's departure, I expect Palin's momentum to surge and whatever increase in support they had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because the base of the GOP will come to realize neither MB or Cain can win. They will eventually go with the winner and that is Sarah Palin, if you are a conservative.
3)72% of Republicans self-identify as conservative while only 27% self-identify as liberals and moderates. Simply put Romney does not play well to the conservative movement while Palin does. And as you can see there 2 and 1/2 times more conservatives than liberal/moderates in the GOP.
4)Rasmussen recently conducted a poll in which he found 2/3 of the GOP call themselves social conservatives and around 50% of independents do. Sarah Palin is extremely popular in this group. Once she declares the bulk of these folks will be in her tent.
5)Facebook did a survey of the 2010 elections and found that 74% of candidates with the greater Facebook membership won the House race and that went up to 82% in the Senate. Palin has close to 3m members on her Facebook while Mitt is only around 900,000.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
7)Rasmussen has clearly shown that a clear majority of the electorate want Obamacare repealed. Who of the all the candidates has issued an undeniable, undiluted clarion call for its repeal? Sarah Palin.
8)Gallup this week found Sarah Palin has the highest favorables among the GOP contenders based on matching up recognition and favorables/unfavorables at 71%. Huck was 2nd before he decided not to run.
9)Sarah Palin consistently wins online polls. These polls measure intensity. Sarah Palin has the most intensity of all the first-tier candidates (Ron Paul is not a first-tier candidate).
10)And finally Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat because of her book sales and the SRO crowds that always attend her events. Nobody among the GOP contenders comes close to matching Palin's personal and political appeal.
I know I could cite other statistics but I think you get the idea. Sarah Palin is formidable and as Mike Huckabee said a few months ago, "She may not be able to be stopped."
All candidates have their excited supporters. Some, if not all candidates have their strong detractors.
Some posters on this thread say that only Cain can win and that Palin can't win. Other posters on this thread say that Palin is the only one.
Some times posters take it over the top when they support their candidate and some times posters take it over the top when they don't like another candidate. That's not a phenomena assoicated with only Palin supporters.
For example, look at you.
You spent time posting speculation about Bristol Palin's jaw on another thread. A case can be made that that's pretty creepy.
Or a case can be made that you don't care much for the Palins.
“Oh, so you think it’s “arrogant” of her not to play state-run media’s game?”
No, I think it is arrogant presumption for YOU as a Palin supporter to state she “owns” the election. I don’t have anything bad to say about Sarah....it is her extreme followers that upset me. It is almost cultic.
Palin is likeable, and is most likely to get my vote. However, it isn’t a lock, and she has to prove to me she deserves my support. One thing she MUST do is ditch extremists that “worship” her. I find that extremely scary.
BTW - I’m a social/morale conservative. I will not vote for Romney...no use being evasive....because he is a mormon. THAT IS a cult (pseudo-Christianity), I don’t want a POTUS that is part of a CULT. I would vote for a secular heathen like Trump before Romney. My stand may “politically incorrect”, but it is where I stand and won’t be moved. Goodness, I would vote for Newt before Romeny.
Anyway, my point is straightforward. Sarah needs to ditch the personality cult that “worship” her; I find it an abomination that needs to be shut down. Then she will have earned my vote, but she needs to stay to the right of middle.
But fellow....you hurt her more than you help her.
Is Sarah Palin even running?
IMO she does great with what she does for the base now, and with her own personal and financial goals she has in place for her and her family....
Sarah Palin should do what’s best for Sarah Palin and her family period.....
Herman Cain is running, and from what I see so far I am truly impressed, as I said a few posts ago, he is the only candidate on the Republican ticket that will be able to beat Obama, and that would be a win win situation!
Palin’s negatives area as high as they will ever be, and her positives are HUGE, considering the relentless beating she has been given by the socialist sycophants in the press and entertainment world..
As soon as she starts campaigning, and people get to see HER, and not some Tina Fey simulacrum, her favorability numbers will go up, steadily and relentlessly. And her unfavorability numbers will sink like a stone.
Sarah Palin is not only NOT unelectable, she is ineluctable.
The problem is Sarah Palin cannot beat Obama, she will not get the Independent votes she will need..However Herman Cain can get those votes and beat Obama, and I think most conservatives would first like to see another conservative who will actually beat Obama in the next presidential election....
If Cain is the nominee it’ll be 1980.
I have nothing against Herman Cain, but this "analysis" is a total crock of you-know-what.
Cain is the longest of long shots - a far less likely candidate to either get the nomination or win the general election than Sarah Palin.
OK, so you enjoy blowing his trumpet. But you need to try to stay at least somewhat connected to reality or risk marginalization on the board.
So ... Palin is best at getting people to give money to and vote for candidates she gets behind, but those same people wouldn't vote for or give money to her if she asked? Is that what you're swallowing and asking the rest of us to swallow, too?
That's plain nuts.
I don't think Palin is perfect and I don't even think she's a Messiah, though I know that is nearly impossible for some FReepers to conceive of in a Palin supporter. I do think Palin's ability to "fire up the base and generate $$ for campaigns of others" is fleeting, just like ALL opportunity is fleeting.
After the 2012 elections, if Palin wins the primary and then runs for Pres and doesn't win, she'd probably still remain a powerful, strong figure in the GOP, with an excellent chance of becoming even stronger as people rally, because the ONLY way Obama (or whatever idiot liberal Democrat gets the nomination -- at this point, we have no idea who the Dem nominee will be) could win would be the Democrat party's usual cocktail of vote manipulation, manufacture, and fraud. Americans are pissed off right now -- imagine how ticked off they'd be if Palin was usurped by fraud. That would NOT happen if it was Romney or Newt or or Palenty or Daniels or any of the other business-as-usual Republicans.
On the other hand, if she stays where you want her to stay, after the election, she's a nobody, a has-been, a flash-in-the-pan. Both the establishmen old boy GOP (FOX included) and the liberal press would say so, and you would probably agree with them when they did.
And if a Democrat, Obama or some other clown, wins, Congress goes more conservative in the mid-terms; if a business-as-usual Republican wins, the country's lurch toward all-powerful government continues, congress goes more liberal in the mid-terms, voters become more cynical about Republicans being any different than Democrats, and the NEXT Democrat to get the White House will make Obama look like Boehner. Remember how we thought it couldn't possibly get any worse than Clinton, and then Obama came along? If a GOP moderate big-government establishment type gets the Presidency, understand that the next Dem president WILL be even more dangerous than Obama.
Where is you evidence for this most astonishing assertion?
From where I sit, I'd have to say that Sarah Palin can beat Obama like a threadbare rug.
No doubt Srah is the #1 beneficiary of the Huckabee Drop. Though, #2 is probably Bachmann, in that Huck has a very intense following in Iowa, and Bachmann has very close ties to Iowa (she grew up there).
Romney is probably not much better off, as Huck supporters were not at all big on Mitt (but then, who is?)
It's my opinion.
Amazing how offended you are by a mere opinion.
Life must be very difficult for you. Please accept my sincere condolences.
I ALWAYS think Palin’s biggest problem is her kool aid kook supporters....
Sniff, sniff, sniff. Do I smell another media MEME forming???? Hmmmmm
Palin needs to do what she does well - fire up the base and generate $$ for campaigns of others...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“Cheerleader meme”.
Translation: Get in the back of the bus. Be a good litle soldier and when we don’t need you anymore, we’ll send you on a one-way trip to palookaville. Just leave us you donar and volunteer lists on the way out.
I am an unapologetic Palin supporter. Does that make me a “cultist”? I think not.
What I do think is that you are quite insulting and insincere, as I don’t see anywhere in your analysis any distinction between a Palin supporter like myself, and Palin “worshipper”.
Do you in fact make any such distinction, and if so, how?
BTW, should Palin chose not to run or fail to get the nomination, I will have no problem whatsoever with realigning my preference. But in the meantime, I chose to be vocal and I chose to be openly pro-Palin.
But that ought not be reason for you to throw epithets that look like they are aimed at me and others like me. It just makes you seem... bitter and unable to marshal your arguments very well.
Where is your evidence?
Can Sarah win with the majority of Republican Votes?
I think she will win the Tea Party votes..
How about Independents?
Some are saying this..
So who among the field of possible GOP White House prospects is helped by Huckabee’s decision not to run?
Some already have announced their decision not to jump into the race — Haley Barbour, Mike Pence, and John Thune. Others who once (or briefly) enjoyed high expectations — Sarah Palin and Donald Trump – are down in the polls, marked by image problems and seen by most observers as without much of a chance of winning the nomination.
I like Sarah Palin, although I will vote for Herman Cain if he continues on the conservative quest, and focuses on the issues that are imporatant to conservative voters...
I just don’t see any evidence that Sarah Palin can beat Obama in a 2012 Presidential election...
If you know differently, I would like to see what you have.
She could beat any of those bums."
MOST republicans would not rank one of these as their best choices. Frankly,I like the second-rankers (and Sarah) ahead of the "First-Rankers," though there are times when I get nervous about Sarah (oh how I wish her voice was just a tad lower in timbre).
My favorites at his point are Palin, Cain (what fun!!), Christie, Daniels (his conservative fides are in fact strong--stronger than Romney, Trump, Paul or Gingrich). I kinda like Pawlenty
Polls say that both Palin and Cain can't beat Obama.
You trust the polls, especially this far out from an election?
I don't, nor should you.
Well thanks for demonstrating exactly what I mean. Because if you weren’t one of the kooks, there is nothing I said that would have raised your hackles and you would not have pulled a single quote without proper context to comment on.
BTW, try some Oxy Clean, it will help with those kool aid stains.
True...It’s mute point as Palin hasn’t even said she is running for President.....
No one, neither you nor I, “knows” who can beat Obama. We have opinions, basically that’s all.
I like Herman Cain. I will have no problem whatsoever voting for him in a general election. But, he remains a long shot. Low name recognition, a lack of prior elective success, never been subjected to the withering campaigns of abuse that the socialist elites will direct the way of any popular conservative, ... etc. But he can overcome these disadvantages, very possibly.
Sarah Palin has excellent name recognition, she has shown that she can excite and motivate voters, she has been in the liberal firing line for years and has survived remarkably well - she is still locked and loaded.
There is no one in the field now who is as well tested as Sarah Palin. With Huckabee withdrawn, Palin will quickly rise to the top of the polls, but that’s not really too important at this stage. The convention is still rather far off, and the primary and caucus season is also not really upon us yet. By the time they are near, the picture may well look quite different from today. Palin may well follow Huckabee’s example and stand aside.
Or she may get traction. Who knows?
The main point I want to make has already been made by others, and it is this:
Palin’s negatives area about as high as they can get, since the liberal elites have been hammering at her for what seems like forever. They have already done their worst. Can you imagine, being accused of faking a pregnancy?
Yet, she remains popular, with the tea party folks, and rightly so. She has proven steadfast.
If she runs, she can take control of her narrative, and the liberal elites will be sidelined. Her positives will rise and her negatives will decline. Others have done it, so can she.
Your point seems to be that if the election were held tomorrow she would lose. Maybe, but so what? The election isn’t tomorrow, and she hasn’t even declared as a candidate.
I’ll leave it at that, and get on to the other things I need to attend to.
Not to nit-pick, but to educate: the word is “moot”, not “mute”.
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