Posted on 05/15/2011 10:41:34 AM PDT by techno
A huge obstacle in Sarah Palin's pathway to the GOP nomination and ultimately to the presidency was removed last night with Mike Huckabee's announcement that he was not running in 2012.
I am a number's person and with that in mind I would like to review several sets of statistics and data which indicate to me that the GOP nomination if Palin's to win or lose and that she is indeed entrenched in the catbird seat now without even firing a shot.
Here is why:
1)Palin is the darling of the TP movement. In late January Rasmussen released a poll showing that Palin had a 68% VERY FAVORABLE rating with GOP TP members, and in case you don't know many Tea Partiers also self-identify as evangelical Christians which happen according to the 2008 exit polls comprise about 40% of the GOP primary electorate then. And Palin is also very strong in that community.
2)Lack of a viable stalking-horse on the right. Whatever you think of Bachmann and Cain, they are dark horses polling at most 5% of the national vote while Palin constantly polls in the first tier. With Huckabee's departure, I expect Palin's momentum to surge and whatever increase in support they had to fall by the wayside. Why? Because the base of the GOP will come to realize neither MB or Cain can win. They will eventually go with the winner and that is Sarah Palin, if you are a conservative.
3)72% of Republicans self-identify as conservative while only 27% self-identify as liberals and moderates. Simply put Romney does not play well to the conservative movement while Palin does. And as you can see there 2 and 1/2 times more conservatives than liberal/moderates in the GOP.
4)Rasmussen recently conducted a poll in which he found 2/3 of the GOP call themselves social conservatives and around 50% of independents do. Sarah Palin is extremely popular in this group. Once she declares the bulk of these folks will be in her tent.
5)Facebook did a survey of the 2010 elections and found that 74% of candidates with the greater Facebook membership won the House race and that went up to 82% in the Senate. Palin has close to 3m members on her Facebook while Mitt is only around 900,000.
6)Rasmussen found on March 29, 2011 that 9 out of 10 conservative voters are ANGRY; Sarah Palin is well qualified to play to that anger and stoke it even further. Can we say that about Mitt or T-Paw?
7)Rasmussen has clearly shown that a clear majority of the electorate want Obamacare repealed. Who of the all the candidates has issued an undeniable, undiluted clarion call for its repeal? Sarah Palin.
8)Gallup this week found Sarah Palin has the highest favorables among the GOP contenders based on matching up recognition and favorables/unfavorables at 71%. Huck was 2nd before he decided not to run.
9)Sarah Palin consistently wins online polls. These polls measure intensity. Sarah Palin has the most intensity of all the first-tier candidates (Ron Paul is not a first-tier candidate).
10)And finally Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat because of her book sales and the SRO crowds that always attend her events. Nobody among the GOP contenders comes close to matching Palin's personal and political appeal.
I know I could cite other statistics but I think you get the idea. Sarah Palin is formidable and as Mike Huckabee said a few months ago, "She may not be able to be stopped."
Reagan actually was doing better in summer ‘79 than he did even in the early winter of 1980, then came back and won hard as we all know.
Still, there were more undecideds to choose from then.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_palin_vs_obama-1169.html
These aren’t Pravda...
I saw it right here on FR a few weeks ago.
I did find some others that were closer, but Carter rarely broke 50% in those.
Obama breaks 50% against ALL of the GOP contenders...except Cain who I haven’t seen any polls for.
They became undecided and then switched to Reagan in the end.
No one is decided at this point, no one.
If you think that is true, we should just all give up.
Btw, you still haven't addressed the main point I made earlier, that any of the candidates that win will get the same treatment as she has, and mysteriously have their own set of negatives appear when it all begins, just like McCain did. I doubt one of them can stand the heat of scrutiny any better than your claims, not one.
That you don't know the MO of the democrat/media complex undermines your arguments greatly.
Here is a Rasmussen poll conducted on Sept 20, 2010 between Palin and Obama which rarely gets mention (it didn’t get much mention at the time either):
WHOSE VIEWS ARE CLOSER TO YOURS? PALIN/OBAMA
PALIN OBAMA
OVERALL 52 40
MALE 55 37
FEMALES 48 43
WHITES 58 35
BLACKS 5 87
DEMS 14 81
GOP 84 9
INDIES 59 27
CONSERV 80 12
MODERATES 28 61
LIBS 14 85
MAINSTREAM 63 —
POLITICAL CL — 68
Simply once Palin identifies what those views are and then addresses these views in her speeches and policies, she will then be poised to translate the numbers into votes.
By the way notice that Palin beats Obama by a 2 to 1 margin among independent voters with respect to which person best reflects their views.
These aren’t Pravda...
You really think Reuters, the Communist News Network, the "We're all socialiast now" Newsweek, the Daily Beast, ABC and the Washington Post aren't Pravda?
Polls this far out are meaningless and somewhat stupid.
Ask Hillary, ask McCain. Ask Kerry. Ask Gore, heck ask W...he was ahead by 5-7 points the weekend before the freaking election. Ask HW Bush how that 90% approval rating helped his second term. Ask Mondale. Carter, etc. ad nauseum.
Campaigns will be run, and everything will change.
OK, I do remember that poll.
However, we’ve seen it before - people who say their views match “candidate X” but vote for “candidate Y” because they “like” them better.
Just the same as people we all know who are personally conservative but vote Democrat every time.
I have this theory about the 2012 election:
It will be a battle royal between FEAR and ANGER, the fear perpetrated and spread by the Left vs. the anger on our side to register that anger at the ballot box.
If we allow FEAR and all its manifestations such as doubt, guilt, white guilt, acquiescence, intimidation, propaganda being cowed, acting with craven self-restraint due to political correctness and accusations by the MSM that we are too tough on Obama to run rampant in 2012 we will certainly lose.
But if take the anger of 90% of conservatives as Rasmussen reported and build a campaign around it to allow it to coalesce, simmer and then manifest itself during the general election campaign and then the vote itself, we will most certainly win in 2012.
Remember there are 2 conservatives in America for 1 liberal. There are more of us than them.
And who is the most qualified to stoke the anger, to galvanize, to take control of it and to unleash it at the ballot box with it full impact on display on Nov. 6, 2012—Sarah Palin.
No, you stop misrepresenting the Reagan/Carter polls.
ABC News - Harris Poll, January 1980
Carter 65%
Carter 31%
Not Sure 4%
If not for Palin, I might not have voted for McCain...the man who threw the election.
Regardless, as a member of the armed forces, my vote wasn’t counted. My Michigan absentee ballot didn’t show. I filled out a provisional ballot.
No More RINOs!
Damn it!
You forget how high Obama's negatives really are (the MSM and most polling outfits are hiding the ugly facts). Like Carter before him, Obama has made a shambles of our economy, and has personally brought on an energy crisis of high gas prices.
He and his minions can spin until they wear out their bearings, but average Americans are feeling the bite at the pump and at the grocery store. Unemployment is stubbornly high, serious inflation is right around the corner, and on top of that, none of Obama's 'stimulus' programs have done a damn thing to improve the situation.
People vote their pocketbooks. That's a fact, and Obama has done nothing but hurt Americans in this regard. He and his administration are making every classic error that Socialists of their ilk can make, which will continue to disrupt and destroy the American economy.
They can't turn it around, because they're left-wing ideologues who simply do not accept free market principles. They're going to make an even worse mess of the US economy, and it will be their undoing come election time.
Sarah Palin stands in direct opposition to every screwball policy of the Obama mal-administration. This will resonate with voters across the nation in 2012, and yes, a great many who supported Obama in 2008 are going to see that she is determined to reverse all of the damage that Obama's done.
More of them than you imagine will look to her to save them. They will give her their vote.
The parallels to the Reagan/Carter battle of 1980 are too similar to ignore, and so will be the outcome, should Sarah step into the race. I, for one, pray that she does.
You should post some of the polls showing McCain winning all the independents in 2008.
So funny, something like "It was worse than we thought, why if we hadn't come in it would be really, really, really bad, so bad in fact that we shouldn't go back to the old policies that made this mess"
LOL, what a convoluted slogan that's gonna be. If things don't turn around, he's toast.
If there is constant theme of folks who oppose Palin, they tend to talk in the abstract that Palin cannot beat Obama but do not also cite polls that show Obama getting roughly 42%-45% of the vote of the electorate against a generic GOP if the 2012 election was magically moved up.
So when these folks cite polls that show Obama getting 55% of the vote against Palin they are trying to suggest that Obama would get 10% more of the vote than he is currently polling and a higher percentage of the vote than he got in 2008 (53%).
And on what basis are these numbers justified by pollsters: That Sarah Palin will only command 70% of Republican voters and 70% of conservative voters. None.
The last time I checked 90% of conservatives are angry and only 10% of Republicans via another Rasmussen poll claimed that would ever entertain thoughts of voting for Obama in 2012. And 72% of Republicans self-identify as conservatives.
And how can we forget that roughly 55% of the electorate want to see Obamacare repealed and only about 40% want no changes to it. So pollsters would have us believe that 15% of the electorate would vote against their interests by voting for the one candidate who has vowed to keep Obamacare. This makes absolutely no sense.
And one other thing in case you haven’t been paying attention over the last 2 and 1/2 -3 years, Sarah Palin is a Reagan conservative.
So your telling me 30% of conservatives are going to vote for a Marxist over a Reagan conservative. Is that fantasy or what?
ABC News - Harris, March 1980 When pitted against President Carter among a cross section of 1,498 likely voters, Ford runs ahead by a 54-44 percent margin. By contrast, among the same voters, Reagan trails Carter by 58-40 percent.
These results bear out what Gerald Ford has claimed: that the polls would show him to be much more popular with the voters than Ronald Reagan. Significantly, he is ahead among just Republican voters, Republicans and independents, and in the contest with Carter he is running 14 points better than Reagan.
Sound familiar?
And here's the ABC News - Harris February poll.
That's a 32 point lead for Carter, 9 months before Reagan won by 10 points.
It's seriously pathetic. Rush read excerpts of a report (I think it was by the Heritage Foundation) that put the real number of jobs created by Obama's 'stimulus' at around 7,000 total. Total.
And, of course there's the boondoggle of the $900 Billion thrown down the toilet to bail out Wall Street.
You're correct that Obama, et al are going to say, "we shouldn't go back to the failed economic policies of the past", knowing full well that unemployment was at a manageable 4.5%, and the national debt was a full 34% less than it is today on his watch. By next year this time, the numbers will be even worse.
But yeah, "things would have been way, way, way worse, if we hadn't stepped in and done something."
I wonder how many Obot morons are going to swallow that baloney when they can hardly afford groceries, gas, or rent.
Things to consider:
1. I think that many are quiet (out of fear, out of fear of being labeled racist) about their opposition to Obama. His numbers may be much worse than being reported. The die has been cast that he is “inept” “in over his head” “not serious about the job”. That will be hard to reverse.
2. Caine—not fully vetted yet. Wise about business but what else? Also, many people will be fearful of voting for another black candidate after Obama has been so bad.
3. Sarah is pro-Israel. How are the other candidates on this issue? This gives her a spiritual edge (never underestimate the power of God to promote His person in a campaign) Many of the religious right are looking for a pro-Jewish candidate, because they see the election of such a person as the only hope for America during this moral and economic decline.
4. Sure, she has some negatives but I think she can only go “up” in polls after her trashing by the press. What else can they report now other than “old news”?
Just my two cents...
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