Posted on 11/30/2010 4:23:53 PM PST by Anamnesis
Our monthly look at the 2012 Republican Presidential field for November finds the same thing it it does every month- a very close four way race. This time around it's Sarah Palin at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, and Mike Huckabee at 16%. Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty lead the second tier with 5% each, followed by John Thune at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.
More interesting is something a little different we did this month, asking likely primary voters who their second choices would be. Here's what we found:
-If Newt Gingrich doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 31% of Gingrich supporters say Huck is their second choice, followed by 27% who say it's Mitt Romney and 19% who say it's Sarah Palin.
-If Mike Huckabee doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Sarah Palin. 34% of Huckabee supporters say Palin is the second choice, with Gingrich and Romney well back at 19% and 17% respectively.
-If Sarah Palin doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 24% of Palin supporters say he is their second choice, followed by 20% who say Gingrich and 12% who say Romney.
-If Mitt Romney doesn't run the biggest beneficiary, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, would be Sarah Palin. 27% of Romney supporters say she is their second choice, followed by 23% who say Huckabee and 14% who say Gingrich.
It should be noted on all of these numbers that the margin of error is relatively high.
The other interesting finding on this poll is that even voters who currently support one candidate in the GOP field tend to view the other ones favorably as well:
-Huckabee voters give Palin a 64/27 favorability, Gingrich a 53/23 one, and Romney a 59/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +33.
-Palin voters give Huckabee a 52/19 favorability, Gingrich a 42/38 one, and Romney a 40/35 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +14.
-Gingrich voters give Huckabee a 78/11 favorability, Palin a 67/14 one, and Romney a 61/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +52.
-Romney voters give Huckabee a 46/25 favorability, Palin a 46/36 one, and Gingrich a 41/42 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +10.
The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They're pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren't all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination? All of those things will be interesting to watch.
The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated.
The Palin folks aren't all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim...
All very telling statements, I'd say. It would seem that of all the candidates, the most conservative, broken glass voters are lining up behind Sarah.
Anyone just catch Mark Levin's segment on Palin? It was good. Very good.
I want a new list. Does somebody have a better list? How bout the Democrats? I think not...
And have been living off the Government t!t for far too long. Begone with them! ;o)
Pretty sad if that’s the best we can do.
Aside from Sarah, that list stinks.
Agreed. No list needed.
Palin '12
The same folks that preach they will be in charge of the LAW from Missouri AT THE TIME OF JESUS ON THE MOUNT OF OLIVES
NO NEWT~ NO HUCKABEE, NO ROMNEY!
Wife, singular? I thought he cheated on both of his first two wives.
OH, I love that picture. I want a large one for framing and hanging near my front door so that anyone coming in will see it.
I’m looking forward to her first state visit!
Agreed, unless he ran against Hillary; she's as disliked as he is, in which case I believe he would beat her. Given any other scenario, yes, he would get creamed.
Maybe because some people just watch LSM and listen to music. The more that Sarah gets out there with her TV show, books and other outlets the more converts she will have. Those same people will hear from the LSM that she is not ready, too dumb, just trying to make money, etc. The people may think, wait a minute. That's not what I saw and heard. She has my vote.
And dumb. Especially dumb.
No wonder Scarborough is trying to tear her down today and Romney is suddenly going on Leno even though he has nothing to talk about.
Great poster, thanks for sharing!
Everytime I see the names Newt, Romney, Huckabee et al, I feel like I’m eating last weeks left overs - enough already!
Is it too much to ask for a President who loves this country, who is unafraid to show strength, who knows what the right path is and won’t bow to anyone?! Palin 2012
Funniest part of the survey. Asked who they would pick 2nd if their 1st choice dropped out, 18% of Palin voters, 14% of Huckabee voters, 13% of Paul voters, and 7% of Gingrich voters chose their own candidate again.
Most interesting: Of those whose 1st choice was “someone else”, 16% chose one of the named candidates for THEIR 2nd choice — this suggests that those 16% have a specific candidate in mind for their 1st choice.
lastly: There is nothing in the actual data to suggest that Palin supporters would stay home, or that Romney supporters would vote for Obama. That appears to be the bias of the PPP summarist (although I’m not quite sure what it means to pick your own 1st choice as 2nd choice — I guess you might consider that “staying home”. 82% of Romney supporters chose one of the other named candidates as their 2nd choice; 75% of Palin supporters chose another named candidate. Ron Paul is the wildcard — only 66% of his supporters chose a named candidate as their 2nd choice).
Romney can tell us how he ''"longed in many respects to actually be in Vietnam and be representing our country there and in some ways it was frustrating not to feel like I was there as part of the troops that were fighting in Vietnam."'' instead of deciding to move to France during the Vietnam war to avoid the draft, while his dad was running as the anti-war, Republican Presidential candidate.
More good news here.
This is the second recent poll showing Palin as the leader (albeit slim leader), the other poll was Quinneppac.
More movement for Palin.
Huh?
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