Posted on 11/30/2010 4:23:53 PM PST by Anamnesis
Our monthly look at the 2012 Republican Presidential field for November finds the same thing it it does every month- a very close four way race. This time around it's Sarah Palin at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, and Mike Huckabee at 16%. Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty lead the second tier with 5% each, followed by John Thune at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.
More interesting is something a little different we did this month, asking likely primary voters who their second choices would be. Here's what we found:
-If Newt Gingrich doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 31% of Gingrich supporters say Huck is their second choice, followed by 27% who say it's Mitt Romney and 19% who say it's Sarah Palin.
-If Mike Huckabee doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Sarah Palin. 34% of Huckabee supporters say Palin is the second choice, with Gingrich and Romney well back at 19% and 17% respectively.
-If Sarah Palin doesn't run the biggest beneficiary would be Mike Huckabee. 24% of Palin supporters say he is their second choice, followed by 20% who say Gingrich and 12% who say Romney.
-If Mitt Romney doesn't run the biggest beneficiary, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, would be Sarah Palin. 27% of Romney supporters say she is their second choice, followed by 23% who say Huckabee and 14% who say Gingrich.
It should be noted on all of these numbers that the margin of error is relatively high.
The other interesting finding on this poll is that even voters who currently support one candidate in the GOP field tend to view the other ones favorably as well:
-Huckabee voters give Palin a 64/27 favorability, Gingrich a 53/23 one, and Romney a 59/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +33.
-Palin voters give Huckabee a 52/19 favorability, Gingrich a 42/38 one, and Romney a 40/35 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +14.
-Gingrich voters give Huckabee a 78/11 favorability, Palin a 67/14 one, and Romney a 61/26 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +52.
-Romney voters give Huckabee a 46/25 favorability, Palin a 46/36 one, and Gingrich a 41/42 one. That makes the net favorability for the other candidates an average +10.
The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They're pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren't all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination? All of those things will be interesting to watch.
For the Ping list...
Newt? Huckabee?
What a dreadful list.
Is this the same Newt that posed with Pelousi on the global warming issue?
PING! Thought you might want to ping the Palin list on this one.
Beware of ANYONE who supports these ‘men.’
He would get crushed in a general; people hate them, and 90% of them don't even know why (hint-its the lamestream and the local yokels they rely on to be spoon fed from)
“The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated.”
(very telling, and as I expected...Morning Joe voters!)
Mitt Romney: "I'm not a partisan politician. My hope is that, after this election, it will be the moderates of both parties who will control the Senate, not the Jesse Helmses."
My thoughts too. With the Tea Party being such a influence then why are the established, business as usual Republicans polling so high??? (Palin excluded)
And supported Scozzsafava. Newt is just another self promoting elitist RINO club member, and not to be trusted.
“Newt in 2nd??? Really??”
I guess there are a lot of blind and deaf Republicans.
I also left out that he cheated on his wife. That’s a vote killer for me.
((((((((Ping))))))))))))
Established means they are well known and have lots of money and connections.
Newt and Mitt should not even be under consideration.
Newt because of his support of Global Warming and his craven grovelling to Pelousi and the demonRATS.
Mitt because of his abort flip-flops and the insanity of Romney-care, which looks a LOT like 0bamao-care.
That these two should garner such high percentages of Republican support indicates to me that the majority of Republicans is ignorant and are not paying attenction.
Go back to watching “Dancing with the Stars from Hollywood that Hate Your Guts and Want to Enslave and Kill You.”
I could vote for Huckster or Newt...but not happily.
So far, my choice is Palin, whom I see as the best retail politician of the 21st century so far. And, not because of that, because of her positions on the issues.
WOO-HOO!
Put no faith in polls, especially those that have Newt anywhere near the top.
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