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More GOP birthers in heavily black states?
Brendan Nyhan's Blog ^ | August 11, 2009 | Brendan Nyhan

Posted on 08/11/2009 10:59:40 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Two new polls are out measuring the state-level prevalence of the misperception that President Obama is not a citizen of this country.

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling has released a preview of a poll showing that 47% of North Carolina Republicans think President Obama is not a citizen -- an even more disturbing finding than his previous poll, which found that 41% of Virginia Republicans believed in the myth. By contrast, a Deseret News/KSL-TV poll found that only 13% of Utah Republicans -- and 9% of Utahns generally -- said that they believe Obama is not a citizen (via David Weigel).

These results are consistent with the national figures from a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, which found that the myth was endorsed by 28% of Republicans (and 11% of Americans) overall and that it was more prevalent in the South.

What explains the state-level differences in birther misperceptions that we observe? The Washington Independent's David Weigel suggests the difference may be linked to a lack of racial polarization in Utah:

So why does rock-solid Republican Utah have fewer “birthers” than, the deep South, or even fewer than blue Virginia and North Carolina? A lack of racial polarization has something to do with it. Utah, like the rest of the great plains and western states, got bluer in 2008 despite overall McCain victories and despite having a very, very white population. In Utah, Obama got 327,670 votes in 2008, up from the 241,199 votes that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) got in 2004. For the first time since 1964, the Democratic candidate for president actually carried Salt Lake County. This happened with 31 percent of Utah whites backing Obama. Not even close to a winning margin; but in Louisiana, for example, Obama only won 14 percent of the white vote.

The reason, of course, for the lack of racial polarization in Utah is that it is overwhelmingly white. By contrast, states with large black populations (particularly those in the South) are often much more polarized along racial lines. Following up on my analyses of state-level Obama support by black population, I therefore plotted state-level GOP birther misperceptions against the state-level black population (with the aggregate US total added for context). While it is obviously far too early to draw any firm conclusions, the result is highly suggestive:

(CHART AT LINK)

Again, the plot is only for illustrative purposes -- it is far too soon to tell if the relationship with hold with data from more states. But the fit to the state data is almost perfectly linear thus far (R2=.99).


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Conspiracy; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 2009polls; article2section1; barackobama; bho44; birthcertificate; birthers; certifigate; naturalborn; obama; obamanoncitizenissue; polls; racism
"Myth?" "Misconception?" Hahahaha! No bias there. And I'm sure you know where they're headed with all this.
1 posted on 08/11/2009 10:59:40 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Interesting how some people are bending over backwards to find a racial component in this, yet when the topic is, say, crime or out-of-wedlock births they suddenly develop blindness to the issue.

Either race matters, or it does not.

I have been waiting my whole life for race not to matter.

But the left is stoking the flames of race hatred every chance they get.


2 posted on 08/11/2009 11:04:30 AM PDT by cvq3842 (Countless thousands of our ancestors died to give us the freedoms we have today. Stay involved!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Two new polls are out measuring the state-level prevalence of the misperception that President Obama is not a citizen of this country.

Can I strangle the people purposely misrepresenting the argument at hand?

3 posted on 08/11/2009 11:06:36 AM PDT by frogjerk (tagline pulled for verification)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Whats the vote distribution for those who think 9/11 was a put up job by the U.S. governement? My bet is the theory runs very well in Black,urban areas. But thats just a guess; lets do a study!


4 posted on 08/11/2009 11:11:54 AM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: cvq3842
Yeah I've been waiting for a "post-racial" America too.

So it looks like us Southern "BIRFERS" must be stoking the fires of racism once again (LOL). Never mind that Hussein is a socialist and is probably ineligible to hold office. Naw, that stuff doesn't matter!
5 posted on 08/11/2009 11:13:19 AM PDT by thecraw
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“FREE THE LONG FORM!”


6 posted on 08/11/2009 11:20:13 AM PDT by Dryman (Now, Back to Lurking)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Actually, Mormons usually get rapped big time for being racists. So whoever concocted this theory better start working on another racist angle. I bet people in heavily black states have more toe fungus too. One of the first lame fallacies you learn in logic 101. If A and B occur together, there must be a causal linkage.


7 posted on 08/11/2009 11:23:54 AM PDT by throwback
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To: cvq3842
Agreed - the presumed “trump” card that keeps getting way, way, way over-played on a daily (hourly?) basis is that legitimate opposition, or even intelligent questions about obamas history, education, policies, wish list, etc is somehow racist in its origins....

I'm somewhat hopeful that the left is finally being seen by more of the American sheeple as crying wolf (racist) once too often - and in the end it will backfire...

I'm also somewhat concerned that things may have to get very ugly in this nation before enough becomes enough....

8 posted on 08/11/2009 11:25:04 AM PDT by VRWCTexan (Obama-scare is the "real" Cash for Clunker Program!)
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To: throwback

Are they counting the people who think maybe Barry was born in Kenya but just don’t care or actually perceive it as a positive?


9 posted on 08/11/2009 11:28:36 AM PDT by Callahan
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So why does rock-solid Republican Utah have fewer “birthers” than, the deep South, or even fewer than blue Virginia and North Carolina? A lack of racial polarization has something to do with it.

I'm not seeing how this even makes sense. To people from a nearly all-white culture, blacks would seem more 'alien' for lack of a better word, while whites in a demographically diverse state know more blacks (who were obviously born in this country).

10 posted on 08/11/2009 11:28:55 AM PDT by Sloth (Irony: Freepers who call Ron Paul a "nut" but swallow all the birth certificate conspiracy crap.)
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To: thecraw

Yet another slander of the South.

Then again, back when the KKK WAS a force, we know which party ruled there . . .


11 posted on 08/11/2009 11:43:45 AM PDT by cvq3842 (Countless thousands of our ancestors died to give us the freedoms we have today. Stay involved!)
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To: cvq3842


Did someone say racists?
12 posted on 08/11/2009 12:19:37 PM PDT by roses of sharon (It is not actual suffering but a taste of better things which excites people to revolt: Hoffer)
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To: cvq3842


Did someone say racists?
13 posted on 08/11/2009 12:20:19 PM PDT by roses of sharon (It is not actual suffering but a taste of better things which excites people to revolt: Hoffer)
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To: cvq3842


Did someone say racists?
14 posted on 08/11/2009 12:20:58 PM PDT by roses of sharon (It is not actual suffering but a taste of better things which excites people to revolt: Hoffer)
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To: cvq3842
Yet another slander of the South. Then again, back when the KKK WAS a force, we know which party ruled there . . .

Yes we do, and it ain't that thar "elephant" party..
15 posted on 08/11/2009 1:26:24 PM PDT by thecraw
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Mrs. Clinton, could you please get me your husband’s and chelsea’s autograph? My niece is a really big fan.”


16 posted on 08/11/2009 6:16:06 PM PDT by Eagle Eye (Kenya? Kenya? Kenya just show us the birth certificate?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Who is Brendan, and how did he lose his cognitive ability?

(not giving an idiot site any hits)


17 posted on 08/11/2009 6:26:53 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (The beginning of the O'Bummer administration looks a lot like the end of the Nixon administration)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is the multifaceted, wise Mr. Weigel advocating racial segregation for Republicans, here?

Why, yes, it seems he is.


18 posted on 08/12/2009 12:10:06 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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