Posted on 04/23/2009 8:14:31 AM PDT by ChocChipCookie
Some more ruminations on the ammo shortage...
Die Time: In comments yesterday, Ed Foster mentioned "die time". This is exactly why you can't get, for example, .380 right now. At most manufacturers, the machinery they use to load .380 (which uses different "dies" to load different calibers) is only used for that purpose for a small portion of the year; the rest of the time it's used to load more high volume stuff, like 9mm. They churn out .380 for a couple of months, say, at the end of the year, and it's enough to hold the market over 'til the next winter.
Rumor has it that this past year's demand for 9mm FMJ was so great that Winchester didn't bother tooling up for .380 and kept the presses pumping out 9x19 ball. Even if the other two companies didn't do likewise, what percentage of the .380 market do you think that Winchester represents? Federal and Remington certainly don't load enough to take up the slack, and that causes the supply to crash to nothing.
Case Lots: Believe it or not, the kind of people that read gun blogs, post on internet gun forums, go to the range every weekend, and name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners. For fifteen years I tried to convince Joe and Jane Public to buy ammo by the case. I failed miserably. No matter how much you explain the price savings when buying a thousand rounds at a lick, or the fact that ammo doesn't go bad, most people would look at you and say "I don't know, $100 seems like a lot of money, and what am I going to do with a thousand rounds of 9mm?"
The ammunition manufacturing and supply pipeline is simply not set up for the average consumer to walk into Wal-Mart and buy two cases of ammunition. If your average shooter normally bought 100rds/month to take to the range and decided to buy two cases instead, "just in case", he has just bought more ammunition at one lick than he would normally buy in two years. Think about that for a second, and then multiply it out over several million shooters suddenly buying way outside their normal pattern.
Production Capacity: The manufacturers are running full tilt. The only way they could make more ammunition is to build more plant, and they are not going to do that for several reasons. The first is that this bubble will contract sooner or later. Joe and Jane Sofaspud are going to realize that they really don't need 10,000 rounds of Winchester .45 in the basement, and that minivan payment isn't getting any smaller. They'll sell it to Annie Appleseed and Ivan Ipsc and demand will cool down.
The second reason they won't build more plant is financial. Remember that economy thing? Yeah, well it's still bad. Business loans aren't really easy to get right now, especially for businesses that are square in the middle of the Media-Congressional Complex's crosshairs. When the stroke of a pen could cut your sales by 50%, you are not what lenders call a "good risk".
Supply & Demand: Right now prices are high not because of transport costs or raw materials costs, which drove the price spike of '05(really an honest adjustment, as ammo prices had stayed almost artificially flat for the better part of a decade,) but because of simple supply and demand. If I put my widgets out for $1, and the first guy that walks in the store buys them all, I'm obviously not charging enough for my widgets.
As demand stays high and supply stays small, prices keep going up. They will go up until they become high enough to cool demand. As demand cools, supply will build back up. In order to move the new supply, prices will come back down somewhat until they reignite demand. This is Econ 101, folks, and it's as predictable as 32 ft/sec² or π*r².
'Name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners'.
There's a real practical reason to 'name your gun' – then you don't have to divulge as much information when referring to it.
As in “let's take Sparky to the range”, instead of “Let's take the 22 to the range” - or something like that
I’ve taken deer with one .22.
Was just at Walmart.
As usual, ammo shelves are bare, no 22 or 9 to be had.
I’m gonna buy a nice Crosman 1077 to practice with.
And maybe something in the 1100 fps range for “bigger” game.
The article ins interesting speculation, but its wrong.
It’s ALL about demand. The 380 theory is entirely wrong, because that is a high-production caliber that does not swap out with 9mm. This writer evidently didn’t talk to anyone in the industry.
The makers are running round the clock, and eventually will catch up. That includes bullets, cartridges, powder, and primers.
No government conspiracy. Just a healthy market fear of a future government conspiracy.
Consider the reality of the entire market trying to buy a potential lifetime supply. The only real questions that industry insiders debate are how long until the demand is satisfied, how long it will take to get there, and how hard or soft will the end of the bubble be for the makers?
That's why I named mine "George". In discussions with my wife where others might overhear, one could say things like "I might be in the city late tonite, but I'll have George to keep me company".
Exactly.
Unfortunately these days, you have to be Real careful what words you use.
There are those that would literally lose their minds if they heard the word ‘Gun’, or anything similar.
They can't lose what they don't have.
theres plenty of 40 S&W ammo out there..but nobody I know but cops shoot that caliber.
I cant get a box of 45 ball at all around here.
Here’s my plea -
to you folks that have more than your floor will hold,
please, lighten up and let someone else have a chance to buy some...
There are those that would literally lose their minds if they heard the word ‘Gun’, or anything similar.
They can't lose what they don't have.
LOL!!!!! touche'
Employment tip #1526: No matter how excited you are over your first firearms purchase, refrain from yelling to your co-workers "I've got a gun!"
Not quite, a good EAA .380 has protected me for many years, it has slightly less power than a 9mm (950+- fps vs 1100+- fps), but in the common self-defense range of 0-10ft, it is just as deadly. ;-)
to you folks that have more than your floor will hold,
please, lighten up and let someone else have a chance to buy some...
I’m on a waiting list at Cabela’s.
When I placed the order they said that they expected the backorder to take 1-2 weeks. I knew at the time that that was not accurate.
There’s plenty for sale now for less than $0.30 per round. Not the fancy defense rounds, but good practice ammo with reloadable brass.
For example:
http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/cb.aspx?a=247315
I cant get a box of 45 ball at all around here.
None right now at practice prices, but you can get on the list for June delivery.
I fine tuned the sights for my sister so she could bulleye the local vermin in her neck of the woods with her air rifle.
I’d have to call all of mine George, and give em last names too.
Almost everyone I know shoots .40 here. There is very little .40 around. A guy I know felt like he scored big time by finding 5 boxes of 50 rounds each.
I reload them myself, I’d be SOL otherwise.
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