Posted on 10/23/2008 5:13:29 AM PDT by theothercheek
Polling data suggests six percent of whites will not vote for Obama because he is black. But early voting trends in eight states suggest that Obama's under-the-radar black voter registration drives and get-out-the-vote efforts will bring this voting bloc to the polls in record numbers. Thus the percentage of voters who will vote for Obama because he is black will be greater than the percentage of voters who will not vote for Obama because he is black - a "reverse" Bradley Effect. Read more here.
(Excerpt) Read more at thestilettoblog.com ...
There’s a dual presumption here: that the black vote will expand this year, and that it will uniformly go for Obama. The latter MAY be true depending on a few factors, but I very highly doubt the former.
As the vast majority of Pubbies and Reagan Democrats vote (uniformly AGAINST "that one"), a McCain-Palin victory will "miraculously" appear and be blamed on race hatred.
When in truth, the voting will be due to this:
"I voted for the Hottie
Not for the Haughty"
Cheers!
In other words, massive fraud.
Can anyone help me out here? Maybe MA is odd (well, you know what I mean) but as far as I know, here in MA there are some people (not many) who use absentee ballots, but the vast majority of people show up to vote on the first Tueday of November, they wait in line for maybe 15 minutes, they vote and then go about their business.
This year, I have seen so many stories about "early voting" in other states. It seems like voting has been going on for weeks, and people have been standing in line -- literally -- for hours, so that they can vote.
I truly don't understand why this is happening, unless some kind of shenanigans is being done.
Let’s hope you’re right. However, be prepared for this election to get thrown into the courts, just like in 2000. And this time, be prepared for Kennedy to go the other way.
Change....will Michelle change the name and color of the White House?
I went on my city’s Board of Elections web site to see if I could vote early - I was going to be out of town and could have extended my stay past election day - and found no information on this. As far as I can tell, I can only vote on Nov. 4th.
Personally, so long as:
McCain + Undecided > Obama
I'm convinced McCain will win the election. Those people aren't really undecided, they're just being polite and tp prevent their cars from getting keyed.
This theory is riddled with problems:
1) The ‘Bradley Effect’ has nothing to do with whites who won’t vote for a black candidate. It is about whites who are too afraid to admit they are not voting for the black guy because of Political Correctness.
2) This assumes that the ‘racist white vote’ won’t be out as strong as the ‘racist black vote’. I believe anyone who wouldn’t vote for a candidate because he is black is likely to go out of his way to vote against that candidate to the same extent that someone who would vote for a candidate because he is black would go out of his way to do so.
3) This assumes that blacks are evenly distributed in the country. Again, this is not the case, many states where 0bama needs a high black turnout to win have low black populations, and the states where blacks are most heavily concentrated also happen to be the deepest ‘red states.’
Blacks make up less than 13% of the total US population, but upwards of 30% in some southern states. But these states have voted close to 70% for Republicans in recent elections, and 0bama has no realistic chance of winning any of them.
Hint: if it WERE new voters, Obambi and the MSM would be crowing about the tidal wave.
Vote for the Hottie
Not for the Haughty
Cheers!
All this talk about “The Bradley Effect” is just another method to intimidate you into voting for 0bama. As far as I’m concerned, I’m more worried about “The Stalin Effect” if he gets into office!
A slight clarification on point #3.
States with the highest black concentrations tend to be either deep red or deep blue. Once characteristic of swing states is they tend to have low black populations.
0bama’s get-out-the-black-vote will be largely wasted on states he either cannot win or will not lose. The black vote has very limited power in the states where he needs to get-out-the-vote the most.
Ohio is only 11% black. NC and VA worry me, though.
I agree with that, and I agree that McCain will win.
I am staggered, however, by the media coverage. This morning, the radio had a story about John McCain, and how Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket (no mention of Biden's contribution to the other side) and they had a soundbite from McCain stating how proud he was of Palin and of America. Then (for balance!) the radio did a story on Obama -- speaking to enormous crowds! A message of hope! A voice for change! He pointed out how McCain isn't telling the truth, how unAmerican much of McCain's divisive politics really are, how poor people will suffer under McCain, how the rich will benefit! And -- lastly -- Obama criticized McCain for running a negative campaign, full of attacks on Obama.
I certainly hope the public sees all this and says -- "Huh?"
Blacks have been told since “The Great Society” that all they have to do is kick back, watch TV and wait for the check. It’s “ok” if you do nothing, Big gummit will take care of all your needs. This is why most stay home. No responsibility necessary. Under 50 (MTV and BET generation) stay home. Over 50 vote because they remember the struggle for civil rights in the 60’s. IMO.
It’s impossible to figure out the “Bradley” effect when the effect is in and of itself, a lie. Some don’t tell the truth about their vote for Hussein out of fear. How do you measure “some”?
THE motivator (for McCain backers) in this election is fear. People of all walks will vote out of fear of BO. Fear is the best motivator too. Nobody fears McCain. Most vote for Hussein out of hatred for Bush. Or they have spirals in their eyes as they chant “change” & “hope”.
Here is one very possible scenario that hasn’t been discussed.
Swing states:
0bama — Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virgina, Wisconsin
McCain — Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Electoral vote count:
0bama — 267
McCain — 271
If McCain can take Pennsylvania and New Hampshire then he could afford to lose both Virginia and North Carolina.
Another factor that the Bradley Effect will have is experience:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2112754/posts
It is pretty lopsided favoring McCain: Experience and Ready to Lead. That will figure into the Bradely Effect too. The MSM just can’t think beyond the obvious!
I know the story you are referring to about the keyed car. For that reason I never put a McCain-Palin bumper sticker on my car.
I hope talk of a “reverse” Bradley effect motivates McCain voters to match the 95 percent lock that Obama has on the black vote and nullify all his ACORN-tainted voter registration drives
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